Absolute Vorticity

Tim... you called it last week. Nice job!

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values around 100 degree expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses.

CVG has been 89'ed as of 1pm so no doubt at the 2pm reading, we should be able to tack on another 90 on the season. No changes to the current forecast. The highest chance for storms currently looks to be Tues night into Wed morning but still, we cannot rule out storm chances on a more isolated scale before then.

Got a phone call from a friend in our neighborhood saying that the storms that came through yesterday damaged some of the new furniture fixtures at our village community bocce ball court. A sun umbrella pole was twisted and bent and a chair that was bolted to an umbrella table was wrenched away by the winds.

Currently 82 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 88.

Lone cell over Greenville.

90 as of 2pm at CVG. Contest thread has been updated. 15 days at or above 90 which matches last year's total for 2023. We might add one more tomorrow but it'll depend on clouds and convective evolution. Then we look to get a nice break from those 90s! Yes please!

Good Afternoon and a nice toasty day and when the sun comes out for just a few minutes you can no doubt feel the heat. What about rain chances and over say the next 48-60 hours several chances but that does not mean everyone gets rain with each chance. Models rather poor on these complexes of storms the last several days so its almost better to see where they develop and then get a better ideal if your area is going to get hit. Later today and this evening the energy of jet stream is stronger to the north and we do see some development over Minnesota. That should form into a nice complex and move east and slightly southeast. Locally here and south we can still get a storm or two just because of the left over boundary but this would be more in the line of a heavy shower compared to the north of hear where some decent winds can come into play.

When is the best shot of storms for us and I believe Tuesday night but once again these complexes can ramp up in a different area and you end up looking bad because of a model that has missed it completely. Once again now cast is key and hopefully they form and then we can get a better time period and location.

No doubt we can still use some rain and hopefully over the next 60 hours most folks can add another inch or two. Like usual some folks may see less and if you get into a training area of storms the amounts can add up quickly as this is tropical moisture.

Nice break starting Thursday for probably 4 days before more rain chances next week. This will help in keeping any long term heat out but sure you can get a day or two where it gets quite toasty with temp and humidity together. We are nearing the peak of heat locally and really not looking to bad .

Nice post Tim and we are in good agreement with the short and medium range. I think that boundary that slips to our south by Thurs, comes back north as a warm front next week so if correct, that would offer us up more rain chances sometime next week. This would be great news to get us out of the short term drought!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 15, 2024 2:10 pm Good Afternoon and a nice toasty day and when the sun comes out for just a few minutes you can no doubt feel the heat. What about rain chances and over say the next 48-60 hours several chances but that does not mean everyone gets rain with each chance. Models rather poor on these complexes of storms the last several days so its almost better to see where they develop and then get a better ideal if your area is going to get hit. Later today and this evening the energy of jet stream is stronger to the north and we do see some development over Minnesota. That should form into a nice complex and move east and slightly southeast. Locally here and south we can still get a storm or two just because of the left over boundary but this would be more in the line of a heavy shower compared to the north of hear where some decent winds can come into play.

When is the best shot of storms for us and I believe Tuesday night but once again these complexes can ramp up in a different area and you end up looking bad because of a model that has missed it completely. Once again now cast is key and hopefully they form and then we can get a better time period and location.

No doubt we can still use some rain and hopefully over the next 60 hours most folks can add another inch or two. Like usual some folks may see less and if you get into a training area of storms the amounts can add up quickly as this is tropical moisture.

Nice break starting Thursday for probably 4 days before more rain chances next week. This will help in keeping any long term heat out but sure you can get a day or two where it gets quite toasty with temp and humidity together. We are nearing the peak of heat locally and really not looking to bad .

Happy birthday Tim,
I'm loving these complexes when they form NW of us and then move in our direction. I'm seeing some buildup of cumulus clouds to our north where scattered storms are developing in northern Butler Co.

Congratulations OH Sen. JD Vance as Pres Trump's VP pick!

Back to wx!

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Radar's getting a little frisky S of I-70 and N of Cincinnati. ?Everything scattered but a few of you will see some strong winds and heavy rain. We have a t-storm warning out too.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PREBLE AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 421 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near West
Alexandria, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Trotwood, Eaton, Camden, West Alexandria, Gratis, Germantown, New
Lebanon, Farmersville, Oklahoma, Wheatville, Muttonville, Sugar
Valley, and Lake Lakengren.

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely

Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely

Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

CVG reached 92, DAY 89'ed and CMH 94 today.

