Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:20 am 0.10" so far from the morning rain. It is coming to an end here shortly. Trev, I am also concerned about that 30% large hail risk too for the western 1/2 of the area. Could see some super cells congeal into a line over the Tri-state. Definitely a concerning set up.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:54 am Wonder if we move up to a moderate risk concerning severe weather. Already in the enhanced area but my guess is they may move that up one notch to the moderate risk.

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 8:08 am Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 8:08 am Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:51 pm Both CVG and DAY reached 86 and CMH 84 for Sun.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:36 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:51 pm Both CVG and DAY reached 86 and CMH 84 for Sun.

This is why we didn’t see much activity IMO. I thought we would need upper 80s to ninety, so we were the unfortunate screw zone for rainfall

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 8:47 am

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 8:08 am Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

I was wondering the same thing last Friday when it was cloudy again. Seems like we've had a lot of cloudy and cool day In June and it looks like we can add today and maybe tomorrow for the month.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:47 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:36 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:51 pm Both CVG and DAY reached 86 and CMH 84 for Sun.

This is why we didn’t see much activity IMO. I thought we would need upper 80s to ninety, so we were the unfortunate screw zone for rainfall

Dead on and I though we would see the heat index get somewhere between 95-100 and that ended up short by a few degrees. Heading to Louisville and they did get in that range and ended up with a nice total as did much of central and eastern Kentucky. My final total for the day was 0.24. We can still use the rain but the heat has not been a problem so that no doubt has helped.

Later this week it looks like the ring of fire may come into play. When this happens you can get some decent rains and strong to severe storms. The biggest problem with this is it seems this gets into a certain pattern and if you are in the correct place plentiful rainfall but if your outside that area little to no rain. The models are showing this but much further south than you would normally see for late June which for us may help.No doubt to the south and west later this week the heat and humidity will build big time and Paducah is all ready forecasting temps over 100. Going to be a battle zone between the heat and cooler air much further northeast. At this point we look to be in a sweet spot but to far in advance to give it the all go.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:49 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 8:47 am

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 8:08 am Grandpa Wooly was looking at the stats of June cloudy days. Records are showing 19 out of 25 days in June were cloudy or ptly cloudy. Is this above average or below ave for June? The Woolies feel like they are back in Scotland.

I was wondering the same thing last Friday when it was cloudy again. Seems like we've had a lot of cloudy and cool day In June and it looks like we can add today and maybe tomorrow for the month.

Past 30 days solar flux anomalies (clouds/sun)are close to normal but probably skewed a bit with those few days of May thrown in with June



IMG_0391.jpeg

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 1:22 pm For tomorrow, I expect our extreme E counties to have a shower chance in the afternoon, the rest of us are dry. Wed and Thurs are good with lower humidity and more pleasant temps. 12Z GFS has an MCS diving in here Thurs night into early Fri then more scattered action on Sat.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 1:30 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2023 1:22 pm For tomorrow, I expect our extreme E counties to have a shower chance in the afternoon, the rest of us are dry. Wed and Thurs are good with lower humidity and more pleasant temps. 12Z GFS has an MCS diving in here Thurs night into early Fri then more scattered action on Sat.

Great forecast Les. What I am concerned about is late in the week with the mcs. Usually once that train starts it can take several days to wind down. We see these most summers and this one seems want to come through the tri-state. Like I mentioned before this one the models are showing is somewhat further south than you would expect this time of year but also could be rather strong with the heat and humidity from Texas trying to flex its muscle north and east later this week. Could be a wide range of weather late in the week and you could see places that get under the mcs stay in the 70's and folks further southwest over 100 and that is in the Ohio Valley.