January 2025 Wx Discussion

[tron777]

Nice graphic from Local 12:

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[Bgoney]

Finally get to display some noteworthy weather that isn’t related to record heat or drought. How the first 10 days of January stack up to history

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[tron777]

I'm impressed by that snow stat. #3 on the list for the first 10 days. I love it!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 34 and both DAY / CMH 32 today.

[kywthrluvr]

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[tron777]

Good morning all and I absolutely LOVE the stat that Leslie posted. I hope you all are enjoying this wonderful stretch of weather. If you are a huge snow weenie like me, then this has been a pattern that we may not see again for a very long time!

Okay... before we get into the weather, I'd like to wish House of Cards - DAVE - A very Happy Birthday! Enjoy your day Sir and all of that white gold that is on the ground!

[tron777]

A much milder start thanks to the clouds, but t's only 26 here and at CVG right now. We hit 34 yesterday and 35+ is possible today. We may see a little freezing drizzle and a few flakes overnight into early tomorrow. Precip amounts are light but watch for a slick spot or two Mon morning just to be on the safe side. Then, we've got the next shot on Tuesday for snow. Plenty cold and it'll be a high ratio snow too. 1" or less is expected. Some folks will see nothing, some a 1/2". One of those deals.

Once we get towards next weekend, the GFS wants to wash away our snow pack by giving us 0.25 to 0.50" of rain then we turn colder and end as some snow showers. The CMC is also GFS like with this system. Euro is a little colder (still has rain) but very little of it. tenth of an inch or less so I am rooting for this solution to maintain our snow pack. The next challenge after that is do we get a follow up system? GFS is too progressive so it's a swing and a miss. CMC hammers us with a big snow storm and the Euro is also a swing and a miss to the East. From an Ensemble standpoint, GEFS s a swing and a miss. We get grazed by the EPS so not quite a swing and a miss like the OP Euro. Lot's of uncertainty folks from Saturday the 18th onwards. Stay tuned...

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and yes this current air mass has never been that cold and if we had no snow cover we would have been in the 40's this weekend. That changes though as we have a couple of arctic fronts come through during the week which will keep us below normal until Friday. Can we see zero and a couple of mornings as we should have less problems with a clear sky,little wind and less moisture near the ground like we saw last week.

Concerning late in the week and the weekend. Yes I believe we get some rain later Friday or Saturday. Then the gfs will do what the gfs always does and jut keeps the front heading to Europe lol. The GFS does see a second piece of energy and will try and give us a quick shot of snow. The Cmc and Europe differ on the rain as the CMC is quite rainy while the Euro much drier. What is good is both see a second system and both have a big snowstorm with the CMC giving us a big storm while the Euro is on the east coast.

So yes leaning towards the latter 2 models though agree more with the CMC on the rain portion of the storm. Which one will be correct with the second system and again a toss up at this moment but those two no doubt fit the pattern much better.

[tron777]

We certainly want to see a weak SE ridge Tim to get the arctic boundary to stall so the second systems nails us. I also agree with 2 separate systems coming thru. System #1 is rain. How much to be determined then we'll see where the front stalls and how strong the second piece is for the big snow idea. Should be fun to watch this week on the models with two little clippers also to keep an eye on. Fun times ahead...

[tpweather]

Les we are on the same page and enjoy the next few weeks as I do expect a bigger pattern change in February which looks much milder and may not be easy to get a system that will bring us more snow.

[tpweather]

Good morning all and I absolutely LOVE the stat that Leslie posted. I hope you all are enjoying this wonderful stretch of weather. If you are a huge snow weenie like me, then this has been a pattern that we may not see again for a very long time!

Okay... before we get into the weather, I'd like to wish House of Cards - DAVE - A very Happy Birthday! Enjoy your day Sir and all of that white gold that is on the ground!

Happy Birthday Dave and hope you have a wonderful day. At one time I would count each year as 1 year older. I have decided that the dog years in reverse is the way to go so every 7 years just counts as 1 for me. Could somebody tell that to my body lol.

[House of Cards]

Good morning all and I absolutely LOVE the stat that Leslie posted. I hope you all are enjoying this wonderful stretch of weather. If you are a huge snow weenie like me, then this has been a pattern that we may not see again for a very long time!

Okay... before we get into the weather, I'd like to wish House of Cards - DAVE - A very Happy Birthday! Enjoy your day Sir and all of that white gold that is on the ground!

Thanks Les! and Everyone else on my Forum-Fam! I always enjoy reading on my Facebook for example all the wishes, and its a great way to remember in life just how lucky I am. I always think of the ending to one of my favorite holiday movies, It's a Wonderful Life where Clarence says "No man is a failure who has friends" Hope everyone on here is safe and warm and healthy and happy on this day, and all the year thru. Let's rock some more snow, shall we?

[House of Cards]

Good morning all and I absolutely LOVE the stat that Leslie posted. I hope you all are enjoying this wonderful stretch of weather. If you are a huge snow weenie like me, then this has been a pattern that we may not see again for a very long time!

Okay... before we get into the weather, I'd like to wish House of Cards - DAVE - A very Happy Birthday! Enjoy your day Sir and all of that white gold that is on the ground!

Happy Birthday Dave and hope you have a wonderful day. At one time I would count each year as 1 year older. I have decided that the dog years in reverse is the way to go so every 7 years just counts as 1 for me. Could somebody tell that to my body lol.

