Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 6:01 pm Good Evening and not sure where to put the news so I picked this area. My mom died this morning and she is finally heading to her heaven. She was very religious and just wish her peace. She was 92 and for the most part very healthy until she broke her first hip about 12 years ago. Will be busy this week and probably next week as we make plans and that includes my son coming in from Wisconsin. So yes I will still be here at times and does help in keeping your mind busy.

I’m so sorry for your loss Tim. Please accept my thoughts and prayers for you and your family.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 6:01 pm Good Evening and not sure where to put the news so I picked this area. My mom died this morning and she is finally heading to her heaven. She was very religious and just wish her peace. She was 92 and for the most part very healthy until she broke her first hip about 12 years ago. Will be busy this week and probably next week as we make plans and that includes my son coming in from Wisconsin. So yes I will still be here at times and does help in keeping your mind busy.

I'm very sorry for your loss. My Mom went to heaven in 2020. Not a day goes by without thoughts of her! Sending you and your family positive thoughts and praying for all of you.

Euro and CMC for this weekend are more SE and thus, have a better deform back on snow on Sunday versus the GFS who went back NW to track the low over us, which never works out for backside snow. Will continue to monitor.,.. Also, the event for next week I am watching is a swing and a miss right now but that's fine. Long ways to go for that one. Like 7 days.

Good Morning and will talk about storm number 2 in the correct place but what about storm number 3. Les you are correct about it being further southeast and why is always important. There is a larger break between storm number 2 and storm number 3. There will finally be plenty of snow in the central plains and the cold that is to the northwest is really cold. How far southeast is still up in the air when you add all the factors. Again the snow in the central plains has not taken place and by this time on Thursday will the models move this system even southeast. Will be interesting to see how that storm plays out and yes afterwards the bulk of the cold will be heading this way and next no doubt much colder than this week and will see if the cold has pushed too far south and leaves us cold and dry though I don't believe that is the case

Euro and EPS did come north some to trend closer to the GFS. CMC is now the furthest SE from the global models. The low track will be key for any Sunday morning snow fall. If the low tracks too close to us then it won't be a big deal snow wise at all. A track near the Apps would be ideal, I just don't know if that's going to happen or not.

Here is a wonderful site to see all of the MJO model forecasts in one convenient place.


http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html


I will add this link to our weather links and bookmarks thread too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:17 am Here is a wonderful site to see all of the MJO model forecasts in one convenient place.


http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html


I will add this link to our weather links and bookmarks thread too.

I used to watch his videos on LaNina/ElNino all the time. Learned a lot from those

That is a great site Les. When I looked at the mjo one item I normally disregard is like a few weeks away it shows going into the COD phase. Sure sometimes that is correct but many times just heads back to the mean. Does look like a phase 8 on the way and with the AO very very negative the potential for winter weather is good. The NAO looks to be neutral and that is not horrible and if somehow that goes really negative that would keep the storms more towards the east coast and we would just be cold and dry.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:29 am That is a great site Les. When I looked at the mjo one item I normally disregard is like a few weeks away it shows going into the COD phase. Sure sometimes that is correct but many times just heads back to the mean. Does look like a phase 8 on the way and with the AO very very negative the potential for winter weather is good. The NAO looks to be neutral and that is not horrible and if somehow that goes really negative that would keep the storms more towards the east coast and we would just be cold and dry.

I think we are on our way into Phase 8, then 1, 2, and eventually 3. All of these are cold phases in Feb and Mar. AO is deeply negative with a neutral NAO (as you mentioned) all in all... winter has plenty left in the tank and there still will be chances for us for the rest of Feb and IMO into early March too before we call it a season.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:34 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:29 am That is a great site Les. When I looked at the mjo one item I normally disregard is like a few weeks away it shows going into the COD phase. Sure sometimes that is correct but many times just heads back to the mean. Does look like a phase 8 on the way and with the AO very very negative the potential for winter weather is good. The NAO looks to be neutral and that is not horrible and if somehow that goes really negative that would keep the storms more towards the east coast and we would just be cold and dry.

I think we are on our way into Phase 8, then 1, 2, and eventually 3. All of these are cold phases in Feb and Mar. AO is deeply negative with a neutral NAO (as you mentioned) all in all... winter has plenty left in the tank and there still will be chances for us for the rest of Feb and IMO into early March too before we call it a season.

I agree Les and getting snow cover finally in the central plains helps in keeping the cold on track to move south. Sure snow melts quicker in later February but the cold next week is really cold so less melting than normal.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:34 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:29 am That is a great site Les. When I looked at the mjo one item I normally disregard is like a few weeks away it shows going into the COD phase. Sure sometimes that is correct but many times just heads back to the mean. Does look like a phase 8 on the way and with the AO very very negative the potential for winter weather is good. The NAO looks to be neutral and that is not horrible and if somehow that goes really negative that would keep the storms more towards the east coast and we would just be cold and dry.

