Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:22 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:13 pm Light rain started here - currently 35/21. Good to see the first 0.01" in the new gauge. Guess that means I installed it correctly LOL

Awesome Mike! It should get a workout with our next system. When I first got mine, I compared it to CVG to see if it was working correctly. I assume you'll do that with MGY.

MGY at 0.07" so pretty dang close

0.17" at CVG as of 4pm. 0.21" here. I am also down to 33 with a dew of 29.

Got some light sleet falling up here atm.

I'm in Springboro this afternoon. I am surprised to see a small amount of ice build up on the trees. There was no ice build up just up the road in southern Montgomery County.

I've seen a few icicles forming on elevated surfaces like trees. Still at 33 degrees with 0.31" of QPF. Models actually did well with the QPF on this event at least down here.

EDIT: Back edge of the rain looks to be moving in shortly.

Icicles on railings and patio lights as I was leaving work. Disgusting weather day

32 here for the past couple hours .

33 here and 0.31”. Guess my dry air idea bombed out LOL

Still at 33... up to 0.34" now. Trev, I agree... it was a nasty weather day. I would have rather seen snow to be honest. 33 and rain as most know is like the worst LOL

Looking forward to some sustained mildness next week! :grin:

I hear ya, Trev!

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville.

Up to 35 now so any threat for frz rain is over. Ended up with a final of 0.34" and CVG 0.29".

My final total was 0.33”. Up to 35 now. Really had no ice here at all on trees and cars. Just the brief sleet earlier today.

Actually had some thunder around 3:30 or so this morning. Tacked on another 0.10”. Up to 38.

Also of note - SPC has areas along and south of the river in slight risk for Thursday.

For the Dixie Alley outbreak tomorrow and tomorrow night, looks like a majority of any strong tornadoes could be at night so definitely not a good situation unfolding.

Here is the SREF SIG tor parameter for 8pm tomorrow. Pretty large 75% area in Mississippi.

Definitely looking like a major tornado outbreak from West TN, ARK, MS, and AL tomorrow. As the low passes by, some of AV Country is also under a slight risk for Thursday as Mike mentioned. SPC Day 3 Outlook:


The further north the low tracks, the better shot for severe wx we'll see here.

Today will be a bit cooler then I was originally expecting... Upper 50s maybe 60 degrees. Tomorrow is a nice one in the mid 60s. then we get wet Wed night thru Thurs night. 1-2" of rain continues to show up on the models. Friday is a cooler day in the 40s before a nice weekend period into early next week... 50s warming back into the 60s with plenty of sunshine. The main weather story for the rest of this week is the severe wx threat and heavy rainfall.

Looks a little foggy out there this morning but not too dense at least here imby. I saw some dense fog advisories issued though for folks well to our W and SW. Still waiting on that warm front to come thru to boost our temps up.

Good Morning Les and a much better day. Even saw a few big snowflakes mixed in with the rain yesterday afternoon. Hopefully we get a good widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall this week. Severe weather still expected south of here and again a few rumbles of thunder is possible but a severe outbreak here is very unlikely and a period of heavy rainfall though is possible. Next week I believe the severe chances will start to rise and something we will need to look at once we get past the weekend which is shaping up to be rather nice and already have a head start on some outdoor projects because of the nice weather we had earlier in the month. Glad to see the mountains out west getting some decent late season snows which happens quite often and really helps for their water needs this year. Ready for spring and the time change which usually throws off my sleep for a few days did not happen this year but it has been cloudy so that has helped. Just a little over 6 months until fall.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:50 am Glad to see the mountains out west getting some decent late season snows which happens quite often and really helps for their water needs this year.

Great point here Tim! Pretty much the entire state of Colorado, for example, was under D2-D4 conditions. This past snowstorm will most definitely help to trim this down in the coming days. Plus, they are entering their climatological snowstorm peak out there (Mar-Apr) so hopefully they can keep adding on to their snow base.

Good morning Tim! I think heavy rain is a good bet and the worst of the severe wx will absolutely remain to our south, However, an isolated severe storm is possible on Thursday because the low pressure will be moving thru the area so we'll get some good spin and shear. The question is going to be instability. Do we get an all day Thursday rain which would kill off those chances or a short enough break in the rain, like what the Euro suggests for example, to boost temps up into the mid and upper 60s which would give us that isolated chance. It'll be a close call but with the low in the vicinity, that is why I think the SPC did what they did. It is a very low end risk for sure, but not totally zero. Just something to watch on Thursday to see if we get that break in the late morning thru the early afternoon hours. Gotta have that break or the chances will be almost nil.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:00 am Good morning Tim! I think heavy rain is a good bet and the worst of the severe wx will absolutely remain to our south, However, an isolated severe storm is possible on Thursday because the low pressure will be moving thru the area so we'll get some good spin and shear. The question is going to be instability. Do we get an all day Thursday rain which would kill off those chances or a short enough break in the rain, like what the Euro suggests for example, to boost temps up into the mid and upper 60s which would give us that isolated chance. It'll be a close call but with the low in the vicinity, that is why I think the SPC did what they did. It is a very low end risk for sure, but not totally zero. Just something to watch on Thursday to see if we get that break in the late morning thru the early afternoon hours. Gotta have that break or the chances will be almost nil.

Hey Les and Mike, great posts this morning. I agree Les that its not a complete shutout of severe weather but widespread locally I do not see that happening. I am leaning towards the Euro with an all day rain but like you mentioned a break between 12p-3pm can boost up the instability so always something to watch. Mike the snows out west do have the peak during March and April and usually the snows this time of year have large liquid content compared to drier snows in mid-winter. Still worry about the south central states and hoping rainfall picks up down there and another place that could use the rainfall is the northern plains as they were 60-70 % below normal in terms of snowfall in certain areas and yes that has helped on their normal spring flooding but with tons of farms in that area they need the snows as well for spring wheat crop.

A lot of dryness is happening up north and in New England as well. So far, we are doing just fine and the rest of March continues to look active. Hopefully that trend continues going into April. Yes, it means severe wx is likely but you don't want to start drying out this early. It'll be a long, hot summer if we do. Thankfully, at this time, there are no signs of that happening for us.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/03/16/goode- ... ther-blog/

12z 3km NAM shows our thoughts for Thursday...looks like areas to our south and southeast stand greatest risk of potential severe storms. The below forecast is for 5pm Thursday and you can see some isolated cells showing up there.