Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:56 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:53 pm Rainfall wise for Wed... the Euro only has around 3/4" at CVG which is below my forecasted range. Not changing my rainfall amounts call unless we see the QPF reduced from other guidance over the weekend.

Les I went lower and again my reasoning is the storms in the south could end up robbing us of some moisture on Wednesday so I went with the .5-1.0. Again I could change next week but at the moment that is how I see this playing out.

If the severe storms really go to town on Wed, there is no doubt i'll be wrong and a 1/2" is a great call with this system. Should the severe wx not be as bad then 1" plus will work. At this time, you could make a really good case for either scenario. Really, it could come down to a nowcast to be honest unless we see the data trend hard (to lower or higher amounts).

Also think Dce is correct , even if there is no NEaster, we won't need it for the cold to sweep in , it will be here either way, cold enough as we say.

12Z EPS has the Nor 'Easter... here is the SLP Cluster and intensities from all members valid next Friday afternoon:

Merry Christmas from the EPS! Check out the hemispheric view for the week leading up to Christmas!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:00 pm Merry Christmas from the EPS! Check out the hemispheric view for the week leading up to Christmas!


EPS.png

HO-HO-HO-My. Block to keep warm pac air from entering and a block to keep the cold air from leaving . That's no white elephant gift

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:00 pm Merry Christmas from the EPS! Check out the hemispheric view for the week leading up to Christmas!


EPS.png

HO-HO-HO-My. Block to keep warm pac air from entering and a block to keep the cold air from leaving . That's no white elephant gift

Yep! Split flow with lots of short waves too! We know the storm train is lined up over the Pacific like a train. Busy, busy, busy...

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satel ... ared/nopac

The ever important 850 temps (anomalies) from the EPS. Load and re-load

Man that looks great! Just need a little luck and we're in! If we can keep these looks on the guidance for like 1 more week, it should become a reality at that point. I mean this is no longer in the fantasy range at all. We're getting closer, you can almost smell and taste the cold air and snow.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:54 am Wow, HIP-HIP HOORAY, For he's a jolly good felloooooooo..... HB Trev!! A gift is on its way, one size fits all.


Screenshot_20221209-084817_Google.jpg

Oh boy do I need that in my life! I’d wear it proudly

Thank you all for the wonderful birthday wishes. I started this website back in 2008 as a young Sycamore High School weather nerd, and it’s still going strong now.

Lots of time has gone by but I just wanted to say that I proudly fund this amazing community, and here’s to many more years together. Much love and thanks to those who help run the show. I couldn’t do it without you.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:14 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:00 pm Merry Christmas from the EPS! Check out the hemispheric view for the week leading up to Christmas!


EPS.png

HO-HO-HO-My. Block to keep warm pac air from entering and a block to keep the cold air from leaving . That's no white elephant gift

Yep! Split flow with lots of short waves too! We know the storm train is lined up over the Pacific like a train. Busy, busy, busy...

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satel ... ared/nopac

Thanks Les. Seeing the storms lined up in the Pacific always reminds me of Rich A. He liked to show that a lot.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 6:17 pm Thank you all for the wonderful birthday wishes. I started this website back in 2008 as a young Sycamore High School weather nerd, and it’s still going strong now.

Lots of time has gone by but I just wanted to say that I proudly fund this amazing community, and here’s to many more years together. Much love and thanks to those who help run the show. I couldn’t do it without you.

Hope you can find more time to post Trev. Miss you around here!

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:07 pm
Thanks Les. Seeing the storms lined up in the Pacific always reminds me of Rich A. He liked to show that a lot.

