August 2023 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Had about 0.02” in spotty showers today with a two day total of 0.90”.

[Bgoney]

IMG_0532.jpeg

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Gorgeous today then we warm up a bit tomorrow ahead of our next front. Scattered storms possible from about 6pm thru 11pm Thursday. If you get one or two of these, up to 0.20" is possible. Of course a lot of you won't see anything. A gorgeous Friday and even Saturday isn't too bad. I have no changes for Sunday into next week with 90 on Sunday and the low 90s thru at least Wed. I am still thinking we get that front next Thurs to turn off the 90s and bring in a few scattered storms as well. We should revert back to our +PNA pattern again unless the tropics say otherwise as we get into late August. Currently I don't see any widespread soaking rains over the next 7-10 days.

[tron777]

I am seeing some good news here. I maybe dead wrong about the heat lasting until Wed. Some modeling is getting the backdoor front in here sooner, like Tues or Wed instead of later in the week. We get a series of these fronts and we look to be on the edge of the heat to the SW and the cooler air to the NE. If this is an actual trend, we may only have a shot at the 90s for 3 days. Sun, Mon, and Tues. That would be nice (unless you like the heat lol) So let's watch that on the guidance over the next few days. I may certainly need to change my forecast. I still like the temp call that has already been outlined with the low 90s being as hot as we get.

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

I picked up a combo .65" from Mon / Tues.

[tron777]

Low to mid 70s across the region at this hour with dews in the U50s to L60s. Pretty good stuff for mid August! It's a shame those 90s have to make an appearance again but it is August after all. At least they don't appear to stick around long. Oh by the way, no 90s have been observed so far this month at CVG and that's a new record for the first 15 days of August. No 90s through the first half of August has never happened before until now. Records go all the way back to 1872 for Cincinnati.

[MVWxObserver]

Low to mid 70s across the region at this hour with dews in the U50s to L60s. Pretty good stuff for mid August! It's a shame those 90s have to make an appearance again but it is August after all. At least they don't appear to stick around long. Oh by the way, no 90s have been observed so far this month at CVG and that's a new record for the first 15 days of August. No 90s through the first half of August has never happened before until now. Records go all the way back to 1872 for Cincinnati.

It was something to see a lot of the Redlegs fans yesterday evening via Bally Sports wearing hoodies or other jackets as the air was an unseasonable fall feel at the Cle vs Cincy game. Unfortunately "Indians" starter Logan Allen and crew were on fire and shut out my guys 3-0!

Will see if we can avoid an Ohio Cup sweep tonight at 6:40!

Currently 72 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 78.

[tron777]

12Z GFS cuts the heat off perhaps even by Tuesday now lol So much for a "heat wave."

[winterstormjoe]

12Z GFS cuts the heat off perhaps even by Tuesday now lol So much for a "heat wave."

Hey Les, I'm kind of surprised that the models aren't showing some MCS activity to our SW as this back door cold front is coming in to squash the heat back to the SW. I'm just wondering if a boundary will set up with some activity moving SE early next week?

I'm glad we set some kind of record this summer!

I keep seeing chances of Hilary moving into southern CA next week, although weaker from the predicted major hurricane.

[tron777]

12Z GFS cuts the heat off perhaps even by Tuesday now lol So much for a "heat wave."

Hey Les, I'm kind of surprised that the models aren't showing some MCS activity to our SW as this back door cold front is coming in to squash the heat back to the SW. I'm just wondering if a boundary will set up with some activity moving SE early next week?

I'm glad we set some kind of record this summer!

I keep seeing chances of Hilary moving into southern CA next week, although weaker from the predicted major hurricane.

Hi Joe. Typically you don't get a lot of moisture from backdoor cold fronts since they move from the NE to the SW. Easterly flow is usually dry for us. However, if Hilary can work its way into the SW US and if the flow remains as some guidance suggests, some of that moisture would go up and around the heat ridge and then drop SE into the Ohio Valley. That would be a way that we could get some beneficial moisture in here. Otherwise if that does not happen, then we need a Gulf tropical system to move north into the OV, otherwise it will be a dry flow.

