August 2023 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Closing in on One inch of rain here!

[Bgoney]

Falling apart as usual here

us_radarus-en_2023_08_15_3776_KILN_357_011633.png

[Angelika]

The rain stopped so we ran to the store. Bad move. We're trying to drive home in a heavy downpour. We can barely see out the windshield. I will be interested to see how much rain has fallen when this is over.

[airwolf76]

Happy Birthday Charles! Hope you have a great day and have time to do a little fishing!

thanks for remembering me. no fishing. its been a little too warm and humid for me to get out fishing since June. I just been doing lots of tree and yard maintenance to keep up with the growth. I probably will not get back to fishing till late September or so.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Final totals from my hood are:

CVG - 0.21"
Me - 0.62"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.33"

Next chance for light rain showers will be this afternoon and evening as the upper trough passes. Amounts will range from nothing to a tenth of an inch. Only the low to mid 70s for highs today. Tomorrow looks awesome! We start the day in the 50s and warm into the upper 70s with plentiful sunshine! On Thurs, the low to mid 80s ahead of a weak cold front. Showers will be possible late afternoon and evening. Only expecting light amounts with this too and not everyone will get wet. My range here is 0 to 0.20". Friday is cooler around 80 and less humid with sunshine!

As the weekend rolls around... Mid 80s Sat. Near 90 Sunday and in the lower 90s with higher humidity Mon - about Wed of next week. Still watching the timing of a back door style cold front pushing down from the NE to shunt the heat back to our West and SW as I mentioned yesterday.

[young pup]

8 tenths in the rain Gauge from yesterday and overnight.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and I see the rain last night was just a drop in the bucket. The good thing is some nice cooler air for about 3-4 days and that is a nice relief. The heat wave of the century next week lol. I am not going to name mets on here but a well known met is forecasting upper 90's to near 100 over the weekend and early next week in the Ohio Valley. So if we see a temp of 97 at Paducah for one day the forecast is correct lol. Do we know how wet is has been over Missouri,Illinois,western Indiana,Kentucky and Tennessee. The warming will happen but just a normal mid-late August period of heat. Here is the problem in the media and its not about being correct but just thrown stuff out there and most of the public will not follow up on how hot we get and just take it for granted the media is correct.

[tron777]

Great post Tim! The 500 MB maps show the ridge getting to 600 DM which is typically upper 90s to the low 100s in our part of the world. I think the center of the ridge stays just to our West so our heights for a few days would be in that 594-597 DM range. That normally would translate into the low and mid 90s. But as you said, a lot of rain has fallen to our SW where the heat is coming from so while West KY could certainly see the mid to upper 90s (as has already occurred this summer on a couple of occasions) then us being further NE should only max out in the low 90s. 92 or 93 looks good to me using CVG as a reference point. ILN has us in the mid 90s by Monday per the latest zone forecast product. The only fly in the ointment that would cause these thoughts to bust low (meaning the higher call is correct) would be if dews remain low. The airmass would certainly be able to heat up much more rapidly if dews stay in the U50s to L60s. As soon as the dew gets into the mid 60s and above, you start to add humidity to the airmass so it doesn't heat up quite as fast. The dew point is going to be a factor in how hot we can actually get in my opinion.

[tpweather]

Great post Tim! The 500 MB maps show the ridge getting to 600 DM which is typically upper 90s to the low 100s in our part of the world. I think the center of the ridge stays just to our West so our heights for a few days would be in that 594-597 DM range. That normally would translate into the low and mid 90s. But as you said, a lot of rain has fallen to our SW where the heat is coming from so while West KY could certainly see the mid to upper 90s (as has already occurred this summer on a couple of occasions) then us being further NE should only max out in the low 90s. 92 or 93 looks good to me using CVG as a reference point. ILN has us in the mid 90s by Monday per the latest zone forecast product. The only fly in the ointment that would cause these thoughts to bust low (meaning the higher call is correct) would be if dews remain low. The airmass would certainly be able to heat up much more rapidly if dews stay in the U50s to L60s. As soon as the dew gets into the mid 60s and above, you start to add humidity to the airmass so it doesn't heat up quite as fast. The dew point is going to be a factor in how hot we can actually get in my opinion.

Exactly Les. I have mentioned this many times that the hottest days we usually see when a hot spell happens is the first or second day when the dew points are low and just ahead of a cold front. Just a point about the media and lets go with Phoenix,AZ and yes very hot July and 1st half of August with temps between 6-10 degrees above normal. Just checked for the year and the temp is exactly perfect for the year. So to be above by that much in July and August means they had to be between 6-10 degrees below normal earlier in the year and I know May and June were well below normal.

