Absolute Vorticity

Thanks for the model images! Man... it is so freaking boarder line and I guess it's one of those situations where you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. (Love that Hammer and Anvil cake from QC Fireworks by the way ) Anyway... I can't blame you for issuing the 1 out of 5 threat level on your FB Page just as a good CYA if nothing else.

Good Morning and what a beautiful day on Sunday. Can we have that weather 5 days a week with 2 chances of rain at night lol. Les your forecast looks really good an I am in your camp on the severe side. Not a widespread threat but again a low coming through the Ohio Valley this time of year yes we can have some severe but more isolated. I like the info Trev put out there and and some of the cells can get strong but just not the same amount as we saw last week. Slow moving so heavy rain could be a greater concern especially if you some areas getting hit hard with each round.

The one item I will watch is the gulf coast and if the severe weather is west to east and rather strong this can sometimes keep some of the GOM moisture further south but and always a but in weather the 2 systems may be far enough apart this is not a major concern.

Of course another system late in the week and like Les mentioned maybe we can get this out of here so we have a decent weekend. Looks like late in the week or next week a really nice shot of cool air coming into the northern plains which has not been that common this spring and you see Alaska getting some mild air as winter has no doubt lasted well into may in the northern part of the state and Barrow may finally get above 32 late this week or next week.

Will watch the longer term models and see any trends and so far one that has shown up is a good amount of moisture in the GOM an Atlantic which could lead to an early start to the Hurricane season. Again we are only in mid-May and still to hard to decide which way the summer may go for us but at the moment leaning towards the hot part of summer happening later and if we continue to get decent shots of rainfall over the next month I can see where the heat is delayed.

Good morning Tim and your post is great! We are in agreement on everything that you said in the post. I've seen a few seasonal models concerning the summer and they suggest an early start to the hurricane season in July / August and show above normal rainfall for us this summer as a result. The above avg rainfall runs from the MDR (Main Development Region) in the Atlantic, thru the Caribbean, Gulf and then northward into the SE US and Ohio Valley. If correct, and of course this is a big if that would imply a storm track favorable to bring the left over tropical systems our way with regards to rainfall. Bad news for the Northern Gulf Coast states of course if this is correct. It would be good news though for us to keep the big time heat at bay. If the tropical storm track being shown on some of the seasonal guidance is incorrect, say the storm track stays further south or something like that and they go into Texas or Mexico instead, (sneaking under the Bermuda High), then that would imply hot weather this summer for us. As you know, the tropics are always a wild card with regards to seasonal forecasting in the summer and autumn months. It's just part of the weather game that we play lol

Concerning the short term, no big heat whatsoever coming our way anytime soon due to the reasons you and I have mentioned not only with this post, but past posts too. I still believe that any 90 degree temps will be held off until June.

Just digging in a little more concerning rainfall totals. I have 1-2 inches for the week and will probably leave it at that range but leaning towards the lower end. Tuesday is interesting and though some folks will get some heavier downpours I believe it may not be widespread for the heavier rains. The one way to get the higher totals is both systems to be on the slower side and the one mid-week may work out this way which would no doubt help in the higher totals. So far at CVG for the month of May we are just over 4 inches so we are in great shape and notice some ponds yesterday and they are rather full which is good to see this time of year.

Les love your post especially regarding the tropics. The one sentence I loved was concerning the storm track further south into Texas or Mexico and if that happens we tend to get some strong ridging in this part of the world and that would bring on some decent heat.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2024 9:01 am Just digging in a little more concerning rainfall totals. I have 1-2 inches for the week and will probably leave it at that range but leaning towards the lower end. Tuesday is interesting and though some folks will get some heavier downpours I believe it may not be widespread for the heavier rains. The one way to get the higher totals is both systems to be on the slower side and the one mid-week may work out this way which would no doubt help in the higher totals. So far at CVG for the month of May we are just over 4 inches so we are in great shape and notice some ponds yesterday and they are rather full which is good to see this time of year.

Les love your post especially regarding the tropics. The one sentence I loved was concerning the storm track further south into Texas or Mexico and if that happens we tend to get some strong ridging in this part of the world and that would bring on some decent heat.

I think an inch is a good avg for upcoming rainfall. You know how it goes with convective precip. It tends to be more localized so some folks may only get a half inch as an example, and other folks could get 2"+. Kind of like how it goes with snowfall in the winter sometimes. We give a range in the hopes of covering as many locations as we can. Then we hope for the best!

