Absolute Vorticity

Good Afternoon and models continue to show a nice system late next week. Matter of fact the gfs is slower in getting the system here which is unusual. What I have notice is the ensembles except for the Euro which has not come out yet is showing the low pressures a little further south than the operational. The upper system looks really strong so that is where we should get quite a bit of action and cold air up above. Interesting system to say the least and just wish we had more cold air before hand or even entering the system on the backside. Plenty of time to watch this system but no doubt some rain here Thursday or Friday depending on timing and then can we get some snow after the upper system passes us.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 2:19 pm Good Afternoon and models continue to show a nice system late next week. Matter of fact the gfs is slower in getting the system here which is unusual. What I have notice is the ensembles except for the Euro which has not come out yet is showing the low pressures a little further south than the operational. The upper system looks really strong so that is where we should get quite a bit of action and cold air up above. Interesting system to say the least and just wish we had more cold air before hand or even entering the system on the backside. Plenty of time to watch this system but no doubt some rain here Thursday or Friday depending on timing and then can we get some snow after the upper system passes us.

Agree , it's been the one thing that has hindered this set-up from the get go. Mid Jan and a storm in the OV with little significant snows for anyone other than higher terrain and near the lakes

12Z Euro has a rain maker with a few flakes at the end... maybe.

12Z EPS takes a long time for the EC Low transfer which is a good thing. Low tracks right up thru the OV and up into Erie, PA before slowly doing the transfer. That would give us a shot at some backside snow I would think due to the slower transfer.

The Hype Machine has already started with this system. I see no model showing an outcome like this. Check it out! If this were to pan out, I'll eat my hat!

Some encouraging signs from the EPS for the last 7-10 days of Jan. Hope it continues with a 500mb shuffle

18Z GFS for the end of next week system is mostly rain with a touch of back end snow.

This was posted by Joe Bastardi. It is the latest 5-10 day skill scores for the various weather models. The Euro, UkMet, CMC consistently do better in the medium range.

Good Morning and I see the operational models have moved towards their ensembles and the system later this week is trending southward. Does this mean a better chance for some winter weather and the answer is maybe. Wow way to go out on a limb lol. Do we have enough cold air is key later this week and the high in eastern Canada seems to be trending further northeast which does not help out but the high coming in behind the system looks somewhat stronger and should have a push of cold air sometime Friday. Seems like your normal rain to light snow on the back end systems that we see around here quite often. Again just need to see by Tuesday how this pans out and though all 3 major models have shown the east coast storm for sometime they are starting to make small changes here and there which you would expect. So in a nutshell rain on Thursday and should be a nice soaking probably in that .5-1 inch range and then the front comes through Friday and cold air heads in and we should see some light snow or snow showers Friday and Saturday. No sense making any snowfall prediction this far out and hopefully by Tuesday as the storm is looked at by models more we can get a better handle on this.

Looking to the future and everything is looking great for the return of winter though about a week later than I thought would happen. More details on how the change happens later this week as we usually get a big storm to usher in a new pattern but also you tend to warm up one more time in the 16-20th period so the January Thaw will continue but the wait will make it that much nicer when the cold and snow returns.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:38 am7-day_tanom.png

The same old song and dance each month. Do we end up with 10 days way below normal so at the end just a normal month. Last year was a great example of as we were about as close to normal on temps and precip that you could ever get. Mother Nature just trying to balance things out and lately she is working overtime

The mjo is probably in phase 7 but near the COD. Remember in later December we made it into phase 8 and then a straight to phase 3 and 4 in just a few days and we have been mild since then. The good thing is we are heading through the phases and not stopping for a long period of time in any phase. Will we stay in the COD or head back towards phase 8 and 1 or do we sort of head back to phase 6 or 7 and then make the trip into the colder phases. Projections of the COD are sometimes perfect and other times just like anything involving forecasts they are horrible.

Good morning all! I'm starting to like the trends track wise for the Thurs / Fri system. Hope to see that trend continue. It's a shame we have no cold air really to work with so the way it has to go down is to get the surface low to pass SE of us, like the Apps then have the system deepen at the right time for the upper low to deliver back end snows for us. That's truly the only way it's going to work for snow lovers with regards to this system. The Ensemble low tracks aren't bad this far out. Watch we get an Apps Runner with no cold air to work with! All joking aside.. definitely agree with the idea of rain Thurs then when do we change to snow and how much moisture do we have left are all questions to be answered as time goes on.

For the longer term period... still like the idea of after the 20th for a better looking pattern. The last week of January and into Feb looks good to me right now on paper. We'll just have to wait and see if any blocking returns or is the Pacific Jet still in the drivers seat? Again, we will be answering that question too as time goes on.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:55 am The mjo is probably in phase 7 but near the COD. Remember in later December we made it into phase 8 and then a straight to phase 3 and 4 in just a few days and we have been mild since then. The good thing is we are heading through the phases and not stopping for a long period of time in any phase. Will we stay in the COD or head back towards phase 8 and 1 or do we sort of head back to phase 6 or 7 and then make the trip into the colder phases. Projections of the COD are sometimes perfect and other times just like anything involving forecasts they are horrible.

