November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

The most important part of your post is what region is the tropical forcing going to be most concentrated in. We have seen where it has set up in phases 4-6 and though cold air was in Canada and the western USA we could not get the cold to make much inroads.

That's correct Tim... where the most dominant region of the tropical forcing occurs is important. If the MJO keeps going thru Phases 4-6 all the time, then you get a repeat of last December. Very mild. But if we can stay more often towards Phases 7 and esp 8, 1, etc etc, then we should see continued arctic cold air attacks. That's kind of my current thinking right now.

Exactly Les and when you go into the COD whatever phase you left will be the weather for several days until the mjo has sorted itself out and see where its moving next. Sometimes the models are wonderful at figuring out the next phase but other times they can figure out the phase but the duration in a certain phase can be tricky

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

Pretty much what we thought so far, Made it to #3 warmest first 10 days of Nov.

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Hey Bgoney, where did you this info. Love to see what the middle 10 days of November will turn out in terms of cold weather. Saying that does this give us any clues of the upcoming weather where we go back and forth between really warm and really cold. Not sure about that but will watch the trends as always.

Tim, how's it going . Here you go , there is alot of stuff to click on , so I had to play around awhile to get what I wanted

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

[Bgoney]

Tim , I was kind of thinking the same way about mid Nov yesterday. This is what I came up with , I started from Saturday, our first cold day and went all the way to the end of the month . Some doozie winters followed

Screenshot_20221113-083248_Chrome.jpg

[Bgoney]

Tim , I was kind of thinking the same way about mid Nov yesterday. This is what I came up with , I started from Saturday, our first cold day and went all the way to the end of the month . Some doozie winters followed



Screenshot_20221113-083248_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

After looking at the 12Z NAM and GFS, no changes from me for tonight and tomorrow. Still thinking precip moves in tomorrow morning. Going with a start time of 6-9am (using CVG / Cincy as a reference point) Thinking mainly snow NW 1/2 of the area and rain the SE 1/2. We as usual are right on the boarder here in the Cincy Metro so we'll see how it goes. Will say snow to rain for us in the transition zone. 1" or less on grassy areas where it remains all snow to nothing SE zones should be the snowfall accum distribution with this one.

Then I like the idea of flurries and snow showers being possible to produde a covering in some locations Wed / Thurs timeframe. So all in all, as Tim mentioned (and I agree with) everyone has a shot at 1" of snow this week.

[tron777]

Tim , I was kind of thinking the same way about mid Nov yesterday. This is what I came up with , I started from Saturday, our first cold day and went all the way to the end of the month

Oh my!!! Wouldn't that be awesome if things progressed how some of those past years went? Wow!

[tpweather]

Tim , I was kind of thinking the same way about mid Nov yesterday. This is what I came up with , I started from Saturday, our first cold day and went all the way to the end of the month . Some doozie winters followed



Screenshot_20221113-083248_Chrome.jpg

Thanks Bgoney, I did go into the site and yes it takes awhile to figure what you need but I got the same data as you. Will be interesting to see the outcome and I believe the Friday and Saturday morning lows will either make or break getting into the top 5

[MVWxObserver]

wow hate seeing that much snow fall in November . hopefully this is just a fluke and we get back to normal fall conditions

Going to be a long winter, bro. Ma Nature is on fast forward mode this year.

Currently 36 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

42 at CVG currently, and we'll end up about 10 degrees below avg today for highs. Euro shows the issue with our next system nicely since the apparent low to our west will weaken and split into two pieces of energy. We are in the middle of the two goal posts so guess what we get? Light rain / snow. Rain to our south and that 1" or less of snow I talked about NW of us. Heavier amounts in the advisory criteria again as Tim mentioned well off to our West before the system gets too weak.

[tpweather]

42 at CVG currently, and we'll end up about 10 degrees below avg today for highs. Euro shows the issue with our next system nicely since the apparent low to our west will weaken and split into two pieces of energy. We are in the middle of the two goal posts so guess what we get? Light rain / snow. Rain to our south and that 1" or less of snow I talked about NW of us. Heavier amounts in the advisory criteria again as Tim mentioned well off to our West before the system gets too weak.

