March 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Ironically, this is the 11th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that nailed Piner and Moscow plus others. A few years ago, I started volunteering with the Red Cross and I am now the Disaster Action Team Coordinator for the Cincinnati Tri-State Chapter. We've been busy today making sure that we have folks signed up on-call and are ready to respond if it gets ugly this afternoon.

Very sad day as I have mentioned before a good friend my wife worked with had her boyfriend die in a tornado that day while driving and was talking to her as it happened. So sad and he was a great guy.

[tron777]

Winds are gusting 50-60 MPH once that Western KY line passes. I am seeing those gusts showing up on the KY Mesonet stations down there in West KY. So if your hood dodges severe t-storms, don't worry, the gradient winds behind it are also strong.

[tron777]

WOW! 65 mph gust just recorded 6 miles north of Hopkinsville, KY! Just to prove my point in the above post.

[Trevor]

Updated radar view of the damaging storms sliding up the river from the southwest. Folks…take this one seriously.

[Trevor]

Warm front is approaching our southern counties now.

[cloudy72]

Several of those warnings have "destructive" tags - 80+ mph wind!

[cloudy72]

My stats so far: Current temp of 42, Rainfall = 2.32" and counting, Barometer 29.20" and rapidly falling. Will likely see over 3" of rain in my hood before all is said and done.

[tron777]

CVG is up to 1.59" as of 2pm. Temp and dew both up to 46. Carroll Co mesonet at 48 with ENE winds but Oldham Co now has SE winds and 54 so there's your warm front location.

[tpweather]

Light to moderate rain falling and pressure down to 29.17. Wind at 1 mph.

[Trevor]

New SPC update at the top of the hour btw.

[tron777]

Update from the boys:

Widespread showers continue to push north across the area with
persistent rainfall leading to some minor flooding issues across
western counties.

Strongly forced showers and thunderstorms area approaching from
the southwest in two bands with the second band being the one
of highest concern. This will be in conjunction with a narrow
band of instability that is translating northeast. This
continues to have the potential to be a higher end severe
weather event with the possibility of 70+ mph thunderstorm gusts
as well as tornadoes.

High wind warning was expanded into south central Ohio. This is
for post convective winds heading into the evening. Looks like
there could be a 2-4 hour period of 50+ kt wind gusts as
mixing/steepening lapse rates tap in to the core of an intense
low level jet.

[tron777]

Hey Trev.... is it me or do you notice the radar trends too of that line in Southern IN and Western KY? What I am seeing is the line starting to break up and cells being more super cellular in nature? Some of the cells have a little tail now too which could be the part of the cell that is rotating?

[Trevor]

Hey Trev.... is it me or do you notice the radar trends too of that line in Southern IN and Western KY? What I am seeing is the line starting to break up and cells being more super cellular in nature? Some of the cells have a little tail now too which could be the part of the cell that is rotating?

Indeed. The southern portion of the line is taking on a bit more of a discrete look to it.

I’d imagine the MD and watch process has already begun for our area behind the scenes at SPC.

[tron777]

Thanks Trev! Just wanted to make sure I was posting accurate info. The warning text from that line to our SW indicates that the line is moving NE at 70 to 75 mph! That is very impressive!

[Trevor]

Also been monitoring some super cellular structures to our south as well.

[MVWxObserver]

Per BG - Just to give everyone some sense of timing:

Hi Les,

Yes and in the past half hour some TOR warnings which occurred over or near places like Poseyville, Owensville and Princeton, IN e.g. where I have cousins from Mom's side of the family.

[tron777]

New SREF run has a 45% contour getting into our S counties in NKY for significant tornado ingredients. This is concerning...

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f006.gif

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Dubois County in south central Indiana...
Northwestern Crawford County in south central Indiana...
Northwestern Perry County in south central Indiana...
Southwestern Orange County in south central Indiana...

* Until 245 PM EST/145 PM CST/.

* At 212 PM EST/112 PM CST/, a severe thunderstorm capable of
producing a tornado was located near Dale, moving northeast at 60
mph.

[Trevor]

Continuing to watch these storms take on a more supercellular look to them. Movement is NNE.

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Harrison County in south central Indiana...
Eastern Crawford County in south central Indiana...
East central Perry County in south central Indiana...
Meade County in central Kentucky...
Northeastern Breckinridge County in central Kentucky...

* Until 300 PM EST/200 PM CST/.

* At 220 PM EST/120 PM CST/, severe thunderstorms were located along
a line extending from 11 miles southwest of English to 8 miles east
of Hardinsburg, moving northeast at 80 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

[tron777]

I posted a few of the TOR and SVR warnings that have come out from LOU just so people will know what the potential risks are for us later.

Trev... it's all along and just north of the warm front the first band. Then you get that brief window for the second band which is the cold front itself. Both mean business but I am especially concerned more for that second line as I mentioned earlier.

[Trevor]

Starting to think we won’t really see much of a break in the action as convection continues to strengthen and move in from the south and southwest

[tron777]

WOW! Breckenridge Co, KY mesonet site within the last 5 mins has recorded a gust to 75 MPH!

[cloudy72]

Storms by LOU moving at 80 mph now! Yowza!

[MVWxObserver]

39 in G'ville, 41 DAY and 46 CVG.

ILN progged 44 for G'ville so will see.