Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2024 5:13 pm Helene is now a post tropical cyclone per the NHC's 5pm update. Isaac is still a cane not bothering anyone. We now have TS Joyce out in the far Eastern Atlantic with winds of 50 mph moving NW at 13. This one looks to remain weak and a fish storm. The next wave coming off of Africa has a 30% chance in the next 5 days.

Glad and thankful that my Mom looks to not appear to be any threat to a landmass.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2024 9:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2024 5:13 pm Helene is now a post tropical cyclone per the NHC's 5pm update. Isaac is still a cane not bothering anyone. We now have TS Joyce out in the far Eastern Atlantic with winds of 50 mph moving NW at 13. This one looks to remain weak and a fish storm. The next wave coming off of Africa has a 30% chance in the next 5 days.

Glad and thankful that my Mom looks to not appear to be any threat to a landmass.

I have an Aunt Helene though.

Isaac has winds of 105 mph, Joyce has winds of 50. The African Wave is now up to a 60% chance in the next 5 days.

Good Morning Les and looks like the GOM will be brewing later next week. Way to early to forecast when and where another tropical system my form and also where it will track. May daughter leaves on a cruise next Sunday out of Miami so hoping no problems getting to Miami and once you get on the ship they can also change the routes to avoid major storms

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Sep 28, 2024 7:53 am Good Morning Les and looks like the GOM will be brewing later next week. Way to early to forecast when and where another tropical system my form and also where it will track. May daughter leaves on a cruise next Sunday out of Miami so hoping no problems getting to Miami and once you get on the ship they can also change the routes to avoid major storms

Good morning Tim. Models have been all over the place for the Gulf system in about a week from now. We'll have to wait and see if there is a trough in the region or not or a high.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 28, 2024 7:50 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2024 9:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2024 5:13 pm Helene is now a post tropical cyclone per the NHC's 5pm update. Isaac is still a cane not bothering anyone. We now have TS Joyce out in the far Eastern Atlantic with winds of 50 mph moving NW at 13. This one looks to remain weak and a fish storm. The next wave coming off of Africa has a 30% chance in the next 5 days.

Glad and thankful that my Mom looks to not appear to be any threat to a landmass.

I have an Aunt Helene though.

Lots to discuss here... Hurricane Isaac has winds of 75 mph moving NE and just about out of the picture. TS Joyce has winds of 45 mph moving NW and beginning to weaken towards becoming a depression. No threat to land.

The wave out in the Eastern ATL has an 80% chance now in the next 5 days. A new wave coming off of Africa has a 20% chance in the next 5 days.

Of more immediate concern is a new wave in the NW Caribbean which has a 50% chance to develop in the next 5 days. This is the one that the models are forecasting to become a cane in the Gulf late next week and potentially impacting some of the same areas that Helene did. Although this one may move a little more to the SE. That of course is an early guess.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Isaac is now down to a TS with winds of 65 mph. Joyce is now a TD with winds of 35 mph. We now have TD 12 (Far Eastern ATL Wave) with winds of 35 mph. This will is moving W and will eventually turn more NW in time. It is expected to become a major hurricane but stay away from land at this time. The African Wave has a 60% chance in the next 5 days. The W Caribbean wave is holding at 50%.

Some good news... the W Caribbean wave is down to 40% now. Joyce is a weak TD. We now have TS Kirk with winds of 60 mph moving WNW at 12. This one could become a major hurricane but remain a fish storm at this time. The African wave has a 90% chance in the next 5 days.

Only two items on the board now. Kirk is now a Cat 1 cane with winds of 75 mph. A major is likely but he will remain a fish storm. The African wave now has a high chance of development.

Kirk is now a major hurricane with winds of 125 mph. We now have TS Leslie (The African Wave) with winds of 40 mph moving west. TS Leslie is expected to become a hurricane in the coming days. Currently no threat to land.

Kirk is a monster this morning with winds of 145 mph. This one has a shot to make it to Cat 4 strength before weakening. Kirk will turn to the NE in time and impact Europe potentially down the road as a strong extra tropical storm. Leslie has winds of 50 mph moving W. She will turn more to the NW in time and become a hurricane this weekend. Leslie is forecast to become a major hurricane early next week.

