Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:51 pm EU looks like a good threat for severe next week for south central states and Tenn. valley

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:59 pm Around 1.5" of rain for us as well. Should thaw out whatever is left by then and give the roads a good rinse job.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:59 pm Around 1.5" of rain for us as well. Should thaw out whatever is left by then and give the roads a good rinse job.

Good Afternoon and the Feb sun as helped in the temp department. So next week an interesting storm and the difference is the GFS keeps the system further north because there is not a very strong high pressure to the north. Both the Euro and CMC is further south and yes plenty of rain but a better chance of some snow on the back side and of course colder next weekend. Lets see who blinks first with the new details today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:57 pm Nothing much else going on after the model finished running. A warm one tomorrow, 50s but rain likely in the afternoon and evening. With the models still going light with totals, generally 0.25" or less, that should be good. Then we're cold Sat - Mon. Some flurries possible Sat morning. Jury is still out on any flurries for Sun night / V-day Morning. Then we warm up and get wet Thurs and Fri it appears. For us snow lovers, our plans are not going as planned here but I do see a cold shot behind that system. Short lived but we'll see if we can get anything there, before we warm back up again probably after Pres Day.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:00 am Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:00 am Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:21 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:00 am Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

Just to add a little more info and models are trending this system stronger heading this way. At the moment I still believe the severe weather will be to the south of us but if this storm somehow gets stronger then maybe the severe weather makes it further north. The problem is this system is loaded with moisture once again and yes stronger than last weeks storm but this one is moving rather quickly. Long term still very typical mid-late Feb with some warm days and some cold but see nothing that last more than a few days either way.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:25 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:21 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:00 am Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

Just to add a little more info and models are trending this system stronger heading this way. At the moment I still believe the severe weather will be to the south of us but if this storm somehow gets stronger then maybe the severe weather makes it further north. The problem is this system is loaded with moisture once again and yes stronger than last weeks storm but this one is moving rather quickly. Long term still very typical mid-late Feb with some warm days and some cold but see nothing that last more than a few days either way.

Yeah, it looks like more of a heavy rain event to me also with some rumbles of thunder, lightning, some wind possible. The SPC current outlook is fine this far away anyway. Model runs are def going to change for several more days. As of 2/9, MJO still stalled in weak phase 2 per the Aussies. It is in no hurry to move anywhere attm. So I continue to like the roller coaster temp call, which means active weather. Just hope we can squeak out a little more snow before our chances totally go bye bye.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:25 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:21 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:00 am Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

Just to add a little more info and models are trending this system stronger heading this way. At the moment I still believe the severe weather will be to the south of us but if this storm somehow gets stronger then maybe the severe weather makes it further north. The problem is this system is loaded with moisture once again and yes stronger than last weeks storm but this one is moving rather quickly. Long term still very typical mid-late Feb with some warm days and some cold but see nothing that last more than a few days either way.

Yeah, it looks like more of a heavy rain event to me also with some rumbles of thunder, lightning, some wind possible. The SPC current outlook is fine this far away anyway. Model runs are def going to change for several more days. As of 2/9, MJO still stalled in weak phase 2 per the Aussies. It is in no hurry to move anywhere attm. So I continue to like the roller coaster temp call, which means active weather. Just hope we can squeak out a little more snow before our chances totally go bye bye.

I agree Les and concerning the mjo and the trend this season has for it to be slow moving no matter what phase it is located in. That is why my forecast has no long term warmth but I agree with you that the weather will be active. Maybe this year when the pattern changes towards spring we get that huge mid-March storm that can produce snow here. Still plenty of cold to work with in Canada and no big warm for them either in the long term.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:38 am A nice light snow falling during the game would be great. Neighbors start the party at 4pm so by 630 when the game starts I should have finished my first beer lol. My problem with the Bengals in big games and this goes back over 40 years is I drink tons of beer when I am nervous and really never stop during the game. Lucky my wife will be there and hand me a water or two over those 6-7 hours.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:44 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:38 am A nice light snow falling during the game would be great. Neighbors start the party at 4pm so by 630 when the game starts I should have finished my first beer lol. My problem with the Bengals in big games and this goes back over 40 years is I drink tons of beer when I am nervous and really never stop during the game. Lucky my wife will be there and hand me a water or two over those 6-7 hours.

Might be a good time to whip out the cards during the half time show. I see easy money!