Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:56 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:27 pm Remember all those youtube forecasters back in fall making their annual bold predictions for the winter man they sure have a lot of explaining to do and will lose a lot of subs i reckon. i swear some of these guys post the same maps year after year in hopes it will be correct. they always claim how passionate and hard they work yet they are always wrong lol

I agree! One winter will come along and they will be right, but for the wrong reasons. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut you know!

NOAAs winter forecasts have a better track record than any of the clicksters on the web But thats mostly due to NOAAs broadbased generalization of the winter overall

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:03 pm That does sound awesome. Anyone have a time machine so we can go back and revisit those days that have long since passed?

These guys might be able to help.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:56 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:27 pm Remember all those youtube forecasters back in fall making their annual bold predictions for the winter man they sure have a lot of explaining to do and will lose a lot of subs i reckon. i swear some of these guys post the same maps year after year in hopes it will be correct. they always claim how passionate and hard they work yet they are always wrong lol

I agree! One winter will come along and they will be right, but for the wrong reasons. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut you know!

NOAAs winter forecasts have a better track record than any of the clicksters on the web But thats mostly due to NOAAs broadbased generalization of the winter overall

Farmer's Almanac sure owes us a bunch of snow too!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:09 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:40 pm I have no idea what the effect is, but per Spaceweather.com the past few days, satellite measurements have seen temperatures in the stratosphere of - 85 C. This causes unusual ice crystal clouds to form, usually in the artic circle. However, they are being seen as far south as Scotland.

Hi Linn.... Are you referring to Noctilucent Clouds? I've heard of the term but have zero knowledge of how it may or may not impact our weather. I have noticed over the last few years that they are starting to show up further south then normal. That's really all I know.

They are called Polar Stratospheric Clouds or PSC. There is a discussion in the archives on January 30, 2023 with pictures.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:09 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:40 pm I have no idea what the effect is, but per Spaceweather.com the past few days, satellite measurements have seen temperatures in the stratosphere of - 85 C. This causes unusual ice crystal clouds to form, usually in the artic circle. However, they are being seen as far south as Scotland.

Hi Linn.... Are you referring to Noctilucent Clouds? I've heard of the term but have zero knowledge of how it may or may not impact our weather. I have noticed over the last few years that they are starting to show up further south then normal. That's really all I know.

They are called Polar Stratospheric Clouds or PSC. There is a discussion in the archives on January 30, 2023 with pictures.

Thanks! I just read the article since I have never heard of this before. In addition, I also wonder what role the Tonga Volcanic eruption may be playing since a ton of water vapor was also injected into the stratosphere as well. It was the most significant eruption since Mt. Pinatubo back in the early 1990s.

Made it 34 briefly here. I'm with Tim, it was a beautiful sunny day with not much wind . Normals now are 41 and 23 at cvg. So slightly below norms for a few days as most of the Arctic cold will slip by to our north and NE

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:28 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:09 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:40 pm I have no idea what the effect is, but per Spaceweather.com the past few days, satellite measurements have seen temperatures in the stratosphere of - 85 C. This causes unusual ice crystal clouds to form, usually in the artic circle. However, they are being seen as far south as Scotland.

Hi Linn.... Are you referring to Noctilucent Clouds? I've heard of the term but have zero knowledge of how it may or may not impact our weather. I have noticed over the last few years that they are starting to show up further south then normal. That's really all I know.

They are called Polar Stratospheric Clouds or PSC. There is a discussion in the archives on January 30, 2023 with pictures.

Thanks! I just read the article since I have never heard of this before. In addition, I also wonder what role the Tonga Volcanic eruption may be playing since a ton of water vapor was also injected into the stratosphere as well. It was the most significant eruption since Mt. Pinatubo back in the early 1990s.

I'll have to read this article, I remember Rich A back in the day talking about something like this and having something to do with solar minimums. We just came out of a solar min and it may be a lag effect.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:58 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:51 pm Hey the cmc is trying to give us some hope. Think it's time to schedule a quick vacation. Looked for next week already and the rooms are all booked at the place we normally stay. canadian 240.png

Hey JP! Models are trying to cook something up around Day 10 but buyer beware. First of all it is Day 10 and second of all, I am skeptical of any snow and cold for the first half of the month due to reasons we've been talking about on here today and yesterday. Get a decent look inside of Day 5 then I'll be more interested.

I agree. with what you say. Let's see if the cmc sniffs this out. lol

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:28 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:09 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:40 pm I have no idea what the effect is, but per Spaceweather.com the past few days, satellite measurements have seen temperatures in the stratosphere of - 85 C. This causes unusual ice crystal clouds to form, usually in the artic circle. However, they are being seen as far south as Scotland.

Hi Linn.... Are you referring to Noctilucent Clouds? I've heard of the term but have zero knowledge of how it may or may not impact our weather. I have noticed over the last few years that they are starting to show up further south then normal. That's really all I know.

They are called Polar Stratospheric Clouds or PSC. There is a discussion in the archives on January 30, 2023 with pictures.

Thanks! I just read the article since I have never heard of this before. In addition, I also wonder what role the Tonga Volcanic eruption may be playing since a ton of water vapor was also injected into the stratosphere as well. It was the most significant eruption since Mt. Pinatubo back in the early 1990s.

