January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
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BookNerdCarp
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion/Who Dey!
CB
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tron777
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion/Who Dey!
I kind of like it! It sums up this season perfectly so far.
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tron777
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion/Who Dey!
15Z SREF
CVG - 2.3"
HAO - 1.8"
ILN - 3.5"
MGY - 2"
DAY - 1.7"
CMH - 4.4"
CVG - 2.3"
HAO - 1.8"
ILN - 3.5"
MGY - 2"
DAY - 1.7"
CMH - 4.4"
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tron777
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion/Who Dey!
N AR / S MO - MD for heavy snow:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0069.html
Low starting to get going slowly.. 1008 MB over South Western Mississippi. Pressure falls suggest it may lift NE to Central AL later.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0069.html
Low starting to get going slowly.. 1008 MB over South Western Mississippi. Pressure falls suggest it may lift NE to Central AL later.
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tron777
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
The boys:
There is quite a bit to unpack during the short term period, so
let us get right to it.
The long-awaited system will finally arrive and track through
parts of the TN/OH Vly through the short term period, bringing
steady wintry pcpn to SE/E parts of the ILN FA beginning early
to middle of the afternoon. Most of the first part of the
daytime period we will be in a waiting mode, with a mix of sun
and clouds and temps that will likely push into the upper 30s
in a few spots, even as mid/high level clouds stream in from the
south during this time. But the arrival of the steady banded
pcpn will be rather abrupt by mid/late afternoon, especially for
locations in N/NE KY and SC OH, followed shortly by parts of
central OH more toward the evening hours.
There remain some subtle differences in the model depiction of
where exactly the H8 low is going to track, and what
implications that track will have on the amounts and impacts of
snow (and a wintry mix) locally. Some of the synoptic/global
data has come into a bit better agreement regarding the track of
the system, which was always going to be the biggest /but not
the only/ factor in determining what areas would be most likely
to see significant accumulations of snow. There will continue to
be some positional variability in the various solutions as we
progress closer to the event, which will prompt some (hopefully)
subtle fcst changes even as we head through tonight and the
first part of the day on Sunday.
Regarding our expectations as of right now, ensemble mean
probabilities continue to tighten near/E of the I-71 corridor
both in regards to overall QPF and snowfall exceedance
thresholds. This gave us enough confidence, considering the full
suite of data, to upgrade the far eastern parts of the previous
watch to a warning as confidence has increased enough in these
areas to suggest that at least 4 inches of snow is likely to
accumulate. It is important to note, at this juncture, that
Licking Co OH was issued a Winter Weather Advisory with the
lower snowfall criteria (6") for a 12-hr period, even with the
expectation for Licking Co OH to see similar snowfall totals as
locations that are actually in the warning (where the 12-hr
snowfall criteria is 4"). This remains a very tricky fcst with
subtle changes in the positioning and pivoting of the
deformation band determining who gets several inches of snow and
who may see little to nothing at all. For several days, the data
has pointed toward the tightest snowfall gradient running
straight through the heart of the ILN FA, and the most recent
data shows nothing different. And despite some variation in
exact location, expect that there will be a thumper of a snow
band pivot N/NE through parts of NE KY and SC/central OH
between about 22z-04z, with snowfall rates near/exceeding 1"/hr
at times for these locations. These high snowfall rates will
quickly coat/cover warmer surfaces, with rapid accumulations
possible in a several hour window for any one location.
An advisory has been issued in the "buffer" zone between the
warning and where there is no headline in effect. It is
important to note that there is the expectation this advisory
will eventually be expanded to include a few more counties once
we can really hone- in on where the gradient is going to set up
(on a county- level). So it does not mean that there is no snow
expected even for areas that are not currently in a warning or
advisory.
One concerning item to note regarding expectations for ptype, even
as far east as central OH, is a signal for fairly meager moisture
availability in the DGZ at various points throughout the event,
including between 00z-06z when pcpn intensity is expected to be
maximized locally. There may be sufficient saturation at the lower
end of the DGZ (-8C to -10C) to maintain ice nucleation and keep the
ptype as all snow. But this is far from certain given some recent
fcst sounding analysis, and is a /completely separate/ issue from
the nose of warm air aloft which may impact ptypes earlier in the
evening. So there remains a very distinct possibility that small
pockets of freezing rain may briefly mix in with the steadier/heavier
snow rates mid/late evening as far N as central OH, which would
be obvious cause for additional and new concerns. The data is
not conclusive as to whether this will become an issue or how
much freezing rain could mix in, so ice accretion amounts in the
official fcst were held to mainly a glaze/several hundredths. But
even if we are able to maintain sufficient ice nucleation in
parts of SC/central OH within the 00z-06z time frame, the
dendrite growth will probably still be suboptimal, leading to
questions regarding SLRs, with a trend toward 8:1, or lower,
ratios very much in-play. So even an all/mostly-snow scenario
would tend to produce slightly lower snow totals, all else being
equal.