Kirk is down to 125 mph and Leslie is now a Cat 1 cane with winds of 80 mph.

The Gulf wave is back and it now has a chance chance of development! FL looks to be the recipient of this one. A weak TS is possible in the days ahead.

Revision to my weak TS call.... I was originally thinking a weak TS but the GFS and Euro develop this thing into a hurricane and slam it into Tampa middle of next week. Something keep an eye on for sure.

TD 14 is now born in the Gulf.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

NHC forecasting major hurricane status out of TD 14 soon to become TS Milton. Some guidance takes it to Cat 4 strength.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH



1

Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2024 8:50 am Revision to my weak TS call.... I was originally thinking a weak TS but the GFS and Euro develop this thing into a hurricane and slam it into Tampa middle of next week. Something keep an eye on for sure.

My folks and I have friends, a former pastor and his wife from our Hamilton, OH days who reside in Tampa. Their adult daughter and her family also reside in Tampa. Prayers and thoughts with all along the west coast of FL and with all those impacted in GA, NC, SC, TN e.g. etc., too.

Dear Lord,

Please weaken Milton in the coming days as so much of our country has barely had time to recover from Helene. AMEN.

Kirk is weakening down to 105 mph moving NE and will impact Europe next week as a TS. Leslie has winds of 85 mph moving to the NW. This one is expected to weaken back into a TS here soon and remain a fish storm at this time.

The big show is going to be TS Milton in the Gulf and (like I should have done with Helene) he will gets his own thread.

EDIT: Link to Milton thread: viewtopic.php?t=332

EDIT: #2: GFS is showing another possible big cane impacting FL a week after Milton moves thru. Wow...

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:33 am Kirk is weakening down to 105 mph moving NE and will impact Europe next week as a TS. Leslie has winds of 85 mph moving to the NW. This one is expected to weaken back into a TS here soon and remain a fish storm at this time.

The big show is going to be TS Milton in the Gulf and (like I should have done with Helene) he will gets his own thread.

EDIT: Link to Milton thread: viewtopic.php?t=332

EDIT: #2: GFS is showing another possible big cane impacting FL a week after Milton moves thru. Wow...

!!

Kirk has winds of 80 mph moving NE at 25. Leslie has winds of 90 mph moving NW at 12.

Leslie is weakening now down to a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Soon to be a TS. She will turn more to the NE and become a depression b the end of the week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:32 am Leslie is weakening now down to a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Soon to be a TS. She will turn more to the NE and become a depression b the end of the week.

So where did Kirk disappear to? and wtf is that area off the FL Atlantic Coast? Will that cause any slow down or track change on Milton?

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:32 am Leslie is weakening now down to a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Soon to be a TS. She will turn more to the NE and become a depression b the end of the week.

So where did Kirk disappear to? and wtf is that area off the FL Atlantic Coast? Will that cause any slow down or track change on Milton?

Kirk rocketed off to the NE caught up in the jet stream and will be an extra tropical system for Europe next week. Leslie is now down to a TS and is expected to take a similar path as Kirk. The area off the FL coast has a 20% chance to develop in the next 5-7 days. Currently I am not expecting any tropical development from it. I don't think it's going to impact Milton much. If anything Milton should push it further away from the SE Coast. That's my guess anyway.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:57 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:32 am Leslie is weakening now down to a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Soon to be a TS. She will turn more to the NE and become a depression b the end of the week.

So where did Kirk disappear to? and wtf is that area off the FL Atlantic Coast? Will that cause any slow down or track change on Milton?

Kirk rocketed off to the NE caught up in the jet stream and will be an extra tropical system for Europe next week. Leslie is now down to a TS and is expected to take a similar path as Kirk. The area off the FL coast has a 20% chance to develop in the next 5-7 days. Currently I am not expecting any tropical development from it. I don't think it's going to impact Milton much. If anything Milton should push it further away from the SE Coast. That's my guess anyway.

Well, guess you were onto it there! That little wave got pushed further out into the Atlantic, now has a 40% chance of development out there. amazing how we went from zero to 100 in just a couple weeks time here. Looks like there is another wave coming off the African coast too!