I agree Les and the gfs was the best this weekend but and we will see if the Euro gets the win on this one. Brian had mentioned the the shorter term models did horrible this past weekend and the gfs hits the first bout of winter weather.

[tron777]

The latest thinking for tomorrow AM from the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
More widespread pcpn will overspread our area through the
morning hours on Tuesday as the mid level short wave continues
to lift northeast across the region. Expect the highest pops
Tuesday morning across our southeast along the leading edge of
a 20-30 knot low level jet. Thus will run pops from categorical
in the southeast to likely/chance across our northwest. Thermal
fields will be a little tricky at the onset of pcpn with
surface temps near freezing and some low level warming
developing off the surface. While most of the pcpn should
start off as snow, there could be some rain and/or mixed pcpn
also mixing in for a brief period early. As we continue to warm
through the morning/early afternoon though, expect to see a
transition to rain/snow and then rain across much of the area.
Expect any snow accumulations to be less than a half inch, with
the best chance of this across northwest portions of our area
where it should be a little cooler. The METRo road models are
showing some road temps near or perhaps just below freezing
early Tuesday morning so a few slick spots may be possible
early on.

[tron777]

Good evening... Radar shows an area of rain and snow extending from Central MO, almost ready to scrape S Iowa... back to the west across Kansas and Oklahoma southward into Arkansas. This shield of precip is moving NE in our direction and should arrive within the next 12 hours give or take. Currently, we are cold enough aloft for snow from about the Metro on north. Mixed precip in the south. We should continue to cool slowly with easterly flow ahead of the low / war, front with this system. Weakening low should approach tomorrow afternoon changing the snow to rain from SW to NE as the day progresses. Everyone should start as snow at the onset but the south will changeover pretty quickly to rain. We may see an hour or two of snow in the Metro before we changeover as well. Still expecting all snow NW of the Metro / Cincy since they will be NW of the weakening low track. I don't have any changes after reviewing further data. 1" or less north / western zones. Snow to rain for us down here in the Cincy Metro with an isolated slick spot possible. Might get a covering out of it before it changes. Then no accum for the south and SE zones. That is pretty much what I am expecting. For CVG, QPF wise models are generally showing 0.10 to 0.20" range. I would go towards the 0.10-0.15" range personally due to the weakening nature of the low.

Wed night / early Thurs may have the best chance for an inch or less area wide. These will be more random and scattered in nature but no precip type issues to deal with. Then we turn cold and warm up toe3ards Thanksgiving and get wet. Question is... do we stay mild for a while and flip back to end to end Nov? OP Models keep changing from one thing to the other so a big question mark in my mind right now what happens after Thanksgiving.

[tron777]

Some nice graphics from BadNewsBrad over at Local 12:

Local12Brad1.jpg

Local12Brad2.jpg

[tron777]

ROAD TRIP!!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park,
and Springville
219 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
in a long duration event of 1 to 2 feet or more are possible in
the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...The potential remains for a significant long duration
lake effect snow event Thursday night through much of the
weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact band
placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are
possible, including across the Buffalo metro area.

[young pup]

ROAD TRIP!!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park,
and Springville
219 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
in a long duration event of 1 to 2 feet or more are possible in
the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...The potential remains for a significant long duration
lake effect snow event Thursday night through much of the
weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact band
placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are
possible, including across the Buffalo metro area.

Would be interesting to do a road trip. Take shovels and sleeping bags just in case.

[tron777]

May need to take more then shovels, JP! Alright... so good morning all! A touch of snow imby this morning before it melted. It was just a dusting on car and roof tops. So a Trace for my hood with this system. Some light rain as well. Pretty much the way I thought it would go. Better snows to our north for sure. How is our I-70 Crew doing this morning? Report in up north posters!

[snowbo]

Radar says snow, observation says no. Still working on moistening up the column.

[tron777]

Radar says snow, observation says no. Still working on moistening up the column.

Took us 1-2 hours to do that down here.

