Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and hope everyone has a wonderful Memorial Day and a day we celebrate those who gave so much to this country. Btw this year it happens to fall on my daughters birthday and she turns 35 today.

Concerning the weather and the atmosphere was so dry yesterday that any moisture that was heading this way could not give us any rain except a few sprinkles. Even Lexington only ended up with 1/4 of an inch.

The weather will remain mostly dry this week and if you are lucky a late date pop up shower or thundershower but my guess is that will be few and far between. Starting to get rather dry and I can tell with some of the grass that is facing the sun in the afternoon is getting that dry look. Is this going to be a short term drought and I guess we can use that term but the good thing is we had a nice dose of precip the first four months.

Looks like we get rather hot later this week but the humidity will be held down so we get these big swings in temps and a pattern you normally see in late August or September with hot days and temps that fall quickly at night. My guess is when the pattern starts to change we will see the humidity go up for a few days before hopefully a nice cold front enters the picture. Hopefully the cold front will stall near us for a few days which then could bring us some nice rainfall. The problem is we no doubt have the looks of a typical El Nino situation which usually means the south is wet but just north of that area is dry.

Getting ready to go shopping! If you know what I mean.

HAPPY 35TH BIRTHDAY TO YOUR DAUGHTER, TIM!!

Now at 73 here in G'ville.

Our Redlegs have a rare Memorial Day off as they travel to Boston for a 3 game series vs the Red Sox to round out their road trip.

Great 3 game SWEEP they had over the Cubbies!

Thanks Eric, she is a wonderful person and very luck to be her dad. Hope you and your family are doing well. Only 4 games out of 1st place and we meet the Brewers at home this weekend. Love to see them take 2 of 3 from Boston before the weekend contest

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 11:31 am Thanks Eric, she is a wonderful person and very luck to be her dad. Hope you and your family are doing well. Only 4 games out of 1st place and we meet the Brewers at home this weekend. Love to see them take 2 of 3 from Boston before the weekend contest

You're quite welcome Tim.

My folks and I are hanging in there. My sister Retha and bil Mike came up this past weekend on Fri from NC for a cousin of ours wedding in Whitestown, IN north of Indy on Sat at a farm-themed venue called "Six Pence" and it was delightful to be with everyone!

They headed home this morning between 10 and 10:30 so even though a short visit it was great to see them again!

My cousin Taylor and her husband Caleb will be residing in Fishers, IN.

Yes, I would love to see them take 2 of 3 from Boston, too.

So any idea when his split flow Rex Block feature will start breaking down in June?

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 2:24 pm So any idea when his split flow Rex Block feature will start breaking down in June?

As far as the long range can see , it certainly does not look good for widespread soaking rains , and it hats all the way to mid month(GFS) As long as we keep seeing troughs along the southern and SE states the GOM is close for business in the Midwest and OV. Any rains if any will remain isolated in nature and those that see them will be very fortunate

Had a great day today! Got my fireworks shopping done! Fitz and Crew at Queen City took major care of myself and my 2 neighbors for our show this year.

The 90s are coming the 90s are coming! We may get 1 or two days towards the end of the week for the contest. Speaking of that, 2 days left to enter! A small shower chance today, good luck! Most won't see a thing.

Update from the boys - this is basically the same story thru Thursday POPS wise:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As the upper low over the Carolinas drifts off the coast today,
gradually weakening, the long-running Rex Block pattern will
finally be on its way out. The upper pattern will remain quite
ill-defined over the Ohio Valley, but with some semblance of
deep layer easterly flow advecting theta-e into the region. At
the surface, there will be generally higher pressures over the
northeastern states, and generally lower pressures off to the
south. This will lead to southeasterly boundary layer flow, and
dewpoints will increase by several degrees today.

This will be the start of a switch to a more summer-like
pattern, with building heat and humidity, but no significant
weather features capable of providing organized forcing. SPC
HREF SBCAPE projections today are generally around or below 1000
J/kg, and model soundings suggest the CAPE profiles will be
narrow. CAM projections for convective coverage today are
spotty, with little indication of storm strength -- owing to the
marginal CAPE and abysmally-low deep-layer wind flow. Thus, the
forecast expectations remain largely unchanged -- some diurnal
development in the 15-25 PoP range, primarily in the southern
and western sections of the forecast area.

With mostly sunny conditions, max temps are forecast to be in
the mid 80s.