Tim, I know what you mean, my wife and I recently started working out together at the Y, I have at least 40 pounds to get rid of (well, I had that, now more like 30 after my first month!). Worked out on the elliptical yesterday, did a little free weight stuff, today I feel like a train ran me over!

[tron777]

33 at CVG so a little melting again today. Watch for black ice in the morning along with some light frz drzl / light snow in a few areas. GFS still looks good for 1/2" to 1" possible Tues afternoon and evening. Then for Sat, the GFS wants tow ash our pack away with 0.75" plus of rain. Not good for pack retention. Also, the ground is frozen so maybe some minor flooding impacts and with storm drains potentially clogged with ice and snow... Just saying that if we get that much rain it isn't good IMO. Then we turn sharply colder! A couple little guys since the GFS continues to be progressive then around the 28th, models (and the GFS too) continue to show the chance at another juicy southern system.

12Z CMC has moved towards the Euro, less rain thankfully and colder. Secondary low clips us as it is further SE on this run with regards to that follow up snow storm chance. The Euro this afternoon has 0.25" of rain on Sat then a touch of snow on the secondary low. Then it is followed by brutally cold air and another SE US snow storm.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and the models will continue to go back and forth with next weekend. How deep does the cold go in the southern plains is one key to getting that second system and where its heading. The deeper forecast would most likely keep the second system heading more towards the east coast but if the cold sort of stalls in central Texas this will allow formation of a system to head at least towards the app mountains. The cold and yes the coldest of the season but how much of that will be released and though plenty of snow cover for us still not the deepest snow pack in the northern plains or great lakes area. Will the southeast ridge make a bigger appearance and it will at sometime this season but something we need to watch as well. Will give it at least until Wednesday once the second arctic front has made it through the area. Getting deeper into the season and the GOM will become more involved as we get closer to spring

[tron777]

36 at CVG now.... get out the shorts and flip-flops!

[Spacejunk]

I am in search of a resource that could provide forecasted highs and lows out into the future as far as possible. Even if it reverts to averages. I have recently semi retired. I gave up snow plowing a few years ago. I needed a winter hobby. I have started making maple syrup and I am looking for a forecast to help me determine the best time for tapping. I am looking for weather trends that reflect lows below freezing and highs in the upper 30s, low 40s. Any resources you could share, would be appreciated.

[tpweather]

I am in search of a resource that could provide forecasted highs and lows out into the future as far as possible. Even if it reverts to averages. I have recently semi retired. I gave up snow plowing a few years ago. I needed a winter hobby. I have started making maple syrup and I am looking for a forecast to help me determine the best time for tapping. I am looking for weather trends that reflect lows below freezing and highs in the upper 30s, low 40s. Any resources you could share, would be appreciated.

I had an uncle who did this and he lived mainly in northern Ohio. My guess a better place because yes we get below 32 at night but the highs seem to be a little higher and more like in the upper 40's around here. Will watch this though and see if we can narrow a decent period where this may happen. Sounds like a mid-late February kind of deal but every year is different

[Bgoney]

36 here with a stiff SE breeze taking some juice out of the snow pack. Down to 5” inch depth for MBY. Feels great when not in the wind

[Bgoney]

Reminds me of one of CBs maps for our local area

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[tron777]

36 here with a stiff SE breeze taking some juice out of the snow pack. Down to 5” inch depth for MBY. Feels great when not in the wind

I'm losing good amount of it too. Hope the rainy GFS is wrong as it would likely take care of the rest.

[tron777]

CPC 8-14 day analogs have 2009 weighted twice. January of 2009 26-28th was a tremendous winter storm for the OV. I remember it well. It was a 2 parter with a 6-12 hour break in between the two waves of precipitation. Arctic air was in place and I got 6" out of the 1st round. The break came, temps warmed and round 2 was an ice storm with frz rain 1/4 to 1/2" fell in NKY with 1-2"+ of ice in central and SW KY which caused massive tree and power outages of historic proportion in the hardest hit areas. LEX, LOU, PAH all hit very hard! Then heavy snow 3-4"+ on the backside in the deformation zone. That would be interesting to see again (minus the ice of course)

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So let me kind of sum up in a broad brushed way how I think the next 2 weeks will go.

Tonight / Early tomorrow - Frz drzl, light snow - watch for black ice for a while, most mornings!!!

Tues - Light snow in the afternoon and evening. Dusting to isolated 1" possible. - High Low 20s.

Wed - Thurs - Very cold. Below zero possible if clouds clear and winds relax otherwise 0 to 5 above, highs in teens and 20s.

Fri warms into the U30s to near 40 then rain moves in Fri night and Sat. Amounts TBD Temps drop Sunday

Models diverge on storm #2. Do we get a winter storm or not? Other model possible periods Jan 22-25th (weak signal but maybe? Could be swing and miss to the south.) Much stronger signal showing up around the 28th for another Southern Low. Watch this one closely.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and nice outline of what may happen. I have no problem with some warmth later this week and then we reset the pattern and go for broke lol. I still believe we see a better shot at a second storm probably on MLK day. Exactly where this goes is still up in the air but just love that the GOM is still loaded and getting the difference in temps will help fuel another system. The first system does look like a rain to back end snow but those tend to not provide much in the way of snow for us locally

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

I hit 41 here! Shocked the heck out of me! Strong southerly flow and some sun trumped the snow pack that is for sure.