Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Sun Aug 18, 2024 11:14 am**

In and around cvgland most areas over the last 3 days have had .50”-1.50” range (some isolated spots to our southeast around 2”). Cbusland unfortunately continues to be in the worst shape with qpf amounts in the .20”-.60” range

IMG_2082.jpeg

Posted: **Sun Aug 18, 2024 11:42 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Aug 18, 2024 11:14 am In and around cvgland most areas over the last 3 days have had .50”-1.50” range (some isolated spots to our southeast around 2”). Cbusland unfortunately continues to be in the worst shape with qpf amounts in the .20”-.60” range

IMG_2082.jpeg

Great Post Bgoney, this does show what I thought may happen for the period 8/15-8/18. Some folks would get hit and some not so much. I know Indy,CVG and Lex have all got over an inch of rain but Day,Lou,and Columbus not so much. That is why I was hoping Columbus would get into some rainfall later today before everything moves away.

Posted: **Sun Aug 18, 2024 11:47 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Aug 18, 2024 11:42 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Aug 18, 2024 11:14 am In and around cvgland most areas over the last 3 days have had .50”-1.50” range (some isolated spots to our southeast around 2”). Cbusland unfortunately continues to be in the worst shape with qpf amounts in the .20”-.60” range

IMG_2082.jpeg
Great Post Bgoney, this does show what I thought may happen for the period 8/15-8/18. Some folks would get hit and some not so much. I know Indy,CVG and Lex have all got over an inch of rain but Day,Lou,and Columbus not so much. That is why I was hoping Columbus would get into some rainfall later today before everything moves away.

I'm really glad to see not only us cash in Tim, but our SE counties too. They really needed it. The I-70 Crew are now the ones who need the rain. Come on JP work your magic!

Although by the time this next dry streak is over with, we will all be needing a drink once again.

Posted: **Sun Aug 18, 2024 11:49 am**

I am seeing a touch of sunshine here. CAPE values are now up to 1500 J/kg. My temp is up to 78 degrees. Per the 12Z ILN sounding, the convective temp for today is 75. Seeing a few widely scattered showers getting into the Metro now. Everything today will be hit or miss and these will be quick downpours now lasting very long at all.

Posted: **Sun Aug 18, 2024 1:13 pm**

Posted: **Sun Aug 18, 2024 2:49 pm**

Not a drop of rain here as of yet today. If that continues, I should be able to mow after work tomorrow for the first time in over 2 weeks. With the look of the extended forecast, I won't mow again for another 2-3 weeks.

Posted: **Sun Aug 18, 2024 4:42 pm**

I finally got a down pour here. Not much as expected but we'll take it! Every drop counts.

Posted: **Sun Aug 18, 2024 5:08 pm**

CVG reached 83, DAY 78 and CMH 85 today.

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:36 am**

Good morning all! Still a tad sticky out there but that will soon be going away. September like air really begins tomorrow and lasts thru Thursday before the heat returns by Friday and esp by this weekend and going into next week. Highs in the U70s to perhaps 80 today, will give way to the mid and upper 70s for Tues and Wed. Low 80s Thurs, the U80s Fri then 90+ by this weekend as well as into early next week. Lows in the U40s to lower 50s the next couple of nights, the 50s for everyone Thurs morning then the 60s thereafter. Next chance of rain looks to hold off until sometime next week. We can narrow the timing down once we get closer. The GFS has a weak front trying to come in on Monday of next week while the Euro is virtually dry out to Day 10. Bottom line... it's gonna be a while!

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 6:40 am**

I had a touch of light rain on the way into work this morning. It was like a heavy drizzle or something.

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 7:07 am**

Good Morning Les and yes the heavy drizzle is what you get when the atmosphere is ringing out its remaining moisture. My little side project the past four days was to average 6 cities in the Ohio Valley and was hoping to see an average between 1-2 inches of rain. Just a tad short as the final total ended up with 0.95 as an average. Louisville the lowest at 0.20 but Lexington close by was the highest with 1.51. It was a tricky forecast in terms of rainfall but it did show how the range can be wide in a short area. Model wise and give to the gfs and the euro finally got on late Wednesday and Thursday as it added rain for the weekend. The Euro as we know not as good in the summer and it has problems many times when a tropical system is somewhere nearby. The Hurricane slowed things down enough to give us the extra rain over the weekend. Yesterday I got 0.04 but my brother and sister-n-law who live in Wilder go 0.68. Just shows you the wide spread with showers and thundershowers.

Les your forecast looks good and I agree with the big news this week a taste of early-mid-September but the overall news for the next couple of weeks will be lack of rain and temps rising.

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 7:21 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 19, 2024 7:07 am Good Morning Les and yes the heavy drizzle is what you get when the atmosphere is ringing out its remaining moisture. My little side project the past four days was to average 6 cities in the Ohio Valley and was hoping to see an average between 1-2 inches of rain. Just a tad short as the final total ended up with 0.95 as an average. Louisville the lowest at 0.20 but Lexington close by was the highest with 1.51. It was a tricky forecast in terms of rainfall but it did show how the range can be wide in a short area. Model wise and give to the gfs and the euro finally got on late Wednesday and Thursday as it added rain for the weekend. The Euro as we know not as good in the summer and it has problems many times when a tropical system is somewhere nearby. The Hurricane slowed things down enough to give us the extra rain over the weekend. Yesterday I got 0.04 but my brother and sister-n-law who live in Wilder go 0.68. Just shows you the wide spread with showers and thundershowers.

