February 2022 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Turned into an overcast dreary looking day here - temp sitting at 37. High was 39 earlier.

[tron777]

43 and partly cloudy here, a nice afternoon!

[tron777]

Flurries SB Sunday evening on the 12z Euro with a weak s/w shearing out as it moves in instead of V-day morning.

[Bgoney]

EU looks like a good threat for severe next week for south central states and Tenn. valley

[cloudy72]

EU looks like a good threat for severe next week for south central states and Tenn. valley

Agreed - CIPS is also trying to pick up on something next Thursday.

Day 8 SVR.png

[tron777]

Around 1.5" of rain for us as well. Should thaw out whatever is left by then and give the roads a good rinse job.

[tpweather]

Around 1.5" of rain for us as well. Should thaw out whatever is left by then and give the roads a good rinse job.

Good Afternoon and the Feb sun as helped in the temp department. So next week an interesting storm and the difference is the GFS keeps the system further north because there is not a very strong high pressure to the north. Both the Euro and CMC is further south and yes plenty of rain but a better chance of some snow on the back side and of course colder next weekend. Lets see who blinks first with the new details today.

[tron777]

Around 1.5" of rain for us as well. Should thaw out whatever is left by then and give the roads a good rinse job.

Good Afternoon and the Feb sun as helped in the temp department. So next week an interesting storm and the difference is the GFS keeps the system further north because there is not a very strong high pressure to the north. Both the Euro and CMC is further south and yes plenty of rain but a better chance of some snow on the back side and of course colder next weekend. Lets see who blinks first with the new details today.

That's a decent shot of cold air behind that system. I'd love to get a little clipper or something before Morch takes over.

[Trevor]

@Les the 12z GFS does illustrate the up and down pattern pretty well that you are talking about. I don’t disagree with it, but I do see us breaking into more of a warmer regime by month’s end and into March. We shall see! Either way, the pattern certainly looks to get busy again which will give us plenty to talk about.

Edit: I know I’m not the only one who loves watching a loop like that. Fascinating stuff!

[tron777]

That is exactly how I see the pattern based on the above image.

[Bgoney]

Nothing new from 18z GFS until it froze up . Showing 1-2" qpf for late next week , with the few days warm, few days cold theme at least to the 21st

[tron777]

Nothing much else going on after the model finished running. A warm one tomorrow, 50s but rain likely in the afternoon and evening. With the models still going light with totals, generally 0.25" or less, that should be good. Then we're cold Sat - Mon. Some flurries possible Sat morning. Jury is still out on any flurries for Sun night / V-day Morning. Then we warm up and get wet Thurs and Fri it appears. For us snow lovers, our plans are not going as planned here but I do see a cold shot behind that system. Short lived but we'll see if we can get anything there, before we warm back up again probably after Pres Day.

[tpweather]

Nothing much else going on after the model finished running. A warm one tomorrow, 50s but rain likely in the afternoon and evening. With the models still going light with totals, generally 0.25" or less, that should be good. Then we're cold Sat - Mon. Some flurries possible Sat morning. Jury is still out on any flurries for Sun night / V-day Morning. Then we warm up and get wet Thurs and Fri it appears. For us snow lovers, our plans are not going as planned here but I do see a cold shot behind that system. Short lived but we'll see if we can get anything there, before we warm back up again probably after Pres Day.

Great post Les and very typical for the second half of February. No long term cold or warmth. Next weeks system will be fun to watch and tons of moisture available and its just how quickly the storm passes by that saves us from getting anything out of hand. With no blocking the system is available to move sw to ne in a quick matter. Yes there looks to be secondary low but near the gulf states and that should keep precip to the southeast next weekend as we get another cold shot in here.

[tron777]

Good Friday morning all! Rain coming in this afternoon with the 50s. Snow flurries to end the event later on tonight / early Sat morning. No issues expected. Then for Sunday, snow showers are now increasingly possible late afternoon and evening with another clipper. Most models the other day either missed us with this, or weakened it as it moved in. Overnight guidance is "a little" better with this feature. We'll watch it!

Cold Monday then we warm and watch for rain and t-storms Thurs / Fri next week.

[tron777]

A week after Sleet Fest 2022, and I am finally going to get garbage pick up today! YAY!

EDIT: So I have 2 weeks worth of trash waiting for them.

[tron777]

So for Thursday... the 2 low idea now looks to be dead and we get one strong cold front with wind, rain and some t-storms too. It looks to be in here and out on Thurs / Thurs night, with a lingering flake or two early Fri and that's about it. Severe wx concerns are low, but need to keep one eye open, that kind of deal. SPC already has a 15% Day 7 risk area out to our SW. You are likely seeing that hyped up on social media already, but we'll take it slow and easy here as we always do.

day7prob.gif

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

It's much further delayed with the front stalling along the Gulf Coast. The 2 low idea is dead for us is probably a better statement.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

Just to add a little more info and models are trending this system stronger heading this way. At the moment I still believe the severe weather will be to the south of us but if this storm somehow gets stronger then maybe the severe weather makes it further north. The problem is this system is loaded with moisture once again and yes stronger than last weeks storm but this one is moving rather quickly. Long term still very typical mid-late Feb with some warm days and some cold but see nothing that last more than a few days either way.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

Just to add a little more info and models are trending this system stronger heading this way. At the moment I still believe the severe weather will be to the south of us but if this storm somehow gets stronger then maybe the severe weather makes it further north. The problem is this system is loaded with moisture once again and yes stronger than last weeks storm but this one is moving rather quickly. Long term still very typical mid-late Feb with some warm days and some cold but see nothing that last more than a few days either way.