The point being is I have no problem with the media reporting the heat but at the same time you must report the below normal temps and again most folks who don't follow the weather will just read the heat headlines.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Great post Tim! The 500 MB maps show the ridge getting to 600 DM which is typically upper 90s to the low 100s in our part of the world. I think the center of the ridge stays just to our West so our heights for a few days would be in that 594-597 DM range. That normally would translate into the low and mid 90s. But as you said, a lot of rain has fallen to our SW where the heat is coming from so while West KY could certainly see the mid to upper 90s (as has already occurred this summer on a couple of occasions) then us being further NE should only max out in the low 90s. 92 or 93 looks good to me using CVG as a reference point. ILN has us in the mid 90s by Monday per the latest zone forecast product. The only fly in the ointment that would cause these thoughts to bust low (meaning the higher call is correct) would be if dews remain low. The airmass would certainly be able to heat up much more rapidly if dews stay in the U50s to L60s. As soon as the dew gets into the mid 60s and above, you start to add humidity to the airmass so it doesn't heat up quite as fast. The dew point is going to be a factor in how hot we can actually get in my opinion.

Exactly Les. I have mentioned this many times that the hottest days we usually see when a hot spell happens is the first or second day when the dew points are low and just ahead of a cold front. Just a point about the media and lets go with Phoenix,AZ and yes very hot July and 1st half of August with temps between 6-10 degrees above normal. Just checked for the year and the temp is exactly perfect for the year. So to be above by that much in July and August means they had to be between 6-10 degrees below normal earlier in the year and I know May and June were well below normal.

The point being is I have no problem with the media reporting the heat but at the same time you must report the below normal temps and again most folks who don't follow the weather will just read the heat headlines.

100% agree!!! The red part is the most important point of your entire post, Tim. Perfectly stated!

[Angelika]

We got 1.1" of rain at my house yesterday!

[tron777]

Only 72 as of 2pm at CVG with gusty W winds in that 20-30 mph range. Welcome to September this week before August makes a come back next week. Some of our I-70 Crew are currently seeing some light showers and those will continue to push south as the afternoon wears on. Once we lose the sun, showers will diminish in coverage with skies going mostly clear overnight. For those that got decent rains yesterday and / or shower activity today... look for localized patchy dense fog the next several mornings especially in the usual fog prone areas like river valleys.

[tpweather]

Only 72 as of 2pm at CVG with gusty W winds in that 20-30 mph range. Welcome to September this week before August makes a come back next week. Some of our I-70 Crew are currently seeing some light showers and those will continue to push south as the afternoon wears on. Once we lose the sun, showers will diminish in coverage with skies going mostly clear overnight. For those that got decent rains yesterday and / or shower activity today... look for localized patchy dense fog the next several mornings especially in the usual fog prone areas like river valleys.

Warmer here in Wausau with a temp of 76 but a dew point of 48

[tpweather]

Listen to Brian's video today and had some interesting points. Every El Nino will be different and this one will be no different. You try and find similar patterns when this type of El NIno happened before but never a perfect fit.. He mentioned 2015 and no doubt a possible match but the current ocean heat is another wildcard. Remember last season at the end of a La NIna and California got hit with heavy snows and rainfall. They are usually getting those years with and El Nino. How much blocking is always key in the winter and this helps in slowing down systems and also this usually allows colder air to move further south. Of course once we get into October we start to see more signs of what can happen but even then as we know things can change quickly like last December with the blizzard and then we had a very mild and boring winter for the most part.

[tron777]

Listen to Brian's video today and had some interesting points. Every El Nino will be different and this one will be no different. You try and find similar patterns when this type of El NIno happened before but never a perfect fit.. He mentioned 2015 and no doubt a possible match but the current ocean heat is another wildcard. Remember last season at the end of a La NIna and California got hit with heavy snows and rainfall. They are usually getting those years with and El Nino. How much blocking is always key in the winter and this helps in slowing down systems and also this usually allows colder air to move further south. Of course once we get into October we start to see more signs of what can happen but even then as we know things can change quickly like last December with the blizzard and then we had a very mild and boring winter for the most part.