Les your forecast looks good and I agree with the big news this week a taste of early-mid-September but the overall news for the next couple of weeks will be lack of rain and temps rising.

Thanks Tim and I agree with you with regards to the heat making a come back. I do believe that it is short lived as another trough comes in around Labor Day as we start September. CVG and myself picked up an additional 0.03" yesterday.

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 8:12 am**

Some areas in Connecticut had 8-12” qpf in less than 12 hours from slow moving, training T-storms

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 9:43 am**

Dews have dropped slowly as the wind is now from the north. As of 9am, the dew is down to 64 at CVG. The humidity should continue to slowly drop today and into tonight.

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 10:03 am**

Rain total at Indian hill was only .25” since Friday

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 10:55 am**

Dews are down to 60 now at CVG.... It's going to be wonderful afternoon folks!

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 2:34 pm**

Upper 50s as of 2pm for dews at CVG. It's going to be a nice week even though we could certainly use more rain in many areas. Hopefully the heat won't last too long that starts by Friday / this weekend. We shall know more on the longer term by the end of this week.

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 2:48 pm**

Good Afternoon and the pleasant weather has arrived and should last at least through Thursday before we start heating back up and yes bringing in the humidity. Could we be dry for the remainder of August and its possible and again we are in the dry season which lasts through mid-Oct so this is not unusual by any means. Would love to see more rain as most folks would but this time of year the tropics or a very strong cold front is how we get lucky. The mid-summer afternoon thundershowers are just not as common this late in the summer and sure a pop up one can still happen but they are not as likely than say a month ago. Does this mean a dry fall and have no ideal and its just too early to figure that out.For the year we are about 2 inches below normal at CVG. Some areas will be drier and others wetter so less than 10p/c off the norm at Cvg is not bad at all.

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 7:40 pm**

CVG got to 80, DAY 76 and CMH 75 today.

Posted: **Mon Aug 19, 2024 8:27 pm**

Good Evening and so nice with the lower temps and humidity. This week the forecast is very simple and we can't say that often here in the Ohio Valley. Lets look further out and beyond early next week. At the moment no tropical systems forecast in the Atlantic or GOM area. That is sort of a surprise and going to give it a few days at least before I believe that is correct. If this is correct then you can get a cold front from southern Canada and the northern plains to make a push towards us. Really two ways in later August and early September to bring down a decent shot of cool air and one being tropical systems getting rather far north like we have seen the last couple of weeks that has given us breaks in the heat. The other way is tropical systems are nowhere near the mainland USA and you can get cold front to push into the Ohio Valley.

So this will be the items I will look at later this week but will enjoy the nice weather this week. Of course if we stay dry for a period of time the heat will return but sometimes with a dryer period the humidity does not back in full force

Posted: **Tue Aug 20, 2024 4:36 am**

Good morning all! Mid 50s to lower 60s across the area this morning. I currently have 57 IMBY. Dews are currently refreshing in the 50s and will stay under control until sometime on Friday and over the weekend when the heat returns. Until then, enjoy it! Our next significant chance of rain may not be until the second half of next week the way it looks right now. I think we have a chance to get 3 or 4 more 90 degree days on the season upcoming. As usual, we shall see!

I also believe tropical activity will begin to occur again either late this month or in early Sept as we are just under 4 weeks away from the peak of the hurricane season. So you would expect activity to be ramping up shortly. Ensemble guidance overnight shows ridging retrograding back to the West late this month and into early Sept. Eventually, the ridge is overtop of us in Canada which would make it a prime pattern for something tropical to sneak into the Gulf and impact the CONUS sometime after Labor Day. Something to watch down the road in the next couple of weeks.

Posted: **Tue Aug 20, 2024 8:04 am**

Looks like CVG officially dropped to 58 this morning. ILN has me in the upper 40s night! I'll believe it when I see it.

I love the wording too.

Tonight: Mostly clear. unseasonably cold with lows in the upper 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Posted: **Tue Aug 20, 2024 10:04 am**

Posted: **Tue Aug 20, 2024 10:32 am**

65 at CVG with a dew of 51. Quite a few C of C days coming before the heat returns.

Posted: **Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:05 am**

Nice video by Brian. Les he mentioned what you have said about the pattern always returning to what we have seen the past month and that is shots of cooler air from the northern plains. If that is the case then rain chances are not great. Going to see how the tropics play out and we know they can slow the pattern down. He does mentioned the heat returning and I agree but how hot and the main question is how humid. Many times once you hit later August and September you can no doubt get 90's but many times its where the dew points stay in the low and maybe mid 60's. So yes but not quite the stiffening heat you sometimes get in summer. Best time to really get the heat and humidity this time of year is a day or two ahead of a cold front or the tropics get very active and some strong ridging can form over us. At the moment only the fronts show that chance.

Absolute Vorticity

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