Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 9:18 am Just a little off topic but my grass has not been this green and lush for awhile.

Enjoy it! It'll go dormant next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 6:56 am Good morning folks... the main take away in our monthly January thread will be to see how much snow we can get on the ground. Then, that will tell us how cold we can get next week when the arctic hammer drops. We may get a clipper system at some point as well with another shot of arctic air. The cold tries to relax after the 20th so look for a storm system to develop as a result. Definitely some interesting times ahead!

I am definitely watching that period late next week for some possible trouble. Would be a classic setup for an ice event in the region somewhere.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 6:56 am Good morning folks... the main take away in our monthly January thread will be to see how much snow we can get on the ground. Then, that will tell us how cold we can get next week when the arctic hammer drops. We may get a clipper system at some point as well with another shot of arctic air. The cold tries to relax after the 20th so look for a storm system to develop as a result. Definitely some interesting times ahead!

I am definitely watching that period late next week for some possible trouble. Would be a classic setup for an ice event in the region somewhere.

I've been thinking the same thing Trev. I must say, so far I have been very impressed with your winter outlook! So glad to have you posting a lot again on here. I've missed it!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:02 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 6:56 am Good morning folks... the main take away in our monthly January thread will be to see how much snow we can get on the ground. Then, that will tell us how cold we can get next week when the arctic hammer drops. We may get a clipper system at some point as well with another shot of arctic air. The cold tries to relax after the 20th so look for a storm system to develop as a result. Definitely some interesting times ahead!

I am definitely watching that period late next week for some possible trouble. Would be a classic setup for an ice event in the region somewhere.

I've been thinking the same thing Trev. I must say, so far I have been very impressed with your winter outlook! So glad to have you posting a lot again on here. I've missed it!

Thanks man glad to be back! You'll continue to see a lot more of me on here going forward

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:02 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 6:56 am Good morning folks... the main take away in our monthly January thread will be to see how much snow we can get on the ground. Then, that will tell us how cold we can get next week when the arctic hammer drops. We may get a clipper system at some point as well with another shot of arctic air. The cold tries to relax after the 20th so look for a storm system to develop as a result. Definitely some interesting times ahead!

I am definitely watching that period late next week for some possible trouble. Would be a classic setup for an ice event in the region somewhere.

I've been thinking the same thing Trev. I must say, so far I have been very impressed with your winter outlook! So glad to have you posting a lot again on here. I've missed it!

Thanks man glad to be back! You'll continue to see a lot more of me on here going forward

Good deal buddy! Just looking at the 12Z GFS and we go below freezing late Fri evening Jan 12th, get to 35 on Fri the 19th, then head back below freezing again until Tues Jan 23rd. That's pretty impressive at face value.

CVG got to 35, DAY 38 and CMH 39 on Wed.

Keeping an eye on a possible storm late next week as the cold eases, but I’m also watching to see if we can get a clipper sometime midweek in during our coldest period.

Good morning all! A nice day today with a bit of sun and highs in the 40s. Last day to get things done outside if you need too.

Wednesday morning definitely looks cold. I'm not sure Florida can handle temps in the 20s...

Well folks... the extended range continues to look very cold and active. I still firmly believe it is just a matter of time before we get hit by a good one. The pattern truly is great! Sometimes even in good patterns, we can have bad luck. It is what it is. But the pattern truly is good for cold air production and thanks to the strong El Nino, we have an active STJ. You really can't ask for much more. We just need the two to come together correctly as usual.

One thing I haven’t seen yet is “The throwing of the Towel!”

It looks like Friday will bring rain during the day with a few snow showers and flurries late Friday night going into early Saturday. 850mb temps are too warm for snow on Friday during the day.

Mjr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:29 pm One thing I haven’t seen yet is “The throwing of the Towel!”

Hey man! I live in Pierce Township/Amelia too on SR 749 or Ten Mile Rd.

Mjr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:29 pm One thing I haven’t seen yet is “The throwing of the Towel!”

Microburst wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:38 pm

Mjr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:29 pm One thing I haven’t seen yet is “The throwing of the Towel!”

Hey man! I live in Pierce Township/Amelia too on SR 749 or Ten Mile Rd.

10-4.. My brother in law lives on 749
We live on small farm off Lewis Rd

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:20 am Wednesday morning definitely looks cold. I'm not sure Florida can handle temps in the 20s...

Screenshot 2024-01-11 at 11.19.42.png

There's gonna be some frozen dolphin fillets in KC on Sat night.

CVG reached 47 and DAY / CMH 45 today.

I'd like to wish a very happy birthday to one of our long time members, House of Cards! ?Hope you have a great day Dave!!!

The latest Euro weeklies want to keep us below normal through March 1st. Granted we won't be in the ice box the whole time, below normal is below normal. Would fit my winter outlook!

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:54 am The latest Euro weeklies want to keep us below normal through March 1st. Granted we won't be in the ice box the whole time, below normal is below normal. Would fit my winter outlook!

Same here. What I am currently expecting is to have a relaxation in the cold pattern the last week of January. This will be short lived as I expect the pattern to re-load and turn very cold and stormy again for February.

HAPPY 55TH BIRTHDAY DAVE!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned...

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:23 am The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned...

I actually like our chances better with this one. Cold air tries to ease a bit so I don't think suppression will be as big of a player. Ice event, snow event, or ice/snow are what I am keeping my eye on.

This should help illustrate what I'm talking about. Better chance for a further north track when the cold eases.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:23 am The next system of interest will be around Thurs and Fri of next week Jan 18-19th. We've got a northern clipper system dropping in as well as another southern wave. Do we see any interaction between the two? Does the arctic air shunt everything south of us again? Stay tuned...

I actually like our chances better with this one. Cold air tries to ease a bit so I don't think suppression will be as big of a player. Ice event, snow event, or ice/snow are what I am keeping my eye on.

I could see ice as a concern since we'd have warmer air in the upper levels with the cold, dense arctic air slow to scour out at the surface. Depends on the strength of the wave and WAA as usual. Todays GFS has a KY / TN special again while the CMC was a little better but the low pops a bit too late in WV. Heaviest snows were still south.