I think we are on our way into Phase 8, then 1, 2, and eventually 3. All of these are cold phases in Feb and Mar. AO is deeply negative with a neutral NAO (as you mentioned) all in all... winter has plenty left in the tank and there still will be chances for us for the rest of Feb and IMO into early March too before we call it a season.

I agree Les and getting snow cover finally in the central plains helps in keeping the cold on track to move south. Sure snow melts quicker in later February but the cold next week is really cold so less melting than normal.

No doubt Tim! Lows in the teens and highs in the 20s and 30s is impressive for this time of year and we will see some of that next week. If we can get snow cover down, a night in the single digits is also in play.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 5:52 pm I would like to thank everybody with the kind words concerning my mom's passing. She was a sweet lady who is finally home.

Hey Tim, sorry for your loss with thoughts and prayers, I lost my mom in Feb of 2007 and still miss her. It does get better with time but the good memories stay with you!

Not looking forward to the deep cold next week unless we can cash in on a big snow! A little more snow and then I'm ready for spring!

Good morning Joe... I'm still eye balling the middle portion of next week. This time, cold air isn't an issue, but the track, intensity, and amount of moisture involved is what we will be tracking over the next week.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 9:51 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 5:52 pm I would like to thank everybody with the kind words concerning my mom's passing. She was a sweet lady who is finally home.

Hey Tim, sorry for your loss with thoughts and prayers, I lost my mom in Feb of 2007 and still miss her. It does get better with time but the good memories stay with you!

Not looking forward to the deep cold next week unless we can cash in on a big snow! A little more snow and then I'm ready for spring!

Thanks Joe. Never easy and lost my sister November 2023 and Monday my mom. My dad died in 1980. No other brothers or sisters. My mom will be buried with my dad in Floral Hills in Taylor Mill and a beautiful place

Brian had another great video and though its not in this thread the most important part was about the storm this weekend. I believe he showed the Euro and the amounts were no doubt very high especially along the river. The most powerful of the storms this week and yes with a break in the action for a good 48 hours moisture can return quite easily in mid-Feb. The model has a southwest-northeast line of very heavy rain along the river. Will that be the final outcome and probably not as we get more information but this should be a widespread rain event until the colder air moves in Sunday morning. I have the heaviest rainfall just a tad further southeast than what that model showed but lets get through Thursday and then hopefully can narrow down that piece of the puzzle. He also mentioned energy next week and he said just wait and see because models will change track and how strong the system is and also can we finally get some decent blocking to the northeast.

I was thinking up to an inch of rain would be possible Sat and Sat night, but if these NW bumps continue on the modeling, the rainfall amounts will need to be raised as well. Could see 2" of rain as it stands now in our SE zones. Not good for future flooding concerns which is the bigger weather story in my mind.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 10:53 am I was thinking up to an inch of rain would be possible Sat and Sat night, but if these NW bumps continue on the modeling, the rainfall amounts will need to be raised as well. Could see 2" of rain as it stands now in our SE zones. Not good for future flooding concerns which is the bigger weather story in my mind.

Les I believe the northwest bumps are not correct and the reason the brunt of the cold air should be arriving with this system and yes warm against cold but with shot I see the cold should win this battle and I have the heaviest rains over southern Kentucky. Still going to get a nice dose but believe the heaviest south of here

12Z GFS took a bump back to the SE which is good news and it also seems a bit faster as well. We would like to see a slower departure on Sunday for back side snow prospects though. However, if we end up seeing a weaker system, that means a further SE track but it would also mean a faster moving system too which lowers backside snow potential on Sunday. Still, a lot of uncertainty with this weekend's system so stay tuned!

12Z CMC is more to the NW so we get into some of the heavier rains as a result. This is a solution that we don't want to see.

Also watching the middle of next week too for some snow. GFS looking decent with the CMC still showing the suppressed look.

12Z GEFS for next Wed took a bump north (vs 6Z) with the QPF which is good.

FYI--- There's a data problem at ECMWF Headquarters so the Euro and EPS data will be delayed. It is unknown as to when the Euro will be back online.

4 days out , so I’m sure things will be shifting around but some major problems could be in the offing

After the heavy rain, for Sunday the backside snow idea with a deform band of snow is losing traction. What is more likely is that it ends as some flakes as the upper trough lags behind with snow squalls and snow showers later Sunday afternoon and evening. So that could be fun! Not as widespread but where they occur a grassy covering could be possible as temps drop and winds pick up.