1922 UNK 2 ENE Jacksonburg Butler OH 3954 8447 one tree down on Elk Creek Rd - time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1928 UNK Middletown Butler OH 3951 8440 tree branches down on wires. (ILN)

1930 100 Middletown Butler OH 3951 8440 time estimated. (ILN)

1951 150 Xenia Greene OH 3969 8393 via broadcast media. (ILN)

1959 UNK 1 NNE Wilberforce Greene OH 3973 8388 trees down on Wilberforce-Clifton Rd and also Jones Rd - time estimated by radar. (ILN)

2020 100 Choctaw Lake Madison OH 3996 8349 (ILN)

2055 100 3 NW Lockbourne Franklin OH 3984 8302 time estimated. (ILN)

2055 UNK Grove City Franklin OH 3987 8307 numerous trees down - time estimated. (ILN)

2103 UNK 1 W Grove City Franklin OH 3987 8309 small to medium tree branches down. (ILN)

2108 100 2 N Downtown Columbus Franklin OH 3998 8300 (ILN)

2111 100 2 S Westerville Franklin OH 4009 8292 Penny to quarter size hail. (ILN)

2115 100 1 NE Grandview Heights Franklin OH 3999 8303 Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.). (ILN)

2120 UNK 1 ESE Canal Winchester Fairfield OH 3984 8280 numerous trees down - time estimated from radar. (ILN)

2139 100 2 S Arlington Rush IN 3959 8557 (IND)

2147 UNK 2 NNW West Rushville Fairfield OH 3979 8246 large tree down - time estimated by radar. (ILN)

2149 UNK 2 SE Harbor Hills Licking OH 3992 8241 numerous trees down near Thornport - time estimated from radar. (ILN)

2150 UNK Thornville Perry OH 3990 8242 County 911 received three reports of trees down in Thornville. (RLX)

2152 UNK 4 N Rushville Fairfield OH 3982 8243 trees down across SR664 - time estimated by radar. (ILN)

2155 UNK Somerset Perry OH 3981 8230 County 911 received five reports of trees down in Somerset. (RLX)

2208 UNK East Fultonham Muskingum OH 3985 8212 Tree down on Hoover Ave. (PBZ)

2210 UNK New Lexington Perry OH 3972 8220 County 911 received two reports of trees down in New Lexington. (RLX)

2210 UNK 2 WNW Crooksville Perry OH 3978 8213 Power company reports power outage due to tree damage west of Crooksville. (RLX)

2214 UNK 3 SW Licking View Muskingum OH 3993 8207 Tree down on Kopchak Road. (PBZ)

2218 UNK 1 SSW Zanesville Muskingum OH 3995 8202 Tree down on Fulton Street. (PBZ)

2219 UNK 1 ENE Zanesville Muskingum OH 3996 8199 Tree into power lines on Lewis Road. (PBZ)

2222 100 2 W Beanblossom Brown IN 3932 8630 (IND)

2222 UNK Bridgeville Muskingum OH 3997 8186 Trees and power lines down along East Pike. (PBZ)

2242 UNK New Concord Muskingum OH 4000 8174 Tree down on Harper Ave. (PBZ)

2245 100 1 N Beanblossom Brown IN 3933 8626 Time estimated. (IND)

2246 100 Nashville Brown IN 3921 8623 (IND)

2246 100 2 WSW Greensburg Decatur IN 3933 8552 (IND)

2247 UNK Cambridge Guernsey OH 4002 8159 Multiple trees and wires down in and throughout Cambridge. (PBZ)

2353 UNK 1 E Vallonia Belmont OH 3996 8082 Tree down on Wegee Road. (PBZ)

2357 UNK 1 NW Wegee Belmont OH 3997 8078 Tree down on Webb Heights Road. (PBZ)

0256 UNK Cedar Lake Lake IN 4138 8745 *** 1 FATAL *** Lake County EM reports tree fell on residence near Cedar Lake. One occupant killed. Time estimated by radar. (LOT)

0518 UNK 1 WNW Auburn De Kalb IN 4137 8508 *** 1 INJ *** State Police reported a semi-truck driver with injury when tree fell onto the cab of the truck near Auburn in De Kalb County. (IWX)

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Good morning all! The boys have issued a flood watch for our area from noon today until 7 pm tomorrow evening. We'll see how it goes. The incoming MCS has weakened on the front end but the tail end is still going strong over sw IND and s ILL

Rainfall amounts from some of the models at CVG: (Ending Wed evening)

6Z NAM - 1.14"
0Z GFS - 1.44"
0Z Euro - 1.61"
6Z HRRR - 2.23"
3Z RAP - 1.88"
3Z SREF - 1.39"

Wow , what a dream for Indiana and Illinois. Will we ever see that in cvgland?