Absolute Vorticity

After yesterday's bust I'm taking models and output with a grain of salt right now. I'm wondering how much the extreme heat is influencing these models.

Storms are fired up to my north and shall see if anything make it in. Had some very light rain here earlier. Nothing to measure though.

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I hit 80 today. No precip recorded as of this post. Don't think we'll be seeing much now until we see if the Thurs night MCS martializes or not.

Picked up .30" for Mon for a combo .78" since Sun.

MCS or No MCS on Thurs night which dictates are chances on Friday the last day of June.

Good Morning and next few days will be pleasant before the humidity kicks in on Thursday. The big heat surge heading this way but looks to be blocked off before we get out of control. 2012 is a year folks bring up and I remember that well and in early to mid July we were in western Kentucky at a state park for a few days and I can remember the heat index between 110-120. That is possible in southwest Kentucky later this week. Looks like we get very humid but hopefully an mcs or two will keep the temps down in our area. These heat surges are strong so I can see Louisville getting heat index close to 100 by weeks end if the mcs stays away.

Then we have a weak cold front that looks to stall nearby over the weekend into early next week. This could lead to more rainfall hopefully but not spoil plans outdoor for an extended period. Next week looks to be more of a normal early July period with highs in the 86-90 range and a daily chance of a thunderstorm and then by late next week a stronger cold front may move into the area but way to soon and sometimes models can push these fronts further south and then back off somewhat closer to the time period.

Btw picked up 0.09 last night so at least the plants are getting just enough rainfall.

Way back on May 9 is when the ongoing drought for the Midwest and OV began. Isolated slight improvements for parts of the OV the past week( except near Cvgland). The Midwest is no doubt in a more dire need (crops) . Both need to see substantial improvements before the hot temps finally show up in a more steadfast way. The saving grace so far has been the often mentioned cool June temps.

The cool temps esp at night have really helped the drought to not get out of hand too quickly. Yes, the lower dews help to dry the gorund out faster but IMO the lack of 90s and major heat has also been "less stressful" in my opinion on the lawns and gardens. We always need more rain, but with a watering or two from you and what little bit some are seeing from Ma Nature, it's been just enough to keep most things green. I had to break out the sprinkler in May into early June a few times, but after that period, I've been getting just enough rain (barely) each week to keep things going.

For the possible Thurs night MCS, the overnight GFS looks to do the Cincy Splits Ville again with storms going both and south of us. Euro nails the Tri-state with the MCS.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 8:42 am For the possible Thurs night MCS, the overnight GFS looks to do the Cincy Splits Ville again with storms going both and south of us. Euro nails the Tri-state with the MCS.

Hey Les, I hope we can get on the MCS train as I look forward to them in the summer like I do with the snowstorms in the winter. I miss the ring of fire this year, hopefully we can get in on the action before that dreaded heat overtakes the tristate. Hopefully not or at least short inclusions of it this summer!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 8:42 am For the possible Thurs night MCS, the overnight GFS looks to do the Cincy Splits Ville again with storms going both and south of us. Euro nails the Tri-state with the MCS.

Hey Les, I hope we can get on the MCS train as I look forward to them in the summer like I do with the snowstorms in the winter. I miss the ring of fire this year, hopefully we can get in on the action before that dreaded heat overtakes the tristate. Hopefully not or at least short inclusions of it this summer!

I'm good with it as well. Just not on my party day lol

Here's BG's latest thoughts:

Great Video by Brian and once again he went over everything we have talked about on here. No doubt we are in a sweet spot imo starting late Thursday-Sunday. When these develop they tend to hit the same sport for a few days and you have big time winners and some folks get missed. I agree with Brian that Louisville could get into the heat index over 100. Not sure we get there but low-mid 90's are possible if we miss the rain.

Again this is a little further south than normal for these complexes this time of year but with the big surge of heat and humidity some of these complexes will have damaging winds and of course heavy rains. Love to see them in the overnight hours and have the daylight hours dry but again until these form hard to track like Brian mentioned.

Saw this morning an interview with a rancher in TX and talking about the early extreme heat this year down that way. He also raises honeybees and I'd never seen bees go to a water source to collect up some to take back to their hives. Interesting lesson about nature.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 10:56 am Great Video by Brian and once again he went over everything we have talked about on here. No doubt we are in a sweet spot imo starting late Thursday-Sunday. When these develop they tend to hit the same sport for a few days and you have big time winners and some folks get missed. I agree with Brian that Louisville could get into the heat index over 100. Not sure we get there but low-mid 90's are possible if we miss the rain.