Yeah, it looks like more of a heavy rain event to me also with some rumbles of thunder, lightning, some wind possible. The SPC current outlook is fine this far away anyway. Model runs are def going to change for several more days. As of 2/9, MJO still stalled in weak phase 2 per the Aussies. It is in no hurry to move anywhere attm. So I continue to like the roller coaster temp call, which means active weather. Just hope we can squeak out a little more snow before our chances totally go bye bye.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

Just to add a little more info and models are trending this system stronger heading this way. At the moment I still believe the severe weather will be to the south of us but if this storm somehow gets stronger then maybe the severe weather makes it further north. The problem is this system is loaded with moisture once again and yes stronger than last weeks storm but this one is moving rather quickly. Long term still very typical mid-late Feb with some warm days and some cold but see nothing that last more than a few days either way.

Yeah, it looks like more of a heavy rain event to me also with some rumbles of thunder, lightning, some wind possible. The SPC current outlook is fine this far away anyway. Model runs are def going to change for several more days. As of 2/9, MJO still stalled in weak phase 2 per the Aussies. It is in no hurry to move anywhere attm. So I continue to like the roller coaster temp call, which means active weather. Just hope we can squeak out a little more snow before our chances totally go bye bye.

I agree Les and concerning the mjo and the trend this season has for it to be slow moving no matter what phase it is located in. That is why my forecast has no long term warmth but I agree with you that the weather will be active. Maybe this year when the pattern changes towards spring we get that huge mid-March storm that can produce snow here. Still plenty of cold to work with in Canada and no big warm for them either in the long term.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and not sure how far north the severe weather advances and to me more of a heavy rain situation. We do get the second low but its much further south near the GOM and that low will miss us to the east but again could hit southeast Kentucky with some snow next weekend.

Just to add a little more info and models are trending this system stronger heading this way. At the moment I still believe the severe weather will be to the south of us but if this storm somehow gets stronger then maybe the severe weather makes it further north. The problem is this system is loaded with moisture once again and yes stronger than last weeks storm but this one is moving rather quickly. Long term still very typical mid-late Feb with some warm days and some cold but see nothing that last more than a few days either way.

Yeah, it looks like more of a heavy rain event to me also with some rumbles of thunder, lightning, some wind possible. The SPC current outlook is fine this far away anyway. Model runs are def going to change for several more days. As of 2/9, MJO still stalled in weak phase 2 per the Aussies. It is in no hurry to move anywhere attm. So I continue to like the roller coaster temp call, which means active weather. Just hope we can squeak out a little more snow before our chances totally go bye bye.

I agree Les and concerning the mjo and the trend this season has for it to be slow moving no matter what phase it is located in. That is why my forecast has no long term warmth but I agree with you that the weather will be active. Maybe this year when the pattern changes towards spring we get that huge mid-March storm that can produce snow here. Still plenty of cold to work with in Canada and no big warm for them either in the long term.

You never know Tim. One nice storm can salvage our snow season for sure. I remember 07-08, we had an ice storm and about 6" of snow in the books going into March when that big one hit to save our otherwise dismal season. It can happen! We'll see! I still have terrible ice on my driveway so this system next week is welcome to get rid of it as well as the warmth and rain today. A Bengals win and some flakes late on Sun into the evening would be a nice treat! Let's hope both work out.

[tpweather]

A nice light snow falling during the game would be great. Neighbors start the party at 4pm so by 630 when the game starts I should have finished my first beer lol. My problem with the Bengals in big games and this goes back over 40 years is I drink tons of beer when I am nervous and really never stop during the game. Lucky my wife will be there and hand me a water or two over those 6-7 hours.

[tron777]

A nice light snow falling during the game would be great. Neighbors start the party at 4pm so by 630 when the game starts I should have finished my first beer lol. My problem with the Bengals in big games and this goes back over 40 years is I drink tons of beer when I am nervous and really never stop during the game. Lucky my wife will be there and hand me a water or two over those 6-7 hours.

Might be a good time to whip out the cards during the half time show. I see easy money!

[tpweather]

A nice light snow falling during the game would be great. Neighbors start the party at 4pm so by 630 when the game starts I should have finished my first beer lol. My problem with the Bengals in big games and this goes back over 40 years is I drink tons of beer when I am nervous and really never stop during the game. Lucky my wife will be there and hand me a water or two over those 6-7 hours.

Might be a good time to whip out the cards during the half time show. I see easy money!

Lol. My guess 2 hours of cards before the game and no doubt during the halftime show.