The above discussion also bears watching for the "backside" of the
heavier pcpn or where the lighter pcpn would occur on the western
fringes of the band. There will be a fairly rapid decrease in
moisture availability within the DGZ also on the /western/ fringe of
the band of pcpn, leading to concerns regarding a very brief period
of freezing drizzle on the backside of the departing pcpn band,
which could impact areas that receive little to snow at all
(such as toward Cincy metro area). The positional variability
regarding the collocation of these different ingredients and
parameters remains a challenge for this fcst. But do want to at
least mention the potential for a brief period of light drizzle
on the backside of the pcpn, which could create a very light
glaze on all untreated surfaces with air temps generally in the
mid 20s for most of the nighttime period near the I-71 corridor.
Still too early to include freezing drizzle in the fcst as
uncertainty remains too high at this juncture, but wanted to
mention it in the discussion for at least some awareness.
Accumulating snowfall will pull east quickly through the eastern
half of the area past 06z Monday, with steady snow finally
tapering off in central OH toward 09z and beyond. But as this
occurs, the arrival of a S/W from the WNW will prompt the
development of some snow showers, initially to the west of the
ILN FA, during the predawn hours. There will be a reintroduction
of moisture/sufficiently saturated profile in the lower part of
the DGZ with the arrival of the Monday morning system, so
presence of ice in the cloud will no longer be an issue as this
activity moves in from the west (even as the steadier/heavier
pcpn moves out in the east). With sufficiently cold LL/ground
conditions, any snow shower activity early Monday morning into
the afternoon may create brief light accumulations on untreated
surfaces. Westerly winds will also increase late Sunday night
into Monday morning, with sustained winds of 15 MPH and gusts to
25 MPH possible toward daybreak.
There is quite a bit to unpack during the short term period, so
let us get right to it.
The long-awaited system will finally arrive and track through
parts of the TN/OH Vly through the short term period, bringing
steady wintry pcpn to SE/E parts of the ILN FA beginning early
to middle of the afternoon. Most of the first part of the
daytime period we will be in a waiting mode, with a mix of sun
and clouds and temps that will likely push into the upper 30s
in a few spots, even as mid/high level clouds stream in from the
south during this time. But the arrival of the steady banded
pcpn will be rather abrupt by mid/late afternoon, especially for
locations in N/NE KY and SC OH, followed shortly by parts of
central OH more toward the evening hours.
There remain some subtle differences in the model depiction of
where exactly the H8 low is going to track, and what
implications that track will have on the amounts and impacts of
snow (and a wintry mix) locally. Some of the synoptic/global
data has come into a bit better agreement regarding the track of
the system, which was always going to be the biggest /but not
the only/ factor in determining what areas would be most likely
to see significant accumulations of snow. There will continue to
be some positional variability in the various solutions as we
progress closer to the event, which will prompt some (hopefully)
subtle fcst changes even as we head through tonight and the
first part of the day on Sunday.
Regarding our expectations as of right now, ensemble mean
probabilities continue to tighten near/E of the I-71 corridor
both in regards to overall QPF and snowfall exceedance
thresholds. This gave us enough confidence, considering the full
suite of data, to upgrade the far eastern parts of the previous
watch to a warning as confidence has increased enough in these
areas to suggest that at least 4 inches of snow is likely to
accumulate. It is important to note, at this juncture, that
Licking Co OH was issued a Winter Weather Advisory with the
lower snowfall criteria (6") for a 12-hr period, even with the
expectation for Licking Co OH to see similar snowfall totals as
locations that are actually in the warning (where the 12-hr
snowfall criteria is 4"). This remains a very tricky fcst with
subtle changes in the positioning and pivoting of the
deformation band determining who gets several inches of snow and
who may see little to nothing at all. For several days, the data
has pointed toward the tightest snowfall gradient running
straight through the heart of the ILN FA, and the most recent
data shows nothing different. And despite some variation in
exact location, expect that there will be a thumper of a snow
band pivot N/NE through parts of NE KY and SC/central OH
between about 22z-04z, with snowfall rates near/exceeding 1"/hr
at times for these locations. These high snowfall rates will
quickly coat/cover warmer surfaces, with rapid accumulations
possible in a several hour window for any one location.
