Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 8:22 am Happy Birthday Charles! Hope you have a great day and have time to do a little fishing!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 9:33 am Great post Tim! The 500 MB maps show the ridge getting to 600 DM which is typically upper 90s to the low 100s in our part of the world. I think the center of the ridge stays just to our West so our heights for a few days would be in that 594-597 DM range. That normally would translate into the low and mid 90s. But as you said, a lot of rain has fallen to our SW where the heat is coming from so while West KY could certainly see the mid to upper 90s (as has already occurred this summer on a couple of occasions) then us being further NE should only max out in the low 90s. 92 or 93 looks good to me using CVG as a reference point. ILN has us in the mid 90s by Monday per the latest zone forecast product. The only fly in the ointment that would cause these thoughts to bust low (meaning the higher call is correct) would be if dews remain low. The airmass would certainly be able to heat up much more rapidly if dews stay in the U50s to L60s. As soon as the dew gets into the mid 60s and above, you start to add humidity to the airmass so it doesn't heat up quite as fast. The dew point is going to be a factor in how hot we can actually get in my opinion.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 9:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 9:33 am Great post Tim! The 500 MB maps show the ridge getting to 600 DM which is typically upper 90s to the low 100s in our part of the world. I think the center of the ridge stays just to our West so our heights for a few days would be in that 594-597 DM range. That normally would translate into the low and mid 90s. But as you said, a lot of rain has fallen to our SW where the heat is coming from so while West KY could certainly see the mid to upper 90s (as has already occurred this summer on a couple of occasions) then us being further NE should only max out in the low 90s. 92 or 93 looks good to me using CVG as a reference point. ILN has us in the mid 90s by Monday per the latest zone forecast product. The only fly in the ointment that would cause these thoughts to bust low (meaning the higher call is correct) would be if dews remain low. The airmass would certainly be able to heat up much more rapidly if dews stay in the U50s to L60s. As soon as the dew gets into the mid 60s and above, you start to add humidity to the airmass so it doesn't heat up quite as fast. The dew point is going to be a factor in how hot we can actually get in my opinion.

Exactly Les. I have mentioned this many times that the hottest days we usually see when a hot spell happens is the first or second day when the dew points are low and just ahead of a cold front. Just a point about the media and lets go with Phoenix,AZ and yes very hot July and 1st half of August with temps between 6-10 degrees above normal. Just checked for the year and the temp is exactly perfect for the year. So to be above by that much in July and August means they had to be between 6-10 degrees below normal earlier in the year and I know May and June were well below normal.

The point being is I have no problem with the media reporting the heat but at the same time you must report the below normal temps and again most folks who don't follow the weather will just read the heat headlines.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 2:24 pm Only 72 as of 2pm at CVG with gusty W winds in that 20-30 mph range. Welcome to September this week before August makes a come back next week. Some of our I-70 Crew are currently seeing some light showers and those will continue to push south as the afternoon wears on. Once we lose the sun, showers will diminish in coverage with skies going mostly clear overnight. For those that got decent rains yesterday and / or shower activity today... look for localized patchy dense fog the next several mornings especially in the usual fog prone areas like river valleys.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 3:18 pm Listen to Brian's video today and had some interesting points. Every El Nino will be different and this one will be no different. You try and find similar patterns when this type of El NIno happened before but never a perfect fit.. He mentioned 2015 and no doubt a possible match but the current ocean heat is another wildcard. Remember last season at the end of a La NIna and California got hit with heavy snows and rainfall. They are usually getting those years with and El Nino. How much blocking is always key in the winter and this helps in slowing down systems and also this usually allows colder air to move further south. Of course once we get into October we start to see more signs of what can happen but even then as we know things can change quickly like last December with the blizzard and then we had a very mild and boring winter for the most part.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 3:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 2:24 pm Only 72 as of 2pm at CVG with gusty W winds in that 20-30 mph range. Welcome to September this week before August makes a come back next week. Some of our I-70 Crew are currently seeing some light showers and those will continue to push south as the afternoon wears on. Once we lose the sun, showers will diminish in coverage with skies going mostly clear overnight. For those that got decent rains yesterday and / or shower activity today... look for localized patchy dense fog the next several mornings especially in the usual fog prone areas like river valleys.

Warmer here in Wausau with a temp of 76 but a dew point of 48

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 4:49 pm CPC has issued their 8-14 day Excessive Heat Outlook and we are right on the edge of it. The highest probabilities of the mid 90s+ are to our South and West. This re-affirms our call for the low 90s early to mid next week. Image thanks to BG at WAVE3 News.


CPCExcessiveHeatOutlook.jpg

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:07 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 15, 2023 4:49 pm CPC has issued their 8-14 day Excessive Heat Outlook and we are right on the edge of it. The highest probabilities of the mid 90s+ are to our South and West. This re-affirms our call for the low 90s early to mid next week. Image thanks to BG at WAVE3 News.


CPCExcessiveHeatOutlook.jpg

Interesting map and a few things I believe we can take out of this post. No doubt the northeast will remain in the current pattern of stormy and cooler than normal. Florida looks to have some increase in rainfall. I believe this map deals with not only temps but heat index and that is where this map is showing the worse heat and that is where rainfall has been rather high the last 2-4 weeks. I agree we are on the edge and again locally low 90's is usually the way to go around here. The only thing that could change this and push it further north is a tropical system either in the GOM or in the western Atlantic and at the moment no signs of this happening in the near term