Anyway... we are in excellent agreement for the most part here concerning the shorter and longer term forecast. You know how it is... we are either going to come out looking good or have egg in our faces. We've seen both results play out. So here goes nothing!

I checked the sounding from the 12Z HRRR and for CVG, it does show a marginally severe set up after 4pm Tuesday. The 12Z NAM is a bit slower showing basically the same thing after 6pm Tuesday. It is border line though as I've stated before. I don't think Trev is wrong at all for issuing a marginal severe outlook for tomorrow afternoon and evening (1 out of 5 on his scale) nor do I think it is wrong to dismiss the severe set up entirely. Both ideas have merit IMO after reviewing the latest data. It truly is a very close call to be completely honest.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2024 10:18 am I checked the sounding from the 12Z HRRR and for CVG, it does show a marginally severe set up after 4pm Tuesday. The 12Z NAM is a bit slower showing basically the same thing after 6pm Tuesday. It is border line though as I've stated before. I don't think Trev is wrong at all for issuing a marginal severe outlook for tomorrow afternoon and evening (1 out of 5 on his scale) nor do I think it is wrong to dismiss the severe set up entirely. Both ideas have merit IMO after reviewing the latest data. It truly is a very close call to be completely honest.

Agreed it is a very low risk on my scale which I think is justified by data. Like you said though parameters are not overly impressive, but a couple cells may pulse to severe limits for mainly wind gusts. Cannot rule out an isolated weak spin-up as well given the proximity to the LP.

Heavy downpours will be the bigger story tomorrow. Some of those will be tropical-style.

A tad more muggy this morning and just got done playing the old folks game of Pickle Ball. Only the second time but its a nice workout for the old man. Back to the weather and Trev the short term models are trending more towards your forecast on severe weather and we are within 18 hours or so and the models tend to catch onto the smaller items so that is a great call by you. Again not a widespread event and don't believe the storms will get anywhere close to last week but only takes one storm to cause problems.

Trev / Tim...

This is absolutely nothing like last week. It's not even in the same ballpark. It is razor thin close with regards to getting a severe storm and I like the idea that heavy rain is really the bigger issue. I could not agree more with that statement. If we get a severe storm, my hats totally off to you Trev and you deserve full credit of course! We don't always have to agree, Most of the time we do, it's very rare when we don't. Love the honest and respectful discussions that we have on here. I love our forum! I always have, and I always will.

Good Afternoon and not a bad day as we see some higher clouds move in. Some showers and thundershowers building quickly over northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. Nothing severe but again single cells that seem to be producing some heavy rain at this time.

Since talking about rain and the extended over at least the next 10 days continues to show a stormy pattern really for the eastern half of the country. Again some folks will get hit hard and others not as much but the overall theme is many places getting rainfall and that is not only good of keeping any heat wave from developing but also helps in terms of drought conditions. Complete opposite of last year where we were getting rather day rather fast and stayed that way until the fall season. Last year saw cool and wet in the west and this season wet in the east but rather mild.

Will watch those cells to the northwest but not expecting any severe weather though a strong one can form with heavy rain and some gusty winds. The bigger show is in the southern plains and will watch that area because they have much better conditions in terms of severe weather happening today and moving eastward along the golf coast the next few days. Want heat go to southern Florida where hot and humid conditions are happening.

Nice post Tim, as usual. I don't have much to add honestly as you have it all covered nicely in your post. One thing that I have noticed is for modeling to delay the onset of precip. It does not look to be very wet tonight. Question for tomorrow is... do we see rain / clouds in the morning or does everything hold off until the afternoon? If you want severe wx, you'd like to see the action hold off, otherwise, clouds and AM rain would certainly reduce the severe threat and that has been my stance all along. Again, we know the conditions are borderline for seeing severe wx to begin with.

Good morning folks! A few scattered showers are around this morning but the best action will be this afternoon and evening as we've discussed. We will see more action overnight as well as on Wed. Some folks could pick up 1-2" of rain during this time frame. Others may only see a half inch. A few spots could see more then 2". You know how it goes with t-storms. Could we see a strong to perhaps even a severe storm this afternoon / evening? IMO it will depend on what happens today as far as clouds and / or showers go. We will keep an eye on the SPC meso page just in case. Trev has been all over this so we'll see how it goes. The threat is low as he has mentioned.