An advisory has been issued in the "buffer" zone between the
warning and where there is no headline in effect. It is
important to note that there is the expectation this advisory
will eventually be expanded to include a few more counties once
we can really hone- in on where the gradient is going to set up
(on a county- level). So it does not mean that there is no snow
expected even for areas that are not currently in a warning or
advisory.
One concerning item to note regarding expectations for ptype, even
as far east as central OH, is a signal for fairly meager moisture
availability in the DGZ at various points throughout the event,
including between 00z-06z when pcpn intensity is expected to be
maximized locally. There may be sufficient saturation at the lower
end of the DGZ (-8C to -10C) to maintain ice nucleation and keep the
ptype as all snow. But this is far from certain given some recent
fcst sounding analysis, and is a /completely separate/ issue from
the nose of warm air aloft which may impact ptypes earlier in the
evening. So there remains a very distinct possibility that small
pockets of freezing rain may briefly mix in with the steadier/heavier
snow rates mid/late evening as far N as central OH, which would
be obvious cause for additional and new concerns. The data is
not conclusive as to whether this will become an issue or how
much freezing rain could mix in, so ice accretion amounts in the
official fcst were held to mainly a glaze/several hundredths. But
even if we are able to maintain sufficient ice nucleation in
parts of SC/central OH within the 00z-06z time frame, the
dendrite growth will probably still be suboptimal, leading to
questions regarding SLRs, with a trend toward 8:1, or lower,
ratios very much in-play. So even an all/mostly-snow scenario
would tend to produce slightly lower snow totals, all else being
equal.
The above discussion also bears watching for the "backside" of the
heavier pcpn or where the lighter pcpn would occur on the western
fringes of the band. There will be a fairly rapid decrease in
moisture availability within the DGZ also on the /western/ fringe of
the band of pcpn, leading to concerns regarding a very brief period
of freezing drizzle on the backside of the departing pcpn band,
which could impact areas that receive little to snow at all
(such as toward Cincy metro area). The positional variability
regarding the collocation of these different ingredients and
parameters remains a challenge for this fcst. But do want to at
least mention the potential for a brief period of light drizzle
on the backside of the pcpn, which could create a very light
glaze on all untreated surfaces with air temps generally in the
mid 20s for most of the nighttime period near the I-71 corridor.
Still too early to include freezing drizzle in the fcst as
uncertainty remains too high at this juncture, but wanted to
mention it in the discussion for at least some awareness.
Accumulating snowfall will pull east quickly through the eastern
half of the area past 06z Monday, with steady snow finally
tapering off in central OH toward 09z and beyond. But as this
occurs, the arrival of a S/W from the WNW will prompt the
development of some snow showers, initially to the west of the
ILN FA, during the predawn hours. There will be a reintroduction
of moisture/sufficiently saturated profile in the lower part of
the DGZ with the arrival of the Monday morning system, so
presence of ice in the cloud will no longer be an issue as this
activity moves in from the west (even as the steadier/heavier
pcpn moves out in the east). With sufficiently cold LL/ground
conditions, any snow shower activity early Monday morning into
the afternoon may create brief light accumulations on untreated
surfaces. Westerly winds will also increase late Sunday night
into Monday morning, with sustained winds of 15 MPH and gusts to
25 MPH possible toward daybreak.
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tron777
- Major Hurricane
- Posts: 20481
- Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
- Location: Burlington, KY
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
18Z RGEM:
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Ddmeyer004
- Rain Shower
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- Location: Minster, Ohio
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
That low is still pivoting around Memphis….this storm is taking it’s lovely time moving back north. That said and with that low being around Memphis this has the possibility to bring us some measureable snow if the warm air doesn’t overpower it. Seeing less snow and more rain however once it starts to move north I think the cold air will win over….let’s see what it does once it moves into Kentucky
Executive Pitmaster/Owner
Flyin Swine BBQ Competition Team
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Who Dey!!! Great game so far! Bengals are playing better then the models lol!