[tron777]

12Z Euro gives CVG 0.17" of rain with tomorrow's cold front. After that, it is bone dry thru Day 10. It's a bit slower to back off the 90s then the GFS, but eventually the Euro gets there and keep the upper 80s in place.

[tron777]

80 at CVG today, 81 here. A decent day for mid August. We will be tracking our cold front along with scattered storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not everyone will get wet but I hope you do since this could be it, rain wise, for a little while.

[tron777]

A couple of Tornadoes occurred in our forecast area within the last few days.

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
942 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN HARDIN COUNTY OHIO...

Start Location...Kenton in Hardin County OH
End Location.....2 ESE Kenton in Hardin County OH
Date...........................August 12, 2023
Estimated Start Time...........12:46 PM EDT
Estimated End Time.............12:52 PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating........EF1
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...90 mph
Maximum Path Width.............200 yards
Path Length....................2.2 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon..............40.6396 / -83.6148
Ending Lat/Lon.................40.6343 / -83.5746
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries.....0

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Wilmington Ohio has confirmed an
EF1 tornado in Kenton in Hardin County, Ohio.

The tornado is believed to have first touched down in the
vicinity of W Espy Street and Robinson Ave. Some minor tree limb
damage was noted, with some sheet metal damage to buildings in
this area, including roof damage to one structure between W Espy
Street and US Route 68. Damage was more significant and
concentrated in a neighborhood near Detroit Street and Main
Street, especially between Railroad Street and Letson Street.
Numerous trees and large limbs were downed, and numerous homes and
garages had at least some minor roof or fascia damage. The winds
were likely the strongest just north of Letson Street, where one
garage was flattened, and another outbuilding had its roof and
second floor removed. Debris from these structures could be found
at least a quarter mile downstream. Winds at this location were
estimated to be about 90 MPH. Additional tree damage and minor
structural damage was noted on the east side of Main Street,
extending from near the Hardin County Sheriff Office through Brumm
Street.

On the north side of the Scioto River, tree damage was observed
near and south of Lick Street. This includes one stand of trees to
the south of the end of Stevens Street, with several tree tops
snapped off. The tornado then traversed an uninhabited area, but
minor tree damage was noted near the intersection of Bales Road
and County Road 175. In addition, small pieces of insulation were
found near this intersection and in the field to the east. This is
where the tornado is believed to have ended.

The National Weather Service would like to thank the Hardin
County Sheriff Office and Kenton Police Department for their
assistance with surveying the damage from this tornado.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

HATZOS/MCGINNIS

 

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
456 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN FRANKLIN COUNTY INDIANA...

Start Location...4 NNE Brookville in Franklin County IN
End Location.....6 NE Brookville in Franklin County IN
Date...08/14/2023
Estimated Start Time...06:32 PM EDT
Estimated End Time...06:39 PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85 mph
Maximum Path Width...150.0 yards
Path Length...2.8 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...39.4758 / -84.9611
Ending Lat/Lon...39.4714 / -84.9099
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Wilmington Ohio has confirmed an EF0
tornado near Brookville in Franklin County, Indiana.

The tornado is believed to have first touched down in the vicinity
of Palawana Circle and Deer Ridge Road. Some minor garden and tree
branch damage was noted in this area. From there, the tornado
continued east, affecting several homes between Garr Hill and Deer
Ridge Roads. Several homes in this area had minor roof and siding
damage and numerous trees were damaged and/or uprooted. At one
residence, a back yard barn was completely destroyed and a house
garage had partial wall and roof collapse. This is where the tornado
reached its maximum intensity with winds estimated to be around 85
mph, or high end EF0. The tornado then continued east, causing
sporadic minor tree damage along Pea Ridge Road. After crossing
State Route 101, more significant tree damage occurred in a forested
area just to the south of Pea Ridge Road. The tornado then appeared
to cross some farm fields before lifting along Liberty Pike, where
some minor tree damage was noted.

