Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:42 am The globals continue to largely argue against any sustained cold pattern developing.

Yea I still like week 3 temp mean to be in that 4-8 below normal range . Warmer(near normal) early in the period and colder later (19-20) with some teens for lows especially if we have a covering of snow nearby but in the end should be in or close to that range (average mean). Haven’t looked deeper into week 4 just yet .

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:42 am The globals continue to largely argue against any sustained cold pattern developing.

Hey Trev and I believe those numbers especially longer term will come down. My forecast for the next 25 days hinges on the PV. Even if the PV does not split or become elongated I believe temps will be 2-4 degrees below normal. If we get the elongated PV then 5-7 degrees below normal and if somehow the entire PV works its way into southern Canada then 8-10 degrees below normal. Then after that period I expect a rather nice turn to milder weather and a so called early spring.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:10 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:42 am The globals continue to largely argue against any sustained cold pattern developing.

Hey Trev and I believe those numbers especially longer term will come down. My forecast for the next 25 days hinges on the PV. Even if the PV does not split or become elongated I believe temps will be 2-4 degrees below normal. If we get the elongated PV then 5-7 degrees below normal and if somehow the entire PV works its way into southern Canada then 8-10 degrees below normal. Then after that period I expect a rather nice turn to milder weather and a so called early spring.

2-4 or even 5-7 doesn’t hit the same as it would in Jan given our increasing daily averages. Cool yes but a cold pattern, I don’t see…especially not sustained. Sure the models will fluctuate around especially in the long range but the moral of the story is that the much-advertised major cold second half of Feb by many doesn’t seem to be playing out.

I always take any forecast from national or even local folks with a grain of salt. Once in awhile something will show up that I missed and will put that in my equation but normally my forecast is pattern recognition. The weather is always changing and I look at bigger events that tend to be pattern changers. One example is last few weeks Alaska has been in the deep freeze but I saw a storm that was pushing in some very mild air into that region which in turn sends the cold into Canada and finally by the end of this week should really start hitting the mainland USA. Timing is always key and the outcome can be delayed or even a little faster depending on systems in the jet stream. Another area I saw was Japan and they finally got some decent snow even in Tokyo where they are not an area that gets tons of snow. Seems when they get some winter weather then look anywhere from 7-14 days down the road depending on the speed of the jet and we usually get into a more winter like pattern. Another place I look at is Moscow and if they are cold we are almost always mild. This is how I based much of my forecasts on as a kid because no models for the general public and even newspapers had the international cities in the Sunday Paper so I had to plot each week how different parts of the world were doing weather wise.

So I rely less on models and they are a great tool but I try and see if they match up to the pattern I am seeing and if both match then the confidence goes way up but many times I am early on the pattern change or the models are late on the pattern change, Funny and I know Les knows this but the first year I was on a weather forum I had never used a model in my life and this had to be 20 years ago and the first year I relied almost 100p/c on the models I had my worst year forecasting. I needed to combine the models and pattern together to form a better forecast.

This year the biggest item imo and it does deal with the STJ in an El Nino year is the jet early in the season was coming into central Mexico instead of California and storms were missing us well to the south. Of course that last week or two more storms have entered California. What happens over the next few weeks in terms of snow will be where do these storms enter the west coast of North America and can we get more phasing in the central USA.

Again forecasting is ongoing and folks have their strengths and weakness like in all parts of life but I look this has a hobby but one I take very serious and when I miss a short term or long term forecast I am mad at myself but that is good because it makes you look back on what just happened.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 9:43 amIMG_1418.jpeg

This bodes well for lake effect snows later this month. Many times the lakes are frozen or mostly frozen at this time of the year so that is a plus for folks near the great lakes.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 9:50 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 9:43 amIMG_1418.jpeg

This bodes well for lake effect snows later this month. Many times the lakes are frozen or mostly frozen at this time of the year so that is a plus for folks near the great lakes.

I hope so, they’re not used to seeing bare ground this time of year , they’re nearing what normally is peak ice for the lakes


How close to Lake Michigan are you where you stay?

Another beauty out there. Mid day temps

Winter weather advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
340 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

INZ075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ077>079-120500-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0005.240213T0000Z-240213T1200Z/
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-
Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Including the cities of Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Fort Thomas, Highland Heights, Bellevue,
Dayton, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge,
Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville,
Downtown Cincinnati, Milford, Summerside, Mount Carmel,
Mount Repose, Withamsville, Mulberry, Day Heights, Georgetown,
Mount Orab, Ripley, and Aberdeen
340 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky and
southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

Some things better change soon if you’re on team cold for the second half of February. I continue to not see anything impressive when it comes to cold.

Tellies don’t always behave like they should on paper…

Congrats 3rd time SB Champs Chiefs as they beat the 49'ers in OT 25-22!!

Currently 27 here in G'ville which is also the progged temp via ILN for Mon morning.

Both CVG / CMH got to 49 and DAY 46 today.

