tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:10 am
Let's hope a recurve into Phase 6 is wrong. As long as it keeps moving and gets into 7 we're good. Definitely a lot of uncertainty in the longer term. We do look to have a +PNA, -EPO and -AO but the NAO remains positive so not sure how that will factor in going forward. As usual, we wait and see. One thing that we know of is that it is active and shots of cold air continue to dive in but the overall pattern is progressive thanks to the NAO being positive.
GFS as expected is already backing off the amplitude it had from yesterday going forward
After Christmas, the Ensembles are starting to show a nationwide torch so they are backing off of the longer term cold after Christmas. If this is right, we are cold pre Christmas, then warm up Christmas to New Years. Hope to see that change since I called for a cold early January period.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:10 am
Let's hope a recurve into Phase 6 is wrong. As long as it keeps moving and gets into 7 we're good. Definitely a lot of uncertainty in the longer term. We do look to have a +PNA, -EPO and -AO but the NAO remains positive so not sure how that will factor in going forward. As usual, we wait and see. One thing that we know of is that it is active and shots of cold air continue to dive in but the overall pattern is progressive thanks to the NAO being positive.
GFS as expected is already backing off the amplitude it had from yesterday going forward
After Christmas, the Ensembles are starting to show a nationwide torch so they are backing off of the longer term cold after Christmas. If this is right, we are cold pre Christmas, then warm up Christmas to New Years. Hope to see that change since I called for a cold early January period.
The ensembles have been bad in the medium and long range this entire month. They want to show sustained warm ups but they just aren't happening as of yet. The closer we get to the short term the models begin to catch on to the cold. This is the opposite of what we have been seeing on the winters lately. We see cold in the long term only to catch onto the warmth the closer we get to reality.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:10 am
Let's hope a recurve into Phase 6 is wrong. As long as it keeps moving and gets into 7 we're good. Definitely a lot of uncertainty in the longer term. We do look to have a +PNA, -EPO and -AO but the NAO remains positive so not sure how that will factor in going forward. As usual, we wait and see. One thing that we know of is that it is active and shots of cold air continue to dive in but the overall pattern is progressive thanks to the NAO being positive.
GFS as expected is already backing off the amplitude it had from yesterday going forward
After Christmas, the Ensembles are starting to show a nationwide torch so they are backing off of the longer term cold after Christmas. If this is right, we are cold pre Christmas, then warm up Christmas to New Years. Hope to see that change since I called for a cold early January period.
The ensembles have been bad in the medium and long range this entire month. They want to show sustained warm ups but they just aren't happening as of yet. The closer we get to the short term the models begin to catch on to the cold. This is the opposite of what we have been seeing on the winters lately. We see cold in the long term only to catch onto the warmth the closer we get to reality.
To your point Doug, so far, the Ensembles have been underdoing the PNA ridging. We'll see if that's still the case when we get closer.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:48 am
by Bgoney
Last 30 days of LaNina/ easterly’s getting their act together and slowing/stalling the MJO progression
IMG_2829.gif
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 10:06 am
by tron777
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 10:24 am
by tpweather
Yes the cold shot for late next week towards Christmas is something I did not see. I still thought the longer term cold would be towards the New Year and again we still have time for that forecast. The mjo though always something we watch over items so far in December has been the positive pna,the -AO for the most part and the NAO negative for part of the time. Still believe the cold and snow in much of Canada in November seems to a key as well and with the coldest of temps in much of the second half of November and so far in December on this side of the earth is helping. Sometime the cold will reload and maybe that is period right after Christmas but how long of a reloading process is key and then do we see the same pattern with the cold on this side of the planet. Next week will be above normal until we get to very late next week into the weekend. Still getting cold rather far south with these small outbreaks especially since snow cover is below normal for much of the northern states except around the lakes with all the lake effect snow the past few weeks.Hopefully in January when the cold comes back its digs a little further to the west towards the southern plains and if that happens then the chances of bigger storms are possible. Until then it may be clipper city with each cold spell
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 11:36 am
by tron777
Around the 19th, the 12Z GFS has rain to snow as we finally turn much colder. too bad the PNA ridge isn't quite in the right spot for that system as the snow is favored east of us as a result. But, we do get an arctic frontal passage with a band of snow on the 21st / 22nd with an upper low as well. That is the period of interest IMO and our best chance at seeing snow on the ground for Christmas. The 21-23rd window is one to watch.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 2:34 pm
by tpweather
Les the pattern later next week and towards Christmas is really a better snow chance for the east coast but its not horrible either. How long will the warmer pattern stay around after Christmas will be the next issue we have to look at and hopefully a quick turn around. Again the main PV has been located over eastern Canada for the past month or so though its not the full PV you see sometimes. We have been able to get some of that cold here and you can tell its been in eastern Canada because the cold has gone all the way to Florida which sometimes will not happen until January.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 2:38 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 13, 2024 2:34 pm
Les the pattern later next week and towards Christmas is really a better snow chance for the east coast but its not horrible either. How long will the warmer pattern stay around after Christmas will be the next issue we have to look at and hopefully a quick turn around. Again the main PV has been located over eastern Canada for the past month or so though its not the full PV you see sometimes. We have been able to get some of that cold here and you can tell its been in eastern Canada because the cold has gone all the way to Florida which sometimes will not happen until January.
