January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[Phr0z3n]

Do we want this system to be slower or a little faster to keep us more on the snow side?

Double edged sword slower would be more QPF but maybe more mixing where faster would be less QPF but probably all snow

[tron777]

We want the high to move in tandem with the surface low to keep us more on the snowier side and less in the way of the mid levels warming up. This has always looked like a Miller B, imo.

[Bgoney]

Do we want this system to be slower or a little faster to keep us more on the snow side?

What a great question. I would say a tad faster as the front end is going to be all snow and and extra hour or two can only help

Agree, let’s get that moisture going asap

[winterstormjoe]

Do we want this system to be slower or a little faster to keep us more on the snow side?

Double edged sword slower would be more QPF but maybe more mixing where faster would be less QPF but probably all snow

I'll take the middle, not too fast and not too slow!

[Bgoney]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

[Phr0z3n]

Way south just like the euro at 63

[tron777]

9X's out of 10, TX Panhandle low or a Panhandle Hooker as they are called will cut NW and we get rain out of the deal. Thanks to the blocking high, the system is forced to move due east and not cut. That is the reason why this system may work out for us when normally it wouldn't at all.

[Phr0z3n]

And there you go. Way south of 06z nam and more in line with the other models

[Phr0z3n]

IMG_1233.png

[Phr0z3n]

Sharper cut off for sure.

[tron777]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

Yes Sir... big changes probably coming for the I-70 Crew forecast zone if these trends are right. Could be a 3-5" kind of deal now for places like DAY and CMH (lesser amounts north) with the bigger amounts to the south for the Tri-state area. If the rest of the 12Z suite matches, we may need to trend the forecast in this direction. For now, we don't need to make any wholesale changes yet.

[tpweather]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

I agree and the northeast wind can eat up some moisture and that was a concern I had for folks further northeast especially during the first part of the system.

[tpweather]

We want the high to move in tandem with the surface low to keep us more on the snowier side and less in the way of the mid levels warming up. This has always looked like a Miller B, imo.

I have always been a Busch man myself since I had my first one at a hippy fest in old coney in 1976

[tron777]

We want the high to move in tandem with the surface low to keep us more on the snowier side and less in the way of the mid levels warming up. This has always looked like a Miller B, imo.

I have always been a Busch man myself since I had my first one at a hippy fest in old coney in 1976

[Phr0z3n]

Hi res nam at 60 12z

IMG_1234.png

[Trentonwx06]

Still snowing as hour 84 as well.

[Bgoney]

Those devastating ice totals are close enough to be a major concern with any slight shift

[tron777]

Wondering now for precip types if the following occurs:

Ice - SE Crew counties down towards I-64 and points south.
Sleeting issues still for CVG and points south (on some models, some are all snow)
All snow Northern Cincy burbs on northbound

Something like that anyway. If we see one more bump south then I will go all snow for CVG. For now, the sleet line is very close so I will keep the mixing concerns alive and well for the time being. Hopefully, we see the 12Z GFS ditch the ice too.

[dce]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

Yes Sir... big changes probably coming for the I-70 Crew forecast zone if these trends are right. Could be a 3-5" kind of deal now for places like DAY and CMH (lesser amounts north) with the bigger amounts to the south for the Tri-state area. If the rest of the 12Z suite matches, we may need to trend the forecast in this direction. For now, we don't need to make any wholesale changes yet.

I'll take the 12z NAM please. Puts Dayton and I-70 in the foot+ zone. One thing that is becoming apparent with this storm is that the heavier snow band is getting narrower with each run. Ice will be a big problem for somebody in the northern Kentucky area. Just how far north will it get. The area that stays snow just north of the ice and sleet zone will win big!

[tron777]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

Yes Sir... big changes probably coming for the I-70 Crew forecast zone if these trends are right. Could be a 3-5" kind of deal now for places like DAY and CMH (lesser amounts north) with the bigger amounts to the south for the Tri-state area. If the rest of the 12Z suite matches, we may need to trend the forecast in this direction. For now, we don't need to make any wholesale changes yet.

I'll take the 12z NAM please. Puts Dayton and I-70 in the foot+ zone. One thing that is becoming apparent with this storm is that the heavier snow band is getting narrower with each run. Ice will be a big problem for somebody in the northern Kentucky area. Just how far north will it get. The area that stays snow just north of the ice and sleet zone will win big!

