Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:45 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:40 pm Something is wrong Les for that big of a change. I saw where the mjo shows a move towards the cod like you mentioned earlier but that should not have that big of a change in the surface maps. Lets see those maps on Tuesday and compare to what they show today.

I agree. The MJO won't have any impact on this system. The MJO is more for pattern recognition. Sometimes it assists with a certain pattern and at other times, it destructs a type of pattern and causes it to change. It doesn't really impact individual storm systems in my opinion. But anyway, something strange for sure with the Euro's data this afternoon.

Going to blame it on China

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:45 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:40 pm Something is wrong Les for that big of a change. I saw where the mjo shows a move towards the cod like you mentioned earlier but that should not have that big of a change in the surface maps. Lets see those maps on Tuesday and compare to what they show today.

I agree. The MJO won't have any impact on this system. The MJO is more for pattern recognition. Sometimes it assists with a certain pattern and at other times, it destructs a type of pattern and causes it to change. It doesn't really impact individual storm systems in my opinion. But anyway, something strange for sure with the Euro's data this afternoon.

Going to blame it on China

I'll take Putin for $1000, Alex!

The EPS eventually does what the Euro did. The only thing that I believe is correct is the banana high and you can clearly pick that out on this image. It's strength and position is not set in stone right now of course, but I can buy the banana high coming to fruition because it's been showing up on most of the models for a while now which is why you see the slow movement once it gets to the East Coast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:51 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:45 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:40 pm Something is wrong Les for that big of a change. I saw where the mjo shows a move towards the cod like you mentioned earlier but that should not have that big of a change in the surface maps. Lets see those maps on Tuesday and compare to what they show today.

I agree. The MJO won't have any impact on this system. The MJO is more for pattern recognition. Sometimes it assists with a certain pattern and at other times, it destructs a type of pattern and causes it to change. It doesn't really impact individual storm systems in my opinion. But anyway, something strange for sure with the Euro's data this afternoon.

Going to blame it on China

I'll take Putin for $1000, Alex!

The EPS eventually does what the Euro did. The only thing that I believe is correct is the banana high and you can clearly pick that out on this image. It's strength and position is not set in stone right now of course, but I can buy the banana high coming to fruition because it's been showing up on most of the models for a while now which is why you see the slow movement once it gets to the East Coast.

Wow, I would love to see EC storm another 200 miles west. Really hoping on this phasing earlier further southward and that banana high stronger for a big dawg for us. Just dreaming! Lol

Looking further out could that be a clipper pattern developing on the 12 GFS? You can tell I'm bored with this current pattern!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:11 pm Wow, I would love to see EC storm another 200 miles west. Really hoping on this phasing earlier further southward and that banana high stronger for a big dawg for us. Just dreaming! Lol

Looking further out could that be a clipper pattern developing on the 12 GFS? You can tell I'm bored with this current pattern!

Hey Joe! Hope all is well! I do a lot of big dog dreaming too as you are well aware! I'm not bored with the current pattern but not happy about it all the same. Not much we can do but keep on doing what we do! Still a lot of winter to go. Not even half way yet (although we will be there by this time next week. LOL!)

Anyway... There are improvements to the pattern after the 20th. Until then... we've gotta thread the needle!

18Z GFS for the end of next week system of course brings in rain but as the low tracks into Eastern OH it weakens and transfers its energy to the EC Low. A decent thumping of backend snow on this run for next Fri night into Sat morning.

18Z GEFS is a touch weaker / South vs 12Z GEFS. As it stands right now, rain next Friday then a possible changeover to snow Fri night into Sat then ending.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:46 pm 18Z GEFS is a touch weaker / South vs 12Z GEFS. As it stands right now, rain next Friday then a possible changeover to snow Fri night into Sat then ending.

Les still a long ways for this system and still believe the models are too warm. We have plenty of time and lets hope for the best

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:46 pm 18Z GEFS is a touch weaker / South vs 12Z GEFS. As it stands right now, rain next Friday then a possible changeover to snow Fri night into Sat then ending.