We will be discussing this more in our El Nino, The Winter, and YOU thread in the weeks and months to come, but even if it gets Strong to Super in intensity, where the forcing is will be the difference maker. Currently, the El Nino is expected to be East based (From now into December) transitioning to a more basin wide event as the forcing pushes the warmer SST's westward as we get into January and February. Assuming that this is correct, we'd have a mild December, but a much better January and February for cold and snow lovers. We still don't know if the modeling will be right or wrong since this is only mid August, but the forcing of the El Nino and where the warmest SST's are is of the utmost importance. A -QBO can only do so much along with the very warm Ocean temps in both the ATL and PAC sides. We truly are in uncharted territory once again since we have no analogs truly to look it.

[tron777]

Only 72 as of 2pm at CVG with gusty W winds in that 20-30 mph range. Welcome to September this week before August makes a come back next week. Some of our I-70 Crew are currently seeing some light showers and those will continue to push south as the afternoon wears on. Once we lose the sun, showers will diminish in coverage with skies going mostly clear overnight. For those that got decent rains yesterday and / or shower activity today... look for localized patchy dense fog the next several mornings especially in the usual fog prone areas like river valleys.

Warmer here in Wausau with a temp of 76 but a dew point of 48

Max High so far at CVG is 73. Back down to 71 as of the 3pm reading. It is very overcast now so it wouldn't surprise me if 73 is all we can do. If that holds, that is 13 degrees below normal for highs for mid Aug. That is not even close to the record cold high for today's date. That was 67 degrees set back in 1979 (using CVG).

[tron777]

Scattered showers are just about ready to cross the river into NKY. A few of you will see some sprinkles / ground wetters this afternoon and evening as we have previously mentioned.

[tron777]

Just had one of those brief showers occur here. Will just go with a Trace of rain attm. It didn't last more then a min or two. Dampened the ground then it was over. Pretty much what was expected looking at the radar.

[tron777]

CPC has issued their 8-14 day Excessive Heat Outlook and we are right on the edge of it. The highest probabilities of the mid 90s+ are to our South and West. This re-affirms our call for the low 90s early to mid next week. Image thanks to BG at WAVE3 News.

CPCExcessiveHeatOutlook.jpg

[tpweather]

CPC has issued their 8-14 day Excessive Heat Outlook and we are right on the edge of it. The highest probabilities of the mid 90s+ are to our South and West. This re-affirms our call for the low 90s early to mid next week. Image thanks to BG at WAVE3 News.


CPCExcessiveHeatOutlook.jpg

Interesting map and a few things I believe we can take out of this post. No doubt the northeast will remain in the current pattern of stormy and cooler than normal. Florida looks to have some increase in rainfall. I believe this map deals with not only temps but heat index and that is where this map is showing the worse heat and that is where rainfall has been rather high the last 2-4 weeks. I agree we are on the edge and again locally low 90's is usually the way to go around here. The only thing that could change this and push it further north is a tropical system either in the GOM or in the western Atlantic and at the moment no signs of this happening in the near term

[tron777]

CPC has issued their 8-14 day Excessive Heat Outlook and we are right on the edge of it. The highest probabilities of the mid 90s+ are to our South and West. This re-affirms our call for the low 90s early to mid next week. Image thanks to BG at WAVE3 News.


CPCExcessiveHeatOutlook.jpg

Interesting map and a few things I believe we can take out of this post. No doubt the northeast will remain in the current pattern of stormy and cooler than normal. Florida looks to have some increase in rainfall. I believe this map deals with not only temps but heat index and that is where this map is showing the worse heat and that is where rainfall has been rather high the last 2-4 weeks. I agree we are on the edge and again locally low 90's is usually the way to go around here. The only thing that could change this and push it further north is a tropical system either in the GOM or in the western Atlantic and at the moment no signs of this happening in the near term

Exactly Tim. If some of the guidance is right, the Gulf system doesn't show up until the last week or so of the month so the current heat spell we are tracking for next week is already over anyway. Whether or not the tropics can induce higher heights and more ridging remains to be seen. You can get the opposite effect too where a tropical system pushing north times itself just right to get captured by an incoming trough. You get the dumbbell effect with a shot of cooler air behind it. Both scenarios are possible in my mind at this very early stage of the game.

[tron777]

73 at CVG today, 74 here. That was all we could do. I was just outside and that west wind is no joke combined with temps in the U60s to around 70 right now and it truly feels like Fall IMO at least for now. I'm not complaining at all! I will be when those 90s come back though as is typical for me.

EDIT: DAY topped out at 71 and CMH 73.

[cloudy72]

72 was my high today. Saw a few peeks of sun earlier in the day but the majority has been very overcast windy and Misty with showers from time to time. Very September like!

[tron777]

I just had a nice downpour and actually picked up 0.07" of rain. I'll take it!