Again this is a little further south than normal for these complexes this time of year but with the big surge of heat and humidity some of these complexes will have damaging winds and of course heavy rains. Love to see them in the overnight hours and have the daylight hours dry but again until these form hard to track like Brian mentioned.

Great post Tim and timing is key with everything in weather. If we can get the action to time itself at night or in the morning then the afternoon hours when most people do stuff and into the early evening would be good. Would love to see that timing occur!

76 today here, that's it thanks to the haze and smoke. 80s tomorrow expected with more in the way of sunshine but we will still have some haze and smoke around until Thurs. That should improve should the wind pick up and / or an MCS move thru that evening or overnight.

Today was just an ugly grey/haze/smoke kinda day. I will take the heat over this crap. Looks like it is going to pour rain any moment. But,nothing on radar.

Yep, another cloudy, windy day in June. How many is that now?

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 6:35 pm Today was just an ugly grey/haze/smoke kinda day. I will take the heat over this crap. Looks like it is going to pour rain any moment. But,nothing on radar.

Another day of the same pattern we’ve been in for 6 or 7 weeks. Thankfully that pattern is somewhat breaking down , although the missing player is still a SE ridge. Hopefully the Texas ridging placement can deliver some much needed relief in the moisture department for the eastern cornbelt

Smoke and haze / fog are a major factor today in terms of visibility. Then we see how the timing and track of the t-storm complexes are beginning Thurs night.

Friday gives us our best shot at a 90 for the contest.

Let's all wish a very Happy Birthday to kywthrluvr! Leslie, I hope you have a wonderful day today!

Happy Birthday Leslie. Hope you have a wonderful day!!!

Good Morning and a nice hazy/smokey day in tap for us locally. Before I get into the forecast the media once again has no ideal what they are putting out there or just plain dumb. Yes we have seen many more days with smoke in the air this season because of the fires in Canada. They act like this is climate change but this happens every year so why so many more days with smoke in the air. Very simple wind direction in May and June this season has been out of the north/northwest a lot more often than usual and that is why more days with smoke. Matter of fact I was reading this has been a below normal season in Canada in terms of fires so if this is climate change then would this be for the good. Funny how climate change is always bad and never a good side to it which just makes it more of a scam. Will post my thoughts on the upcoming weather after this rant.

Getting ready for some heat and humidity. The heat ridge will build over the next few days but how far north is the question. Looks like we will be just far enough north and east to get into any kind of heat advisory. Still going to be quite warm and the humidity will no doubt be the worse we have seen this year. Will mow my yard this evening and then next Tuesday before heading to Wisconsin for about a week. Hopefully some nice mild days up there when I visit.

Concerning rainfall over the next several days and again with this kind of pattern you can get several days of the mcs rotating around and location will be determined by how far north the heat dome goes. I still believe we are in a prime area and have a rather good shot of getting 1-3 mcs moving through before a system heads this way later in the weekend and early next week which will push the heat dome further south and we end up with your everyday thundershowers in the afternoon.

Can this help in the drought and sure but again its summer and some areas that are having this short term drought will be missed but at least I can see some areas improving quite a bit as well. Once we get these dew points higher it helps in rain production but also it can take much more moisture out of the ground and if you get missed by the rain then you can see more in the way of trouble for the lawns and some bushes and of course flowers. Like Bgoney mentioned the eastern part of the plains where tons of food is grown could really use the rainfall.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 7:59 am Good Morning and a nice hazy/smokey day in tap for us locally. Before I get into the forecast the media once again has no ideal what they are putting out there or just plain dumb. Yes we have seen many more days with smoke in the air this season because of the fires in Canada. They act like this is climate change but this happens every year so why so many more days with smoke in the air. Very simple wind direction in May and June this season has been out of the north/northwest a lot more often than usual and that is why more days with smoke. Matter of fact I was reading this has been a below normal season in Canada in terms of fires so if this is climate change then would this be for the good. Funny how climate change is always bad and never a good side to it which just makes it more of a scam. Will post my thoughts on the upcoming weather after this rant.

Lol, Tim, Tim ,Tim, didn’t you get the memo we’re supposed to pretend this has never happened in the history of earth until the life extending fossil fuels were created. Now that we have the smoke monster models , it’s misused by the MSM and others as another prop in the “climate is out to get you” Schtick.