Most of the damage was along a narrow path with some minor
convergent patterns noted in the damage path. Drone footage and
eyewitness videos from the public were also used in this assessment.

The National Weather Service would like to thank the Franklin County
EMA office for their assistance with surveying the damage from this
tornado.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

JGL

[tpweather]

12Z GFS cuts the heat off perhaps even by Tuesday now lol So much for a "heat wave."

Les another wicked heat wave lol. Made it Ashtabula and not happy since there is no snow on the ground. Heading to Ithaca in the morning. The models are not only cutting back on temps but like you mentioned Les the duration. Without the tropics getting involved it makes even August cold front to move through our area. Probably will not be on here Thursday and hopefully back home later Friday.

[MVWxObserver]

12Z GFS cuts the heat off perhaps even by Tuesday now lol So much for a "heat wave."

Les another wicked heat wave lol. Made it Ashtabula and not happy since there is no snow on the ground. Heading to Ithaca in the morning. The models are not only cutting back on temps but like you mentioned Les the duration. Without the tropics getting involved it makes even August cold front to move through our area. Probably will not be on here Thursday and hopefully back home later Friday.

Have a great trip Tim and we wish your grandson the very best in his college career!

My folks have some friends from their college days at Anderson U. in Indiana who reside in Ashtabula.

[tron777]

12Z GFS cuts the heat off perhaps even by Tuesday now lol So much for a "heat wave."

Les another wicked heat wave lol. Made it Ashtabula and not happy since there is no snow on the ground. Heading to Ithaca in the morning. The models are not only cutting back on temps but like you mentioned Les the duration. Without the tropics getting involved it makes even August cold front to move through our area. Probably will not be on here Thursday and hopefully back home later Friday.

Safe travels my friend! Upstate NY is beautiful and the people are very nice also!

[tron777]

Good morning folks! We will be tracking two rounds of storms this afternoon and evening. A marginal risk is in place for our N counties as gusty winds and even some hail is possible in the stronger cells. For Cincy, thinking Round 1 gets in here in that 5-6 pm range then 8-9pm or so with the official cold front for round 2. Both lines should feature scattered storms so again not everyone will get wet. Amounts won't be particularly heavy 1/4" or less in most cases.

The rest of the ongoing forecast remains unchanged. Fri and Sat are awesome! 90s likely Sunday and Monday as the humidity goes up. Back down into the upper 80s Tues and Wed of next week. No rain for the next 7 days or so after today. All eyes will pretty much be on the tropics down the road for the longer term.

[cloudy72]

Good luck to everyone as I agree with Les indicating today will prob be the last chance of appreciable rain for awhile.

[tron777]

It isn't looking good that is for sure. That East Pac tropical system (currently hurricane Hilary) may actually delay the ridge from retrograding to the West as we once thought. The low 90s may have an extended stay now as a result along with the dry conditions that will be occurring after today's cold front.

[tron777]

[tron777]

SW winds are getting pretty gusty out there ahead of the cold front in that 20-30 mph range. That will continue until we cloud up later this afternoon. Radar wise, it's not looking too bad attm. We will need to continue to track that line of showers and storms as it moves very quickly to the SE. Do we get a prefrontal line to form out ahead of the front to disrupt what is currently going on? Or is that one line we are seeing on radar, is that it? Hopefully we do not see the pre frontal line out ahead of it so that way we get more bang for our buck once the front does come in this evening. This is it. If your location does not score with this, we are dry for the next week, if not longer. Good luck to all of you!!!

[tron777]

Looks like the southern end of the line is weakening. Where have we seen that before?

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS has the heat from Sunday thru Saturday of the following weekend. It even has low 100s for a couple of days in there as well which we know is over done. I still like the low 90s call that we've had out there for a while. However, the mid 90s are certainly reachable as the ground dries out from previous rains. Can't rule that out, but I do not see any 100 degree heat for us at all. 90 to 95 looks good for next week. The GFS also lost the Gulf tropical idea too so we get a nice cold front by Sunday Aug 27th

[MVWxObserver]

----