For Thurs, I have been going with a dry day as we are in between systems. ILN has a small chance in the afternoon so we'll see on that one. Next system is certainly due in by Friday, esp in the afternoon and evening with more rain and t-storms. This could linger into Sat now unfortunately. Sunday looks to be dry at this time. As we kick off next week, Monday looks good.

For temps... Low 70s today and Wed, upper 70s by Thurs - Sat then 80ish for Sunday on into next week. Fairly seasonal for May as Tim and I have previously discussed.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 4:38 am Good morning folks! A few scattered showers are around this morning but the best action will be this afternoon and evening as we've discussed. We will see more action overnight as well as on Wed. Some folks could pick up 1-2" of rain during this time frame. Others may only see a half inch. A few spots could see more then 2". You know how it goes with t-storms. Could we see a strong to perhaps even a severe storm this afternoon / evening? IMO it will depend on what happens today as far as clouds and / or showers go. We will keep an eye on the SPC meso page just in case. Trev has been all over this so we'll see how it goes. The threat is low as he has mentioned.

For Thurs, I have been going with a dry day as we are in between systems. ILN has a small chance in the afternoon so we'll see on that one. Next system is certainly due in by Friday, esp in the afternoon and evening with more rain and t-storms. This could linger into Sat now unfortunately. Sunday looks to be dry at this time. As we kick off next week, Monday looks good.

For temps... Low 70s today and Wed, upper 70s by Thurs - Sat then 80ish for Sunday on into next week. Fairly seasonal for May as Tim and I have previously discussed.

SPC added a 1/5 for Cincinnati and points south today so they are now in agreement with my forecast. My 1/5 risk area goes a little further north than theirs, though.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 4:45 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 4:38 am Good morning folks! A few scattered showers are around this morning but the best action will be this afternoon and evening as we've discussed. We will see more action overnight as well as on Wed. Some folks could pick up 1-2" of rain during this time frame. Others may only see a half inch. A few spots could see more then 2". You know how it goes with t-storms. Could we see a strong to perhaps even a severe storm this afternoon / evening? IMO it will depend on what happens today as far as clouds and / or showers go. We will keep an eye on the SPC meso page just in case. Trev has been all over this so we'll see how it goes. The threat is low as he has mentioned.

For Thurs, I have been going with a dry day as we are in between systems. ILN has a small chance in the afternoon so we'll see on that one. Next system is certainly due in by Friday, esp in the afternoon and evening with more rain and t-storms. This could linger into Sat now unfortunately. Sunday looks to be dry at this time. As we kick off next week, Monday looks good.

For temps... Low 70s today and Wed, upper 70s by Thurs - Sat then 80ish for Sunday on into next week. Fairly seasonal for May as Tim and I have previously discussed.

SPC added a 1/5 for Cincinnati and points south today so they are now in agreement with my forecast. My 1/5 risk area goes a little further north than theirs, though.

Yeah.,.. it looks like they came around to your thinking. Nice job man! I had to have the wipers on intermittent on the drive into work this morning the entire way so some very light rain is already falling. We'll have to see how much CAPE we can get for this afternoon. That has been the issue for me the entire time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 5:38 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 4:45 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 4:38 am Good morning folks! A few scattered showers are around this morning but the best action will be this afternoon and evening as we've discussed. We will see more action overnight as well as on Wed. Some folks could pick up 1-2" of rain during this time frame. Others may only see a half inch. A few spots could see more then 2". You know how it goes with t-storms. Could we see a strong to perhaps even a severe storm this afternoon / evening? IMO it will depend on what happens today as far as clouds and / or showers go. We will keep an eye on the SPC meso page just in case. Trev has been all over this so we'll see how it goes. The threat is low as he has mentioned.

For Thurs, I have been going with a dry day as we are in between systems. ILN has a small chance in the afternoon so we'll see on that one. Next system is certainly due in by Friday, esp in the afternoon and evening with more rain and t-storms. This could linger into Sat now unfortunately. Sunday looks to be dry at this time. As we kick off next week, Monday looks good.

For temps... Low 70s today and Wed, upper 70s by Thurs - Sat then 80ish for Sunday on into next week. Fairly seasonal for May as Tim and I have previously discussed.

SPC added a 1/5 for Cincinnati and points south today so they are now in agreement with my forecast. My 1/5 risk area goes a little further north than theirs, though.