Hey Bo! I should look at the Pacific satellite myself a lot more then I do. 95% of the time our weather comes from the West, as you know, so why not take a peak and see what's going on.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 5:40 pm Screenshot_20221209-174004_Chrome.jpg

That is very interesting

Good Evening and love the maps above. This is the kind of pattern the can be around for a longer period and much of that will come down to a decent snow pack in the northern half of the USA. I went rather heavy in the snowfall contest so I need a pattern like this to deliver 20 plus inches over a 3-4 week period.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 5:40 pm Screenshot_20221209-174004_Chrome.jpg

That is very interesting

It is interesting and seems to match up with past analogs rather well. Mother Nature's going to do what she's going to do but looking at past set up's, we certainly have the opportunity to score.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:41 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 5:40 pm Screenshot_20221209-174004_Chrome.jpg

That is very interesting

It is interesting and seems to match up with past analogs rather well. Mother Nature's going to do what she's going to do but looking at past set up's, we certainly have the opportunity to score.

Les we have been waiting for that mid-Dec - mid Jan pattern where we have the cold locked in and hopefully plenty of storms to help out.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:41 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 5:40 pm Screenshot_20221209-174004_Chrome.jpg

That is very interesting

It is interesting and seems to match up with past analogs rather well. Mother Nature's going to do what she's going to do but looking at past set up's, we certainly have the opportunity to score.

Les we have been waiting for that mid-Dec - mid Jan pattern where we have the cold locked in and hopefully plenty of storms to help out.

That's been the idea for a while Tim. Get a decent pattern for 3-4 weeks as you mentioned, then get a January Thaw then hopefully one more nice period before Spring arrives. For December, this is the best potential that I have seen on paper since 2010. It really is. Now will it pan out and produce? We will know soon! Another week of London type weather to go then maybe it'll be our turn!

Les already seeing winter storm watches for the western high plains an the watch is for late Monday through late Wednesday. 72 hours before is something you don't that often so no doubt they feel really good about the big system for early next week

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:01 pm Les already seeing winter storm watches for the western high plains an the watch is for late Monday through late Wednesday. 72 hours before is something you don't that often so no doubt they feel really good about the big system for early next week

A multi day event too since the low will occlude. I could see 1-2 feet falling across portions of the Dakotas. Lay that snowpack down for us! That is something we just haven't had in a long time around here Tim. A long duration event. Many many times these systems are in and out. A 4-6 hour period of snow or maybe a 12 hour period if it's a bigger system. Whatever happened to a 24 to 36 hour snowfall? Sure these are very rare for us but with the blocking pattern that is coming, December 2022 is as good a time as any. Another pattern we have not seen a lot of in recent years are clippers! We used to get a lot of clippers and some would be "hybrid" systems that originate from the Pacific instead of Alberta Canada which is more classic. Feb 2010 was full of those hybrid clippers as one example of such a pattern. I would really like to see something out of the ordinary is kind of what I am getting at here. If the blocking is realized and the PNA cooperates as well as timing.... after all timing is everything in terms of systems phasing or not phasing. You can tell I am itching for snow by this post! It's always been my drug of choice.

Les you hit the nail on the head and that is longer lasting systems and to get that you either need an upper low that gets caught under the jet stream but the amount of real estate is slim or you get the blocking pattern the models are showing us in the next several weeks. I would love to get a system where we had some kind of snowfall for 24 straight hours.

Les I know you follow other forums and how is the talk going concerning the upcoming several weeks?

The CPC had a wonderful write up this afternoon discussing their thinking on the pattern for Weeks 3 and 4 (12/14 thru 1/6/23) This is a great read and they talk about many of the things we've been tracking on our forum too over the last few weeks. They discuss the teleconnections and the MJO (just like we do) Hopefully everyone who reads this post clicks on the link below and takes the time to read this and digest it. It's a really nice write up!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ions/WK34/

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:21 pm Les I know you follow other forums and how is the talk going concerning the upcoming several weeks?

The talk has been very positive. A lot of excitement out there for sure! Most believe that the GFS is full of bull but you cannot completely rule out it's solution. CMC, Euro for the Operational models and the Ensembles like the GEFS and EPS are receiving the most talk. This is undoubtedly because of their consistently. We have also commented similarly on our forum about that. The usual rules apply. Beyond Day 7 lean towards the Ensembles more then once inside of Day 7 the Operational models are more useful. Probably best to toss the GFS until we get to Day 5.