[Bgoney]

Nothing at home, a few flurries in Indian hill

[tpweather]

Good Morning and just a very light dusting early this morning. Next round is moving in but should be rain for most folks. Still expecting snow showers Wednesday and Thursday and again not everyone may see one but if you get under one a quick 1/3 to 1/2 inch is possible. Then the cold air moves in until we start to warm up next week. I thought a storm would form early next week but models are pushing this off until Wednesday or Thanksgiving. This should be rain for us as milder air moves in and once the storm passes we can always get the leftover snow flurries but I see nothing that causes any problems.

A brief cool down after the storm but I believe we are heading for an extended milder stretch though models are not sure. Two reasons and one is the mjo which looks to be headed towards phase 4 or 5 which is a milder phase in late November. Second reason is around the polar regions and expecting a positive AO to form as that area gets really cold like you would expect in late November. How long before we turn cold again will be determined by how strong the PV gets and if it can get disrupted.

I know Les showed the jma yesterday and for the month of December it shows a trough in the eastern part of the USA. Do I believe that and the answer is yes but not early on in December. My guess the model is just giving us a snapshot of the most likely outcome for December but that does not mean we won't have ridging at times and some milder spells.

[young pup]

Nothing in Columbus yet even though radar has snow around.

[tron777]

Models did a good job with this system showing it weakening as it headed into our area with a gap between the two lows. Best snows and your big winners are going to be right where Tim said yesterday... ILL probably into Western IN. Can't rule out a little snow love for IND as well but just scrapes for us as we talked about. So we can pretty much move along and for the rest of this week, still expecting well below avg temps and a few snow showers from time to time esp tomorrow night into early Thurs. Some will get nothing, others up to 1".

Still looking to warm up next week and get wet around Wed or Thanksgiving Day itself. Still working on timing and storm evolution. GFS continues to show us getting cooler immediately behind this system. Maybe not as cold as this week but def below normal for sure in regards to temps and a few weak systems sliding in that can produce rain and / or snow. So we'll see here. Not quite in the Euro range yet going that far out past T-giving. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro agrees over the next week.

MJO as of 11/13 is moving in the neutral circle to potentially re-emerge in phase 5 or 6 in about 4 or 5 days from now. Just estimating on the timing there. We will of course need to keep checking every few days which I usually do. All weekly models (CMC, EPS, Euro etc etc) continue to show a nice blocking pattern for cold and snow in December for the Eastern third of the CONUS. I have been seeing DT really woofing it up on his Facebook page talking about it. So we'll see if it's actually true or do we get our normal warm December that we've become accustomed to seeing? Anything will beat last year, we know that.

[Bgoney]

You guys pretty much summed it up for the rest of Nov. With the MJO headed to 5-6 a shake up in the 500mb is inevitable. During the last week of the month we will probably see the trough back on the west coast and some ridging in the east, duration ? Unknown. Not only how far the MJO travels eastward into the Pac, bit how quickly. We know the models like to propagate it more quickly than it actually does. There is still that brick wall of cooler water temps and above normal easterlies it will contend with in the Pac. Tim , I like your term of "snapshot" for Dec. Take this month for example, record warm first 11 days and substantial cold for 2 weeks , so the monthly forecast can be at first glance , be misleading

[tpweather]

Looking at the globe and the coldest area at the moment is in eastern Siberia and found -45 while the coldest in Canada is -25. So yes this is changing which is not uncommon to have the coldest air on that side of the globe. I saw they were predicting temps in the -60 - -75 over the next 10 days in that area but have backed off to -50 - -55. I have no problem with the build up of cold and this will help develop the positive AO. Hopefully in December we have those disruptions of the PV and then we see where the chips may land in regards to where the cold air wants to go. Sometimes it splits into 3 areas of cold and many folks in the lower latitudes get cold but not to harsh. If it splits two way then colder air can seep southward but of course at this time no way of knowing as the PV is just starting to get strong. Third is the PV heads towards southeast Canada and this is the one that can bring down the coldest of air. Usually it takes time for the PV to get disrupted but first we need to see how strong it gets and go from there.

So we need the positive AO to build up the cold weather but then we just need the correct set up to bring the cold down this way.

BTW great post Bgoney and agree with every comment you threw out.