Had to break out the sprinkler for the lawn today. Starting to see a few patchy brown areas in full sunshine spots. Shaded areas as always no problems. It is amazing but the ground is cracked and bone dry here. Not good for it being only late May. Hope to see the precip come or a change to cooler temps if it's going to remain dry. Either one would be helpful.

12Z Euro is completely dry for the next 10 days at CVG.

DAY and CMH reached 86 and CVG 85 on Memorial Day.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 12:38 pm Had to break out the sprinkler for the lawn today. Starting to see a few patchy brown areas in full sunshine spots. Shaded areas as always no problems. It is amazing but the ground is cracked and bone dry here. Not good for it being only late May. Hope to see the precip come or a change to cooler temps if it's going to remain dry. Either one would be helpful.

Drove by a hospital today that grass is almost completely dormant out front. No shade whatsoever. It doesn't help that the sun reflects of it thousands of windows too. Some clients yards are starting to get crispy too. I can't recall the last time it has been this dry this early in the season.

young pup wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 6:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 12:38 pm Had to break out the sprinkler for the lawn today. Starting to see a few patchy brown areas in full sunshine spots. Shaded areas as always no problems. It is amazing but the ground is cracked and bone dry here. Not good for it being only late May. Hope to see the precip come or a change to cooler temps if it's going to remain dry. Either one would be helpful.

Drove by a hospital today that grass is almost completely dormant out front. No shade whatsoever. It doesn't help that the sun reflects of it thousands of windows too. Some clients yards are starting to get crispy too. I can't recall the last time it has been this dry this early in the season.

Same here , I don't recall it being this dry in May and for an extended period. Already watering plants and shrubs, never moved the height of cut on lawn mower this early before but I did that too, Never called into action this early the bucket brigade off the garage roof ,

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 3:16 pm 12Z Euro is completely dry for the next 10 days at CVG.

The 500mb pattern remains terrible to at least near mid month. Its a rather easy pattern to forecast much like in winter time when the 500mb pattern is less than ideal . Beautifull days ahead but we'll be paying a price if things don't change mid month and beyond

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 6:45 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 6:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 12:38 pm Had to break out the sprinkler for the lawn today. Starting to see a few patchy brown areas in full sunshine spots. Shaded areas as always no problems. It is amazing but the ground is cracked and bone dry here. Not good for it being only late May. Hope to see the precip come or a change to cooler temps if it's going to remain dry. Either one would be helpful.

Drove by a hospital today that grass is almost completely dormant out front. No shade whatsoever. It doesn't help that the sun reflects of it thousands of windows too. Some clients yards are starting to get crispy too. I can't recall the last time it has been this dry this early in the season.

Same here , I don't recall it being this dry in May and for an extended period. Already watering plants and shrubs, never moved the height of cut on lawn mower this early before but I did that too, Never called into action this early the bucket brigade off the garage roof ,

Looks like we'll end up May around 2.5" below normal at CVG. 2016 only had 2.8" for the month but still not quite as dry as our current 2.16". Avg is 4.67". You have to go all the way back to the very dry May of 2015 where we only got 1.63"!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 7:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 3:16 pm 12Z Euro is completely dry for the next 10 days at CVG.

The 500mb pattern remains terrible to at least near mid month. Its a rather easy pattern to forecast much like in winter time when the 500mb pattern is less than ideal . Beautifull days ahead but we'll be paying a price if things don't change mid month and beyond

Rex Block patterns are tough to break for sure. Not good going into June,. If we go thru mid June like this, it is going to be one long hot summer.

CVG reached 84, DAY 86 and CMH 87 on Tues.

Last day of the month and no surprise, another dry day with temps in the mid to upper 80s. ILN has a 20% POP in there for today so good luck!

Last 3 weeks + of dryness and how rare it is

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 8:06 am Last 3 weeks + of dryness and how rare it is

Great post! I was wondering where we stood with the dryness. Typically May is one of the wetter months and can't recall it being as dry this time of year before. Even in my dome it's unusual! LOL Grass starting to get brown patches and will only get worse into next week unfortunately.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 8:26 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 8:06 am Last 3 weeks + of dryness and how rare it is

Great post! I was wondering where we stood with the dryness. Typically May is one of the wetter months and can't recall it being as dry this time of year before. Even in my dome it's unusual! LOL Grass starting to get brown patches and will only get worse into next week unfortunately.

I like seeing 1977 on that list but don't like seeing 2007. That was a torrid summer with lots of 100s by August.

We are heading to SC this weekend for vacation. We're hoping for a tropical system-free week. What do you guys think? We're going to Garden City Beach, about 30 mins south of Myrtle Beach.