Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 8:15 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 4:28 am

I still do not see any significant rain chances until we get towards the end of the month. 0.15" is it for rainfall at CVG so another below avg month likely in the books by the time Halloween comes and goes.

Here’s the top ten pitiful list.

Wow.., that is awful! I see 2022 on that list. Other then the Blizzard around Christmas, that was the highlight of that winter for us. Total snowfall at CVG that season (22-23) was only 14.4" Ugh... noooo thanks, but unless we see changes in the pacific as we've been talking about in the early winter thoughts thread, an outcome like that will probably be our fate again.

Some local lows from this morning. On the drive in , it wasn’t nearly as frosty as yesterday was

I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

Red flag day for the plains and expanding drought with those gusty 40-50 mph SW desert winds and well above normal temperature's

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

I stand corrected. ILN has updated their county outline map as seen here:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

The program has ended for our extreme Eastern tier of counties. Basically East of Columbus and the Scioto Valley.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

I stand corrected. ILN has updated their county outline map as seen here:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

The program has ended for our extreme Eastern tier of counties. Basically East of Columbus and the Scioto Valley.

I don’t know Les , looks like you had it right for most of the region, those upper 20 temps were rare and only in the usual colder spots east. Low to mid 30s were the rule

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

I stand corrected. ILN has updated their county outline map as seen here:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

The program has ended for our extreme Eastern tier of counties. Basically East of Columbus and the Scioto Valley.

I don’t know Les , looks like you had it right for most of the region, those upper 20 temps were rare and only in the usual colder spots east. Low to mid 30s were the rule

Yes another frost this morning but not quite what I saw Wednesday morning. Yes the temps played out like we thought and like always a few upper 20's but not one you see that last more than an hour at best. Usually need 3 hours or so at 29 and below to really get a nice freeze. Yes the growing season has slowed up and even without a frost the season is winding down as usual. Leaves of course will be really turn colors with the clear sky and colder temps and peak should be sometime later next week. Heading to Wisconsin in a week and the peak is already there so will be interesting to see how the leftover colors look up there. Hope to see a day late next week of a few flurries up there before I leave.

Fun to watch over the next week and see how Alaska will be getting into some big time snows. This is good and love to see the build up but the one downside is if they continue to get snow into early December sometimes cold air will remain in a friendly area and that usually includes bit time snow build up. Will worry about that in 6 weeks but I love seeing the watches and warnings starting to be posted and this could be a 5-7day kind of storminess.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

I stand corrected. ILN has updated their county outline map as seen here:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

The program has ended for our extreme Eastern tier of counties. Basically East of Columbus and the Scioto Valley.

I don’t know Les , looks like you had it right for most of the region, those upper 20 temps were rare and only in the usual colder spots east. Low to mid 30s were the rule

Thanks, but the map shows that they cancelled the program in these counties anyway despite what I said. It was a small area though to your point.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

My Dad and I took our Geraniums and Mums back outside today as the low on Fri morning is progged for around 35 or 36 up this way.

Its been confirmed that the IDF have taken out the top leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar! Good riddance!

Currently 55 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 60.

Today's 12Z GFS still looks promising with regards to some rain later this month. Not much else to talk about in the short and medium range.

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 degrees may result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.


This should be the last one for a while at least for the Cincy area.

Drought update from the CPC - The link below is for the Midwest. Still pretty ugly as expected.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... px?Midwest

12Z Euro only has 0.03" at CVG for rain over the next 10 days so you may as well say it's dry. I know Bgoney has been mentioning the Euro AI from time to time as it has been doing better so I looked at it and it looked similar to the GFS for the last week of the month. If those two models are correct, we get a bit of light rain with a front around the 25th or so, it stalls then one low, possibly two ride up along that front to produce some decent rains as the month winds down. We shall see of course being this far out, but over the next week or so, I am going with a dry forecast subject to change around the 25th.

I hit 62 today, CVG got to at least 60. 5pm climate report isn't out yet so I'll go with that for now.

Both CVG / CMH reached 61 and DAY 62 today.