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tron777
- Major Hurricane
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
I think we will be cold enough for all snow along / NW of I-71 corridor. Only in the far SE would sleet and . or rain be an issue. Going to be a cold night tonight in the trend. With NW wind and increasing clouds tomorrow, I can't see it getting very warm.Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 4:39 pmThat low is still pivoting around Memphis….this storm is taking it’s lovely time moving back north. That said and with that low being around Memphis this has the possibility to bring us some measurable snow if the warm air doesn’t overpower it. Seeing less snow and more rain however once it starts to move north I think the cold air will win over….let’s see what it does once it moves into Kentucky
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tron777
- Major Hurricane
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- Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
18Z Euro had 0.11" for CVG tomorrow and 0..02" with the trailing wave Monday.
CMH - Googly Moogly!
SUN 18Z 16-JAN 3.3 -1.9 1012 31 78 0.00 550 540
MON 00Z 17-JAN -1.2 -1.1 1007 75 98 0.06 545 540
MON 06Z 17-JAN -2.7 -3.9 999 92 98 0.60 535 535
MON 12Z 17-JAN -3.7 -8.2 1000 73 100 0.08 528 528
MON 18Z 17-JAN -2.6 -11.1 1005 66 99 0.02 529 525
TUE 00Z 18-JAN -2.1 -10.8 1011 72 27 0.00 534 525
TUE 06Z 18-JAN -3.6 -9.9 1016 78 56 0.01 538 525
FGX
SUN 18Z 16-JAN 1.4 -0.4 1010 69 99 0.03 550 542
MON 00Z 17-JAN -0.8 -1.2 1004 96 97 0.56 543 539
MON 06Z 17-JAN -1.7 -3.7 1001 94 100 0.24 536 535
MON 12Z 17-JAN -4.3 -9.6 1005 59 85 0.02 529 525
MON 18Z 17-JAN -2.4 -11.2 1009 73 84 0.01 531 524
CMH - Googly Moogly!
SUN 18Z 16-JAN 3.3 -1.9 1012 31 78 0.00 550 540
MON 00Z 17-JAN -1.2 -1.1 1007 75 98 0.06 545 540
MON 06Z 17-JAN -2.7 -3.9 999 92 98 0.60 535 535
MON 12Z 17-JAN -3.7 -8.2 1000 73 100 0.08 528 528
MON 18Z 17-JAN -2.6 -11.1 1005 66 99 0.02 529 525
TUE 00Z 18-JAN -2.1 -10.8 1011 72 27 0.00 534 525
TUE 06Z 18-JAN -3.6 -9.9 1016 78 56 0.01 538 525
FGX
SUN 18Z 16-JAN 1.4 -0.4 1010 69 99 0.03 550 542
MON 00Z 17-JAN -0.8 -1.2 1004 96 97 0.56 543 539
MON 06Z 17-JAN -1.7 -3.7 1001 94 100 0.24 536 535
MON 12Z 17-JAN -4.3 -9.6 1005 59 85 0.02 529 525
MON 18Z 17-JAN -2.4 -11.2 1009 73 84 0.01 531 524
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BookNerdCarp
- EF0 Tornado
- Posts: 337
- Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:57 pm
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Wow!tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:30 pm 18Z Euro had 0.11" for CVG tomorrow and 0..02" with the trailing wave Monday.
CMH - Googly Moogly!
SUN 18Z 16-JAN 3.3 -1.9 1012 31 78 0.00 550 540
MON 00Z 17-JAN -1.2 -1.1 1007 75 98 0.06 545 540
MON 06Z 17-JAN -2.7 -3.9 999 92 98 0.60 535 535
MON 12Z 17-JAN -3.7 -8.2 1000 73 100 0.08 528 528
MON 18Z 17-JAN -2.6 -11.1 1005 66 99 0.02 529 525
TUE 00Z 18-JAN -2.1 -10.8 1011 72 27 0.00 534 525
TUE 06Z 18-JAN -3.6 -9.9 1016 78 56 0.01 538 525
FGX
SUN 18Z 16-JAN 1.4 -0.4 1010 69 99 0.03 550 542
MON 00Z 17-JAN -0.8 -1.2 1004 96 97 0.56 543 539
MON 06Z 17-JAN -1.7 -3.7 1001 94 100 0.24 536 535
MON 12Z 17-JAN -4.3 -9.6 1005 59 85 0.02 529 525
MON 18Z 17-JAN -2.4 -11.2 1009 73 84 0.01 531 524
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
After looking at snowfall maps for the last three days, I now hate the color gray!