I love the amplitude of the PNA ridge. The location of it is too far east which is why the Apps / East Coast could be in line for a bigger system. However, we are close enough to keep our eyes open too.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 2:44 pm
by tpweather
I agree Les and I love getting the warmer air in here next week as we usually need this to happen around here to get a decent shot of snow. Plus with the cold coming in mid-late week this will be fresh cold air and then hopefully getting systems to arrive in the newly cold air is very helpful. Looks like we have about a week of the cold and though I thought we would be cooler I was not expecting another true shot of polar air but gladly will take it in a heartbeat. Leaving for Wisconsin on the 26th and return the 30th. If we get that milder period back that hopefully will work out so I am not digging out of a blizzard. We can save that for after the New Year
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 5:02 pm
by tron777
37 CVG, I hit 38 here. One more cold night then we warm up and eventually get wet which lasts into early next week. Mid to late next week, we will be tracking a change to colder and / or wintry weather prospects between the end of next week and Christmas. We'll continue to track the changes in the data and look for trends.
Favorable Things Going on: Change to colder with plenty of arctic air.
Split flow in the jet stream with both branches active
Unfavorable Things going on: No -NAO
PNA ridge is amplified but a tad too far to the east. We could use it along the west Coast, not over the Rockies.
This is what we will want to be tracking in the next week for White Christmas chances across the OV. They are never high to begin with but we have a chance this year. Remember, snow does not have to be falling on Christmas itself (would be cool if it did lol I won't lie!) But we need 1" or more of snow on the ground at 7am on the 25th when it is measured at CVG for it to count. (Or your nearest reporting station valid to your hood)
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2024 6:29 pm
by tron777
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2024 1:17 am
by MVWxObserver
CVG got to 37, DAY 31 and CMH 32 on Fri.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2024 5:57 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and another cold start but should warm up nicely today. Rain enters the picture tonight and really periods of rain through Monday night. I believe 1-2 inches is a good call but as usual some folks maybe a tad less and a few tad more. Could we here thunder on Monday and sure but just a rumble or two and no severe weather. With the NAO positive systems are moving quickly and though both systems are decent they are moving right along. Then we get see a arctic front on Wednesday that should bring some light rain and turning colder later Wednesday and Thursday. Can we get snow with this system and its the old cold chasing precip so chances slim though a few flurries are possible. Then we are cold for several days and can we get at least a small system in here between the 21st-25th. A little early on that prediction but we will have some cold around and matter of fact if we get a storm it could be with warm air flowing over the cold at the surface which sometimes leads to an ice event but again nothing yet as its just to far out. We do warm either on Christmas Day or the next day for a warming trend that should last into the New Year. So all and all over the next 10 days the chances for snow is okay and we will have some cold to work with.
The New Year and what we can expect for the first month and just starting to look at this period and will have more thoughts later next week as we do have a chance to be a decent January if you like cold and snow but again where will the cold be located by then and will it remain on this side of the planet or decide to take a vacation and head over to Asia.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2024 6:33 am
by tron777
Good morning! Going to head to my Brother's here shortly and do a little saugeye fishing on Caesar's Creek lake. The bite has been hot! Glad the rain will hold off until after dark. Perfect for my plans. Tim has us covered nicely in his above post. Nothing much to add lol
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2024 7:12 am
by Bgoney
December pattern rolls on , progressive but repetitive results with cold warm cold…and neither air masses nothing we haven’t seen already this month. Plenty of uncertainty in the long range, some good some not so good. Still a winning December compared to what we’ve seen in many recent years
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2024 8:41 am
by Bgoney
Awesome sunrise earlier this morning
IMG_2833.jpeg
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2024 12:51 pm
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Dec 14, 2024 8:41 am
Awesome sunrise earlier this morning
What a great shot. I noticed it this morning as well. Looks like your trees are on fire
IMG_2833.jpeg
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2024 5:06 am
by airwolf76
looks like a shot of snow to move in later today. 1-3 inches before the turn over
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2024 6:22 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and the rain is starting to let up from west to east and most folks near the 1/2 inch mark. Next round late tonight and Monday and to me it looks like a good 1/2 to 1 inch for most folks. Sometimes rain totals are not easy because a system stalls or you have to much dry air involved. The current system and the one later does not have those problems so precip totals much easier to predict in a wider area. Will turn colder later Wednesday as another shot of rain and looks more like .25-.50 so a very nice 5 days rainfall total. The cold will come in slowly at first but get somewhat colder each day through the weekend. Could we see a clipper during this period and the answer is maybe but need to see where pieces of energy set up. Another system will try and get here near the 24th and 25th and the question is will it be snow or rain. Still 9 days away so a little early for exact timing and precip type but my thought has been a system that throws warm air over a cold surface and this can lead to a burst of snow at first switching to a mix before all rain. The problem the location of this is still up in the air. Since the NAO turned positive systems are moving quickly across the USA and this can be good and bad for any snow. The