Les still a long ways for this system and still believe the models are too warm. We have plenty of time and lets hope for the best

Absolutely Tim! As you know, what I said isn't a forecast but it is a good blend of the current model data. Can it get colder or warmer than what has been posted here? Of course. Lots of time to go for sure. The early next week system, which doesn't impact us at this time, is a table setter in terms of a 50/50 Low for the end of next week system.

Latest mjo has it moving once again in phase 7 and not diving to the cod

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:26 pm Latest mjo has it moving once again in phase 7 and not diving to the cod

The Aussies make a pretty good case for the COD. Not saying they are right of course. We saw the other day how they were a day or two off with their calculations.

Good Morning and a somewhat normal January weekend in store. So what about the late week storm. Nice that we have a decent storm to follow and what chances do we have at seeing some snow. To get a decent storm of course we need pieces of energy plus a temp difference. Not a ton of cold air coming into the system and much of it will be with the upper system. This is usually a nice set up for the app mountains but this set up can also produce snow in our area. Way to early but I do like that the upper system looks rather potent from several days away and until we get maybe to Tuesday or so I am not sure we have placement or strength figured out. Les has been talking about the 50/50 low and I just don't know if its going to be there. Of course you can still get a nice system without that especially if you have a decent high in southeast Canada that slams on the brakes for the system or systems coming east. Many days to try and nail this one down and at this point rain looks likely probably by Friday as the system seems to be slowing down just a bit and then after that how do the pieces of energy get together. Interesting system imo and not the normal pattern where we see any snow so that makes it more fun to try and figure out.

Good morning all! The trend in the overnight guidance was to lose the 50/50 Low. If this is correct (and it may very well be) then we lose the Nor'Easter threat and gain more energy for us in terms of a stronger system. That's both good and bad. It's good with regards to moisture. That isn't going to be a problem. The lack of cold air is the problem. The track has to be correct for us to see snow. The 0Z GFS showed such a possibility. Yes it is a cutter into Indiana but the second low forms more inland over the Apps and that's the key for us to get that backside snowfall in the deformation zone with assistance from the upper low that Tim talked about. Rest of the OP models cut the low more towards Chicago and form the secondary low further East so we miss out on the back end snows. The GEFS still has the 50/50 Low and tracks the primary low towards us, then it weakens, forms the EC Low which tracks northeast off the coast and hammers New England with a snow storm. EPS has more spread in the low track but kind of is doing the same thing.

My early thoughts on this one is rain developing Thurs afternoon thru Friday. Fri night into Sat morning are we dry or do we get the right track on the secondary low for back end snows? Where the primary low tracks and where the secondary low forms are the two question marks for me.

I think the MJO is doing exacly what we thought it would do from weeks ago. Once it got near or into the dateline it would weaken , sniffing 8 or weakening in 8. That should still be enough to Kickstart a new 500mb pattern whatever the lag is 7+- days , slower than what all the big boy Mets predicted. It will be nice if the active phase re-emerges in the west Indian Ocean as modeled to keep the 500mb pattern change going in the right direction. Still think we stay in the stale average to above average temp air mass through the 21st. The last 10 days of the month hopefully can see some colder air start to march into Southern Canada and eventually into the lower 48.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:13 am I think the MJO is doing exacly what we thought it would do from weeks ago. Once it got near or into the dateline it would weaken , sniffing 8 or weakening in 8. That should still be enough to Kickstart a new 500mb pattern whatever the lag is 7+- days , slower than what all the big boy Mets predicted. It will be nice if the active phase re-emerges in the west Indian Ocean as modeled to keep the 500mb pattern change going in the right direction. Still think we stay in the stale average to above average temp air mass through the 21st. The last 10 days of the month hopefully can see some colder air start to march into Southern Canada and eventually into the lower 48.