Agreed... that will be the zone that has the best chance at getting double digits. It may only be a couple rows of counties wide too for example.

[Bgoney]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

Yes Sir... big changes probably coming for the I-70 Crew forecast zone if these trends are right. Could be a 3-5" kind of deal now for places like DAY and CMH (lesser amounts north) with the bigger amounts to the south for the Tri-state area. If the rest of the 12Z suite matches, we may need to trend the forecast in this direction. For now, we don't need to make any wholesale changes yet.

I'll take the 12z NAM please. Puts Dayton and I-70 in the foot+ zone. One thing that is becoming apparent with this storm is that the heavier snow band is getting narrower with each run. Ice will be a big problem for somebody in the northern Kentucky area. Just how far north will it get. The area that stays snow just north of the ice and sleet zone will win big!

Probably won’t know where that sleet zone and then freezing rain zone end up until the very last minute

[dce]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

Yes Sir... big changes probably coming for the I-70 Crew forecast zone if these trends are right. Could be a 3-5" kind of deal now for places like DAY and CMH (lesser amounts north) with the bigger amounts to the south for the Tri-state area. If the rest of the 12Z suite matches, we may need to trend the forecast in this direction. For now, we don't need to make any wholesale changes yet.

I'll take the 12z NAM please. Puts Dayton and I-70 in the foot+ zone. One thing that is becoming apparent with this storm is that the heavier snow band is getting narrower with each run. Ice will be a big problem for somebody in the northern Kentucky area. Just how far north will it get. The area that stays snow just north of the ice and sleet zone will win big!

Probably won’t know where that sleet zone and then freezing rain zone end up until the very last minute

As we all know, that's always a last minute kind of deal. History says it's usually a little north of where it's moldeled. Can't wait to see how this storm pans out!

[tron777]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

Yes Sir... big changes probably coming for the I-70 Crew forecast zone if these trends are right. Could be a 3-5" kind of deal now for places like DAY and CMH (lesser amounts north) with the bigger amounts to the south for the Tri-state area. If the rest of the 12Z suite matches, we may need to trend the forecast in this direction. For now, we don't need to make any wholesale changes yet.

I'll take the 12z NAM please. Puts Dayton and I-70 in the foot+ zone. One thing that is becoming apparent with this storm is that the heavier snow band is getting narrower with each run. Ice will be a big problem for somebody in the northern Kentucky area. Just how far north will it get. The area that stays snow just north of the ice and sleet zone will win big!

Probably won’t know where that sleet zone and then freezing rain zone end up until the very last minute

Agreed, but we'll see some clues several hours ahead of time by where things line up to our West as discussed earlier. It'll be helpful for us in getting it right, but not as far in advance as we would like.

[tron777]

I also like on the NAM how the upper low stays intact tracking just S of Cincinnati. That looks really good for deform snow on Monday.

[tpweather]

Boy that’s a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of moisture

Yes Sir... big changes probably coming for the I-70 Crew forecast zone if these trends are right. Could be a 3-5" kind of deal now for places like DAY and CMH (lesser amounts north) with the bigger amounts to the south for the Tri-state area. If the rest of the 12Z suite matches, we may need to trend the forecast in this direction. For now, we don't need to make any wholesale changes yet.

I'll take the 12z NAM please. Puts Dayton and I-70 in the foot+ zone. One thing that is becoming apparent with this storm is that the heavier snow band is getting narrower with each run. Ice will be a big problem for somebody in the northern Kentucky area. Just how far north will it get. The area that stays snow just north of the ice and sleet zone will win big!

Probably won’t know where that sleet zone and then freezing rain zone end up until the very last minute

I agree 100p/c and when you are on that fine line it must be in the forecast imo. Hopefully by Sunday morning we have a better ideal but again storms have their own minds and already put out my neighbors weather update and told them if the trends continue today will need to raise snow totals up and go with 6-10 but also mentioned that sleet was my number one concern and can eat away at totals but that band is always narrow and with the way things are going it would be a west to east action and if you get caught in that maybe 2-4 hours where the sleet is coming down. The frz/rain always bad but if we get a decent snow pack before that happens and if it happens that gives us a little more traction. Of course by later Sunday hopefully we have an ideal about the fr/rain and will plan on how I shovel at that time.