I'll have to read this article, I remember Rich A back in the day talking about something like this and having something to do with solar minimums. We just came out of a solar min and it may be a lag effect.

I think this is fairly common when the PV is in a weakened state as what occurred over the last week or so. Some of its super cooled air is released Into the lower latitudes

31 here today and at CVG. Two days in a row below freezing, That has been tough to do this winter lol Another night in the teens than we'll briefly warm up tomorrow into the 40+ range then fall again for Friday stuck in the 20s with possible AM flurries in a couple of spots. The teens for Sat morning then we warm up. Tues into Wed still looking like our next chance for rain.

18Z GFS has been hitting the sauce tonight with a long duration snowfall event come mid Feb. Only 2 short weeks away! This is for CVG... I'd pay to see this pan out, even though I know it won't.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 6:23 pm 18Z GFS has been hitting the sauce tonight with a long duration snowfall event come mid Feb. Only 2 short weeks away! This is for CVG... I'd pay to see this pan out, even though I know it won't.

Code: Select all

WED 12Z 15-FEB   0.3    -3.7    1015      94      96    0.03     550     538    
WED 18Z 15-FEB   0.7    -1.4    1011      99      91    0.37     548     539    
THU 00Z 16-FEB   0.8    -0.1    1009      99      88    0.02     546     539    
THU 06Z 16-FEB  -0.5    -0.1    1005      98      96    0.10     541     537    
THU 12Z 16-FEB  -4.3    -4.1    1010      94      96    0.62     540     533    
THU 18Z 16-FEB  -1.8    -4.9    1018      86      12    0.04     548     533  

Les keep the hope alive. Some good signs on the mjo side and hopefully this continues and we just end up with about a 5-7 day milder spell.

Current temps

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 01, 2023 7:39 pm Les keep the hope alive. Some good signs on the mjo side and hopefully this continues and we just end up with about a 5-7 day milder spell.

We'll see Tim. Just not holding my breath since it's so far away in time. But to be fair and objective, the EPS in the Day 10-12 period does show a +PNA spike, so if you get the +PNA spike to be in the right position along with a well timed shortwave then we'd have something to work with. We'll see! Feb 10-15th is just starting to maybe, just maybe, get that keep your one eye open look.

Looks like Phil will see his shadow. I think it time to change the results of Phil's prognostication to 6 more weeks of occasional cool downs between big warm ups

19 here this morning. No changes for the next week as far as I'm concerned. We have that small flurry chance tomorrow and a cold day but we quickly warm back up. 50 may even return by Sunday now! Monday looks great. Rain comes in either late Tues or Wed of next week. This is a weaker frontal system with no cold air behind it at all. The stronger front is still scheduled towards the end of next week.

Good Morning and it seems like everyday is Groundhog day this winter. Even though we have not had the best winter in terms of snow and cold at least the Concordia weather station in Antarctica is having a great summer with the lowest temp ever in January of -60 f. No wonder the winter is bad around here when the south pole is stealing the cold.

Good ole Bill Murray! No I don't need a 24 hour marathon of it, just watch it once on Ground Hog's Day is enough for me.

So anyway, let's keep an eye on that PNA spike I mentioned as we approach mid month to see if we can get a well timed short wave to go along with it for snow lovers. Otherwise, the pattern will become more active for rain next week. The roads sure could use a rinsing that is for sure. There is more white on them versus what is on my grass!

Phil saw it. 6 more weeks of this brutally cold and snow filled winter ! yikes. but anyways on a more serious note his prediction will probably be not too far off meaning a delayed spring. will probably see some bouts of cold and snow in March and April this year in fact if not sooner we may see what winter looks like around donut day or so, give it a couple weeks February may not be a total bust.

Other then a brief window between 2/10-2/15 with that next cold shot, the GFS warms us right back up again with more Cutters and potential t-storm events. February maybe a stormy month versus a white one the way it is currently looking. It makes sense due to the MJO progression through the warmer phases (Maritime Continent) . GEFS agrees and doesn't look particularly snowy either. Wed of next week per the Euro continues to have a stormy look as well.

Good Afternoon and getting ready for the really cold shot coming in overnight but will be mostly out of here by late Saturday. Next week looks like temps will probably be in the the range of 45-55 most days and looks to get rather wet but I see no severe weather at all. Just not the correct conditions in our area for that to happen. Then we see if the pattern changes back towards the middle of the month.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:00 pm Good Afternoon and getting ready for the really cold shot coming in overnight but will be mostly out of here by late Saturday. Next week looks like temps will probably be in the the range of 45-55 most days and looks to get rather wet but I see no severe weather at all. Just not the correct conditions in our area for that to happen. Then we see if the pattern changes back towards the middle of the month.

If the system for next week is delayed until Wednesday, then I think 60 is reachable on Tuesday ahead of it for CVG.

Has anyone ever seen Trev and Punxsutawney Phil at the same time? Are they one in the same? They both hate winter and you have to practically physically drag both out of their cozy little dens. Just a thought.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:35 pm Has anyone ever seen Trev and Punxsutawney Phil at the same time? Are they one in the same? They both hate winter and you have to practically physically drag both out of their cozy little dens. Just a thought.

I wish I knew how to photoshop. It would be funny as hell to put Trev's head on Phil's body.