good is the cold late this week into the weekend hangs around into the following week and the precip from the next system is able to throw some moisture while we still have some cold air left. The bad is the system is moving fast but the warm air associated with the system moves in quickly as well. At this point I am leaning towards the warmer side as I expect the cold shot late this week to be a tad further east than recent cold spells. Then I believe we are mild through at the least New Years Day. January still looks cold and possibly snowy and February looks very mild so that part of the forecast has not changed but again the reloading of cold should start taking place and the reason for the milder period late this month but once its loaded where does it go if anywhere. To me this season the PV has been weak and that is why we have seen some cold outbreaks but these have been directed really from the Mississippi River east. The mjo signal is mixed and the forecasts for that has not been great and is that a temporary item or something we need to pay more attention too. Enough for the rant and hope everyone has a great Sunday
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2024 6:56 am
by Bgoney
Tim, love your rant and agree on the rest of December outlook, which will end up as a month of repetition. But not sold on a timetable of arctic air returning for the OV for the new year, because of uncertainty with MJO. Still think the amplitude from the GEFs for 6/7 is too high. The data from its own modeling doesn’t support that amplitude. Also don’t think it’s a coincidence that since the MJO has come to a crawl since late November, our December pattern has also, in a repetitive way. Historically also , an MJO traveling through the maritimes or 4/5 more often than not results in a +NAO. To sum it up , MJO remains for me , a huge factor for the OV
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2024 7:04 am
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 15, 2024 6:56 am
Tim, love your rant and agree on the rest of December outlook, which will end up as a month of repetition. But not sold on a timetable of arctic air returning for the OV for the new year, because of uncertainty with MJO. Still think the amplitude from the GEFs for 6/7 is too high. The data from its own modeling doesn’t support that amplitude. Also don’t think it’s a coincidence that since the MJO has come to a crawl since late November, our December pattern has also, in a repetitive way. Historically also , an MJO traveling through the maritimes or 4/5 more often than not results in a +NAO. To sum it up , MJO remains for me , a huge factor for the OV
Hey Bgoney we are on the same page and yes the mjo is the wild card. Timing of the cold returning is no doubt a wild card and really I did not see the cold for late this week and thought we would have a stretch of mild air from the 17-31st. So yes getting the cold shot is nice but could no doubt delay the cold returning in early January. Lack of snow in the USA is another factor and have been lucky getting with these cold shots because the break off of the PV has been located in eastern Canada and has allowed cold air to get into the eastern USA and rather far south.
We know its always puzzle and sometime like the current pattern its a 10 piece and rather easy but do we end up with a 1000 piece puzzle and then you need to find the edges and work towards the middle and that can take time.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2024 8:06 am
by Bgoney
GEFs is slowly catching on to a less amped up progression. Yikes , the EU is downright Ugly with its forecast
IMG_2843.jpeg
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2024 10:22 am
by tron777
Good morning all! 0.58" at CVG for rainfall as of 10am. Much more to come over the next few days. Then we get colder by Thurs and Fri of next week. Do we see any snow between 12/20 - 12/25 and then how long does the warmth return after Christmas? Those are the two bigger weather questions on everyone's mind.
As noted, the MJO forecast is changing and not for the better. Less models are getting us into phase 8. Most ate Phase 7 then it dies. Phase 7 isn't horrible but not as cold as 8 and we get the SE ridge with Phase 7 typically. Cold is nearby to our NW. Again, the pattern to me is active. Is it rain and mild or do we see some love? Stay tuned! A lot of uncertainty IMO is ahead.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2024 11:00 am
by tpweather
Wonderful post Les! The mjo forecast models have not been very reliable in recent weeks but are they correcting themselves at the moment. Heading into phase 6 but not a strong signal at all so that is why we are seeing some colder air later this week. The 5 days or so of colder air coming our way is something I did not expect and though I thought the cold that stays around awhile would be the New Year it may be delayed a few days. The mjo and you sometimes when everything is flowing nicely it takes around 45 days to make a complete loop. Starting our in phase 8 on Nov 5th then we would be back in that phase around the 20th of December. Well we no that is not happening as it took a little nap in phase 5 but is moving at the moment.
The PV has been weak much of this season and sort of displaced in the lower latitudes and one area has no doubt been in eastern Canada which has allowed us to have a below normal December in terms of temps which at the moment is about 5 degrees below the normal. Looking at temps in Siberia and the lowest is -48 at the moment and again I always look at -60 or lower to know there is probably a decent polar vortex on that side of the planet and that has really not happened. The lowest in Canada is -38 and yes eastern Alaska is having some of their coldest air masses of the season but its not locking in and this tells me something about the PV.
Seems over the past several year we have been in a La Nina or El Nino but so far this season it looks like Enso neutral and I say that because you need 3 months in a row of certain temps and we started out where it look like La Nina was going to happen but the waters warmed so it cut of the 3 straight months but the last few weeks once again getting colder but again you would need to have 3 months in a row to have an official La Nina or El Nino
I believe it has acted like a La Nina the past several days as rainfall in the Ohio Valley is very common on one reason I thought a wetter than normal winter but also expected a milder than normal overall.
Glad the rain will hold off until after dark. Perfect for my plans.