Yeah.,.. it looks like they came around to your thinking. Nice job man! I had to have the wipers on intermittent on the drive into work this morning the entire way so some very light rain is already falling. We'll have to see how much CAPE we can get for this afternoon. That has been the issue for me the entire time.

Yeah man the setup isn’t all that great hence the 1/5. Could see a couple cells pulse to severe limits. Also gotta watch for a brief spin-up, especially if we get closer to 1000j/kg. But other than a couple gusts to 60 and maybe some hail I’m not expecting much. As we’ve said the heavy rainfall with be the bigger story.

You can see the heavier stuff now on radar over Western KY that should eventually push up our way for this afternoon and evening. Hope it holds off until after the drive home, but I doubt it knowing my luck!

Trev.... the boys are seeing it now too. Check it out!

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure over Missouri and Arkansas is getting more
organized as it moves slowly toward Kentucky. Moisture and
vertical motion are increasing sporadically across our portion
of the Ohio Valley, producing a band of showers that is now
scraping east sections of the FA. Radar indicates that there
will be lengthy lull in showers, probably until this afternoon
when increasing forcing and deeper moisture coincide with
daytime heating, leading to more widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. There will be a marginal threat for severe
weather, including the possibility for brief tornadoes,
primarily over Northern Kentucky. Isolated heavy downpours are
also possible from slow moving, moisture-laden cells.

Temperatures limited by cloud cover are forecast to reach the
near normal upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 5:56 am Trev.... the boys are seeing it now too. Check it out!

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure over Missouri and Arkansas is getting more
organized as it moves slowly toward Kentucky. Moisture and
vertical motion are increasing sporadically across our portion
of the Ohio Valley, producing a band of showers that is now
scraping east sections of the FA. Radar indicates that there
will be lengthy lull in showers, probably until this afternoon
when increasing forcing and deeper moisture coincide with
daytime heating, leading to more widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. There will be a marginal threat for severe
weather, including the possibility for brief tornadoes,
primarily over Northern Kentucky. Isolated heavy downpours are
also possible from slow moving, moisture-laden cells.

Temperatures limited by cloud cover are forecast to reach the
near normal upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon.

Nice to have them on the same page.

Hrrr Is adamant that a sump pump watch will be issued later this evening. Showing a 4 hr (7-11pm) period where someone in cvgland gets 4+” during that span.

Good Morning Les and Trev. Great call by Trevor and though the threat is low its worth talking about so folks are somewhat aware of the situation. No doubt Heavy rain will be the main threat later today and like Les mentioned totals can vary but most folks should do well. I have golf at 9a and takes about 4 1/2 hours so hopefully it remains dry as I don't need rain to hurt my game more so than what is already a bad game lol. Les mentioned Friday and how the rain may last through Saturday morning. So totals in the 1-2 range look good but this type of air mass can dump some heavier rains in isolated areas.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 6:28 am Hrrr Is adamant that a sump pump watch will be issued later this evening. Showing a 4 hr (7-11pm) period where someone in cvgland gets 4+” during that span.

Egads! Let's hope that is wrong.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 6:31 am Good Morning Les and Trev. Great call by Trevor and though the threat is low its worth talking about so folks are somewhat aware of the situation. No doubt Heavy rain will be the main threat later today and like Les mentioned totals can vary but most folks should do well. I have golf at 9a and takes about 4 1/2 hours so hopefully it remains dry as I don't need rain to hurt my game more so than what is already a bad game lol. Les mentioned Friday and how the rain may last through Saturday morning. So totals in the 1-2 range look good but this type of air mass can dump some heavier rains in isolated areas.

Agreed and this is why I kind of have a range out there of 0.50 to 2" plus. If the HRRR is right as Bgoney just mentioned, then everybody's precip total call is way underdone. I'm hoping that the HRRR is way overdone so will keep things simple and stick to the call that I have already made.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 6:47 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2024 6:28 am Hrrr Is adamant that a sump pump watch will be issued later this evening. Showing a 4 hr (7-11pm) period where someone in cvgland gets 4+” during that span.

Egads! Let's hope that is wrong.

I second the motion lol. This kind of system I can see an isolated spot or two getting more than 2 inches as the flow is slow and if you are in the wrong place no doubt some decent amounts can fall. Talked yesterday about the system near the GOM could have some input on our system but timing has kicked that one further east so it will not have an impact on our system.

Regional Radar Loop:

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/day

You can see the action coming up from the SW.

0.05" as of 8am at CVG so we're on the board!