November 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12z Euro also has some rain on Sunday (Holiday Weekend) but then turning much colder after that. So we'll see what happens since the Holiday Weekend is a week away. For now... falling temps once the front passes today. A dry but cool weekend. Then we get our next system Tues of next week. If we see the non-phased solution then it'll be a light rain maker and not too bad of a temp drop unless the phased system actually occurs. A brief warm up ahead of the Holiday Weekend Sunday system then much colder behind it with possible wintry system after that. That should wrap up November!

[Trevor]

[tron777]

The transition to a stormy pattern is right on schedule, but you know that since I've been talking about it here for a while now

Here on AV too!

[tron777]

Well folks... my last Work From Home day is almost coming to an end. I have to report back to the Mason Office perm. starting on Monday. The bad news... you will not see a boat load of posts from me as you are accustomed to seeing during the day. I will post from my phone when I can. The good news... I get off at 3pm so once the drive home is done, I'll be posting a bunch again at that time. I'll get my posts in just later in the day.

EDIT: Hopefully other folks can fill the void.

[Trevor]

The transition to a stormy pattern is right on schedule, but you know that since I've been talking about it here for a while now

Here on AV too!

Yeah there was pretty good agreement among us on this one.

[tron777]

The transition to a stormy pattern is right on schedule, but you know that since I've been talking about it here for a while now

Here on AV too!

Yeah there was pretty good agreement among us on this one.

Yes Sir! Great minds do think alike you know.

[tron777]

4pm totals:

CVG - 0.44"
Me - 0.39"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.36"

[tron777]

LOL! This is pathetic! 18Z GFS for Tues has a weak 1011 MB low moving thru Central Ohio.

[tron777]

WOW! Paging Tim when you get back from HH.

AK Snow.jpg

[Bgoney]

IMG_0854.png

[MVWxObserver]

I still don't have out my rain gauge since our move and at this rate, along with recovering from eye surgery (invasive detached retina repair in the right orb), it may or probably won't be mounted until next Spring.

Currently 28 here in G'ville and progged for around 48 today.

[MVWxObserver]

1pm totals:

CVG - 0.36"
Me - 0.30"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.23"

Our quarter to half inch call is money.

giphy.gif

Love those "kid at heart" Looney Tunes Bugs Bunny and Friends cartoons every Sat morning from 9 to 10 o'clock that we here in the Miami Valley get on the ME (Memorable Entertainment) TV channel!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and made it back from chilly Hilton Head. The weather was nicer here but still got the golf in once again. Have not looked at anything concerning the weather and will do that sometime today.

Saw some wild fires in Tennessee in both the mountains east of Knoxville on I-40 and south of Jericho on I-75. Plenty of smoke and some fires were clearly seen near exits. Not large fires but they would no doubt burning in isolated areas. They needed the rain from yesterdays systems but much of that stayed to the north. First time I have ever witnessed fires in progress.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Glad to see that you made it back from HH, Tim!

Concerning our system for late Mon thru Tues evening next week... great early call by Bgoney as the non-phased solution is going to be correct. So instead of 1-2" of rain, t-storms, wind, and backside snow showers lingering into Wednesday, we instead are going to see lighter rains on the order of a half inch tops, with not as much cold air on the backside since the system is much weaker. Highs in the 40s now for Wed - Black Friday instead of the 30s with lows in the U20s to L30s and not U10s to L20s like it once looked like.

Then, the GFS is now trying to spin up a secondary low along the front for Thanksgiving bringing in rain but the CMC and Euro continue to be dry and I will be sticking with the dry solution myself. The pattern is just too progressive for something like that to occur in my mind. Still not sure if we see a mixed bag for the Holiday Weekend or all rain since the models continue to bounce around with their respective solutions.

[tpweather]

Still need to time to see exactly what is happening and what may happen for the remaining month of November. The one thing I remember is models have problems much of the time but mid-Nov to early Dec with the changes from fall to winter they really struggle. Many things going on and that is part of the problem so yes expect lots of changes every few days from the models but we start looking for trends.

[tron777]

This Week in Weather from DT:

[tron777]

12Z NAM coming with a half inch for the next system while the 12Z GFS is well over an inch. I'd like for the heavier rains to pan out but I think the NAM is closer to reality per my morning post. Also on the latest GFS run, the Thanksgiving secondary low is still there but it pops later so much further East with the rain shield. 12Z CMC is a weaker version of the GFS for Tues and it is dry for Thanksgiving.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and looking at the next system and from what I see a few days out is a nice rain event and maybe some heavier pockets of rain. I guess at this time .5-1.0 seems like a good range. Still can use the rain and the ground is not frozen which is good. One last mow on Sunday and time to wrap it up for the season. The amounts will most likely be determined by how fast this system moves through. Got a feeling folks to the southwest no doubt have a better shot of higher amounts as they should be in the rain longer before the system heads northeast quickly at a certain point.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and back in the saddle. Went over the first system and no changes but I really like the end of November for the first chance of accumulating snow. Still many days away but about a week from today things should be starting to shake out. The period probably from Nov 25-Nov 30th looks interesting from a pattern point of view as colder air should be able to move further south in the central plains and this hopefully will form a storm somewhere over the southern plains. Then do we get a lakes cutter,appl runner or does this head south of us and head up the east coast. Again at this time can only look at the pattern until we see exactly how this comes together.

[Trevor]

Here’s the latest GEFS (extended version) and Euro Weeklies. Both definitely have a colder look to December. I still think there will be a period of the month where we torch (middle of the month is what I’m thinking) but this needs to be watched.

[Trevor]

[tron777]

Tim... I am watching the end of the month too for sure. I've been seeing some snow on and off with the guidance. Still a ways out of course but I am in the keep one eye open camp for sure.

Trev... the mid December torch matches my idea to a tee. I said for December previously that the best chance for snow and cold is early and then later in the month. We should have a 2 week mild period when the MJO takes its tour thru the warm phases in the middle of the month.

[Trevor]

Tim... I am watching the end of the month too for sure. I've been seeing some snow on and off with the guidance. Still a ways out of course but I am in the keep one eye open camp for sure.

Trev... the mid December torch matches my idea to a tee. I said for December previously that the best chance for snow and cold is early and then later in the month. We should have a 2 week mild period when the MJO takes its tour thru the warm phases in the middle of the month.

Yeah it seems like a good call my man!

[Trevor]

Les and Tim: I am in agreement with the last week of Nov timeframe for the potential for something. Euro drops the hammer with cold during that time. GFS does as well, just not quite as cold.

But yes I agree with you guys on that time period having potential. Has been shown off and on for a few days now on the models.

[Trevor]

The Euro and the NAM place the heaviest band of rain right over the tri-state with well over an inch. Because the low will be deepening as it tracks to our NW, it will be able to pull in a lot of moisture from the Gulf. Someone is going to get 1 to as much as 2 inches of rain from this, and those two models say that someone is us.