Brookville, Ohio
Northwest Montgomery county
I70 Corridor
Northwest Montgomery county
I70 Corridor
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Ddmeyer004
- Rain Shower
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Les this has been a crazy storm to watch. It seems to be taking it’s lovely time moving. It would be nice to see some of those heavier areas lay down a nice deform band across our area. Hoping for the best for your neck of the woods as well as Masontron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:27 pmI think we will be cold enough for all snow along / NW of I-71 corridor. Only in the far SE would sleet and . or rain be an issue. Going to be a cold night tonight in the trend. With NW wind and increasing clouds tomorrow, I can't see it getting very warm.Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 4:39 pmThat low is still pivoting around Memphis….this storm is taking it’s lovely time moving back north. That said and with that low being around Memphis this has the possibility to bring us some measurable snow if the warm air doesn’t overpower it. Seeing less snow and more rain however once it starts to move north I think the cold air will win over….let’s see what it does once it moves into Kentucky
Executive Pitmaster/Owner
Flyin Swine BBQ Competition Team
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BookNerdCarp
- EF0 Tornado
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
CB is all in on latest runs
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
AMP NAM time 
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH
The KING of the domes!
Miamisburg, OH
The KING of the domes!
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Bgoney
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
NAM continues to be a hoot . Every run is a roulette spin.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
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Ddmeyer004
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Bgoney this entire system has been a hoot. I’m like you….going with my gut on this one. Too much crazy data
Executive Pitmaster/Owner
Flyin Swine BBQ Competition Team
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
AMP NAM has 8" at ILN and almost nothing in western Montgomery county LOL Columbus gets crushed!
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH
The KING of the domes!
Miamisburg, OH
The KING of the domes!
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
CMH Oh my:
SUN 7P 16-JAN -3.1 -1.4 1006 88 94 0.05 546 541
MON 1A 17-JAN -3.6 -3.0 997 94 94 0.76 532 535
MON 7A 17-JAN -4.7 -8.5 1000 79 74 0.17 527 527
MON 1P 17-JAN -1.5 -11.7 1004 80 61 0.02 528 524
CVG:
SUN 7P 16-JAN -1.1 -1.7 1005 82 95 0.13 544 540
MON 1A 17-JAN -2.6 -4.1 1001 68 31 0.18 534 533
DAY:
SUN 7P 16-JAN -1.1 -1.5 1006 69 95 0.02 545 540
MON 1A 17-JAN -3.4 -4.0 1000 75 63 0.23 533 534
SUN 7P 16-JAN -3.1 -1.4 1006 88 94 0.05 546 541
MON 1A 17-JAN -3.6 -3.0 997 94 94 0.76 532 535
MON 7A 17-JAN -4.7 -8.5 1000 79 74 0.17 527 527
MON 1P 17-JAN -1.5 -11.7 1004 80 61 0.02 528 524
CVG:
SUN 7P 16-JAN -1.1 -1.7 1005 82 95 0.13 544 540
MON 1A 17-JAN -2.6 -4.1 1001 68 31 0.18 534 533
DAY:
SUN 7P 16-JAN -1.1 -1.5 1006 69 95 0.02 545 540
MON 1A 17-JAN -3.4 -4.0 1000 75 63 0.23 533 534
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH
The KING of the domes!
Miamisburg, OH
The KING of the domes!
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mainevilleweather
- Thunder Storm
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Explain the numbers please..
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young pup
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
The crazy nam.
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
According to the NAM:
CMH (Columbus) shows 1.0" liquid which at 10:1 ratio would be 10" snow
CVG has 0.31" liquid which at 10:1 is 3.1" snow
DAY has 0.25" liquid which at 10:1 is 2.5" snow
NAM is frequently AMP'ed up so take these with a grain of salt.
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH
The KING of the domes!
Miamisburg, OH
The KING of the domes!
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mainevilleweather
- Thunder Storm
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Ddmeyer004
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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Any other time I would agree with you 100% about the crazy NAM….but this storm as acted crazier than the NAM…..so at this point I’m not discounting anything.
Executive Pitmaster/Owner
Flyin Swine BBQ Competition Team