Good Morning and let the games begin. I am sticking with my forecast long term and I understand how models get out of whack sometimes and this sudden huge warm up is most likely because the mjo all of a sudden shows it heading back to the warm phases after visiting the COD. I believe this is incorrect and will watch this over the next few days. The tellies are just a tool like the any model and at least I use them to confirm what I see. Many times they are not the same and that is where the model or myself will end up being wrong. Watch the PV as that is never figured out well by the models until boom its on the move and what I have seen this year is the stretching of the PV several times and believe that is headed for the eastern 1/3 of the country. So no changes and again we should be on the western edge once this pattern is in full mode and then we see if the busy pattern can deliver on some winter precip.

As of 2/10, we are still in Phase 7 of the MJO per the Aussies. Looks like we have done a complete circle through Phase 7, so we'll have to wait and see if it can get into Phase 8 or not going forward.

For snow lovers, I am still watching the period around the 16-17th.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:38 am As of 2/10, we are still in Phase 7 of the MJO per the Aussies. Looks like we have done a complete circle through Phase 7, so we'll have to wait and see if it can get into Phase 8 or not going forward.

For snow lovers, I am still watching the period around the 16-17th.

Yep , latest sat/precip shot shows most activity in 7 and 6 and although you can’t really see phase 8 , that activity has waned

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:38 am As of 2/10, we are still in Phase 7 of the MJO per the Aussies. Looks like we have done a complete circle through Phase 7, so we'll have to wait and see if it can get into Phase 8 or not going forward.

For snow lovers, I am still watching the period around the 16-17th.

Let's not talk about it. Maybe it will happen. Make it a surprise to everyone.

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:38 am As of 2/10, we are still in Phase 7 of the MJO per the Aussies. Looks like we have done a complete circle through Phase 7, so we'll have to wait and see if it can get into Phase 8 or not going forward.

For snow lovers, I am still watching the period around the 16-17th.

Let's not talk about it. Maybe it will happen. Make it a surprise to everyone.

if the modeling doesn't improve, that right there could stop me in my tracks from talking about it.

Thurs is our next chance for light rain associated with a clipper like system. Nothing major at all is expected. Then Fri night into the day on Sat with a cooler weekend ahead is the next forecast challenge. That system is a light snow chance that I am watching. For now... nothing plowable is expected across our forum coverage area,

A perpetual “Screw Zone Watch “ has been issued for the rest of the winter season for the entire tri-cities triangle of CVGland , Cbus and Dayton .

Good Afternoon and the start of my 25 day challenge for myself. I have touted the 12Feb-8th of Mar as a period where we have our best chance of winter weather. The low end is that in this time period the average temp will be between 2-4 degrees below normal,mid range 4-6 below normal and the high end 8-10 below normal. Saying that you would think snow totals would be way up there but again this part of the forecast I am worried that the northeast will take the brunt of the decent storms and we just need to get lucky with an earlier phase with a couple of storms or we get that pattern change storm in early March. Sure we will have a few clippers as well in this pattern but these are not easy to forecast several days away.

I will monitor this each day and if I see the pattern is not what I am seeing then I will eat crow but at the moment turkey is on the plate.

I missed the MJO stalling in Phase 7. Well okay, I didn't miss it, I just choose not to believe what the data was showing. The data turned out to be right so there you go. The colder look that was once showed to occur will not. Or we'll get a glancing blow of it. Definitely getting concerned about the MJO. Already seeing signs of the -AO and -NAO getting back to neutral to slightly positive levels and also seeing the +PNA falling back into the negative category down the road. Can't blame Bgoney for issuing the SZW. We are down to about 1 month of decent snow climo and that is about it.

The 500mb pattern shown over the past week + by some ensembles for mid month , imo, didn’t have a legit cross polar flow into the OV or much of the lower 48 . A nice colder period, but A modified pacific flow over the northern Rockies was consistently shown in ensembles while a polar shot went mostly north and east. Some cold mornings coming up are going to be felt but nothing to un-February like.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:53 pm I missed the MJO stalling in Phase 7. Well okay, I didn't miss it, I just choose not to believe what the data was showing. The data turned out to be right so there you go. The colder look that was once showed to occur will not. Or we'll get a glancing blow of it. Definitely getting concerned about the MJO. Already seeing signs of the -AO and -NAO getting back to neutral to slightly positive levels and also seeing the +PNA falling back into the negative category down the road. Can't blame Bgoney for issuing the SZW. We are down to about 1 month of decent snow climo and that is about it.

I know everyone knows how it works around here in the OV but I wanted to make it official for the archives

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:53 pm I missed the MJO stalling in Phase 7. Well okay, I didn't miss it, I just choose not to believe what the data was showing. The data turned out to be right so there you go. The colder look that was once showed to occur will not. Or we'll get a glancing blow of it. Definitely getting concerned about the MJO. Already seeing signs of the -AO and -NAO getting back to neutral to slightly positive levels and also seeing the +PNA falling back into the negative category down the road. Can't blame Bgoney for issuing the SZW. We are down to about 1 month of decent snow climo and that is about it.

I know everyone knows how it works around here in the OV but I wanted to make it official for the archives

Like the current WWA, ILN had to remove it. Hopefully, you will need to remove the SZW and not upgrade to a warning LOL