Don'tcha just love the MJO? Look at current satellite and precip and you could make a case for it to be in several phases atm. It's a cluster of a mess to be precise with the current graphics the meteorological world has excepted for the time being . Such tiny maps to represent the whole equatorial sphere.. .. Saying that, my thoughts from yesterday are still the same , after some form of a dieing 8 phase, a re-emergence seems likely in the Indian ocean, for the reason, that's where anomalis westerlies pick back up, so once the MJO reflection reaches those more favorable conditions it becomes active there. Where it goes from there ,how fast , who knows, but like I mentioned yesterday that brush with 8 should help with an adjustment in the 500mb pattern in the coming week or two

man lots of people on the social medias are posting pics of flowers budding and stuff , many have thrown their towels in already .

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:44 am man lots of people on the social medias are posting pics of flowers budding and stuff , many have thrown their towels in already .

We just had a heck of a frost yesterday morning here. No flowers coming up IMBY anytime soon.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:44 am man lots of people on the social medias are posting pics of flowers budding and stuff , many have thrown their towels in already .

Daffodils are poking through here and grass is greening up. Thinking about getting the mowing equipment out and start cutting again. lol In all seriousness there is a little bit of growth in my bacyard grass. I even cut it low back at the end of November.

12Z GFS for later next week is a little stronger / NW with the low track. Still see some snow shower activity on the backside. Then you have the 12Z Canadian which is way weaker / SE with the low track taking it well SE of us but it's all rain due to no cold air to work with and no back side snows since the low is so weak. Very progressive flow.

12Z GEFS follows the 12Z OP GFS run.

I believe as time goes by it really is how strong the upper system is to produce some snow and of course how quickly the cold air comes in behind the front. Its cold but the will it be quick in quick out as ridging will quickly form in the central and southern plains as more energy moves into the west coast. Further out my guess and only a guess we will have a big system sometime in that 16-20 range which will be a cutter and head well into northeast Canada. Then we are able to start seeing the cold that will be building up in western Canada later this week have a pathway to the USA. Timing is still up in the air sort of speak but hopefully its not delayed any longer because if so that is when you always get a pattern stuck in gear and if your on the wrong side winter weather is hard to come by. Btw frost yesterday was quite impressive and just having moisture in the ground makes a difference.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:54 am I believe as time goes by it really is how strong the upper system is to produce some snow and of course how quickly the cold air comes in behind the front. Its cold but the will be quick in quick out as ridging will quickly form in the central and southern plains as more energy moves into the west coast. Further out my guess and only a guess we will have a big system sometime in that 16-20 range which will be a cutter and head well into northeast Canada. Then we are able to start seeing the cold that will be building up in western Canada later this week have a pathway to the USA. Timing is still up in the air sort of speak but hopefully its not delayed any longer because if so that is when you always get a pattern stuck in gear and if your on the wrong side winter weather is hard to come by. Btw frost yesterday was quite impressive and just having moisture in the ground makes a difference.

It's going to be pretty amazing if we see any snow accumulation from the late week system. It's such a fine line we walk in this horrible pattern. Too weak then you get less precip and no cold air to speak of. A stronger system will help with the cold air but if it's too strong, it cuts and you get rain anyway. So you want it weak coming in and then blow it up at the right time. So difficult to do. Not impossible, but difficult in this pattern.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 12:01 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:54 am I believe as time goes by it really is how strong the upper system is to produce some snow and of course how quickly the cold air comes in behind the front. Its cold but the will be quick in quick out as ridging will quickly form in the central and southern plains as more energy moves into the west coast. Further out my guess and only a guess we will have a big system sometime in that 16-20 range which will be a cutter and head well into northeast Canada. Then we are able to start seeing the cold that will be building up in western Canada later this week have a pathway to the USA. Timing is still up in the air sort of speak but hopefully its not delayed any longer because if so that is when you always get a pattern stuck in gear and if your on the wrong side winter weather is hard to come by. Btw frost yesterday was quite impressive and just having moisture in the ground makes a difference.

It's going to be pretty amazing if we see any snow accumulation from the late week system. It's such a fine line we walk in this horrible pattern. Too weak then you get less precip and no cold air to speak of. A stronger system will help with the cold air but if it's too strong, it cuts and you get rain anyway. So you want it weak coming in and then blow it up at the right time. So difficult to do. Not impossible, but difficult in this pattern.

Les even more of a timing issue than normal like you explained. Of course these are the kind you see a few surprises but will it be here is the question and the answer is I don't know that is why it would a surprise.

12Z UKMET is a more interesting solution. Low track is AR to Memphis thru South Central KY to WV then to PA, NY and into the Northern New England Mountains. No EC transfer. The surface low deepens as it moves thru the OV and continues as such into New England. The only odd thing to me about this run is that there isn't much precip NW of the low which doesn't really make sense to me but whatever.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 12:10 pm Les even more of a timing issue than normal like you explained. Of course these are the kind you see a few surprises but will it be here is the question and the answer is I don't know that is why it would a surprise.

We'll see Tim.... it's the weather after all and as much as we try and stay ahead of the game, every once and a while good things can and do happen even in a junk pattern. After the storm leaves, we will warm up again as you mentioned then we'll see how after the 20th shakes out down the road.

12Z Euro is rain with a touch of back end snow. Track isn't the best on this run, but no EC Transfer like the UKMET.