Great post! MJO modeling is finally responding keeping the amplitude weak even if it comes back out into the West Indian Ocean. Agreed it's better then the alternative. My original call of the 15th is 100% too early and the 20th looks good to me as well for a possible better pattern lining up. Even if it gets delayed further, long range guidance like the CFS and Euro Weeklies are indicating late Jan and into Feb as a good looking pattern with plentiful cold air. That's been the overall trend in the last several winters. February has turned out to be our best month. We shall see if that continues this year.

the mjo is doing exactly what it did last winter. we always got close to the good phases but could never get into it and if we did it wouldnt last long and go back into a shit phase. honestly I am not expecting much of this winter , i have a sub par outlook. will probably end up like last year and less then half the seasonal avg snowfall

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:46 am the mjo is doing exactly what it did last winter. we always got close to the good phases but could never get into it and if we did it wouldnt last long and go back into a shit phase. honestly I am not expecting much of this winter , i have a sub par outlook. will probably end up like last year and less then half the seasonal avg snowfall

Not sure how your area did the last several Februarys but around here, it has been our best wintry month.

At CVG:

Feb 2022 - 4.8"
Feb 2021 - 21.9" (second snowiest Feb on record)
Feb 2020 - 4.8"

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:56 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:43 am yep the winter is a stinker so far but that's still not a reason to lose hope if you want snow anyways. even in bad winters you normally get a window to open up where you can score. back in 16' we had a stinker but then had a period of arctic air move in right around mid Jan and then less then a week later we had a blizzard. the rest of that winter was pretty much a stinker just like it started. the fact that its been since 08' for your area tells me a big dawg is def on the table at some point this winter.

Thanks Charles! I'd love to see this system be a Miller A. Rain to back end deformation snows for us, then the Coastal Low gets you. We haven't had one of those systems that delivers snow to both of our areas in a very long time. We know Jan 1996 was one of those times. There's been others of course too, but it is very rare no doubt about it. In Feb of 2021, I received a localized 10" snowfall (that happened right before our old forum crashed) but a forum wide dumping like that... you're correct it was March of 2008. It's been a long, long time!

speaking of which this is the day it started 27 years ago. I could tell you quite a bit about how things were during that storm. I know I spent a lot of time watching TWC and the "local on the 8s" and being stunned every time the red screen of death came on and issued the blizzard warning. its been 6 years since the last blizzard and 2 years since last major snowstorm . not expecting much this year but maybe this is your year for a biggie , i hope so anyways

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:56 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:43 am yep the winter is a stinker so far but that's still not a reason to lose hope if you want snow anyways. even in bad winters you normally get a window to open up where you can score. back in 16' we had a stinker but then had a period of arctic air move in right around mid Jan and then less then a week later we had a blizzard. the rest of that winter was pretty much a stinker just like it started. the fact that its been since 08' for your area tells me a big dawg is def on the table at some point this winter.

Thanks Charles! I'd love to see this system be a Miller A. Rain to back end deformation snows for us, then the Coastal Low gets you. We haven't had one of those systems that delivers snow to both of our areas in a very long time. We know Jan 1996 was one of those times. There's been others of course too, but it is very rare no doubt about it. In Feb of 2021, I received a localized 10" snowfall (that happened right before our old forum crashed) but a forum wide dumping like that... you're correct it was March of 2008. It's been a long, long time!

speaking of which this is the day it started 27 years ago. I could tell you quite a bit about how things were during that storm. I know I spent a lot of time watching TWC and the "local on the 8s" and being stunned every time the red screen of death came on and issued the blizzard warning. its been 6 years since the last blizzard and 2 years since last major snowstorm . not expecting much this year but maybe this is your year for a biggie , i hope so anyways

Thanks! I hope so too for both of our areas. It's been tough!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:58 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:46 am the mjo is doing exactly what it did last winter. we always got close to the good phases but could never get into it and if we did it wouldnt last long and go back into a shit phase. honestly I am not expecting much of this winter , i have a sub par outlook. will probably end up like last year and less then half the seasonal avg snowfall

Not sure how your area did the last several Februarys but around here, it has been our best wintry month.

At CVG:

Feb 2022 - 4.8"
Feb 2021 - 21.9" (second snowiest Feb on record)
Feb 2020 - 4.8"

for me
Feb 20 .5"
Feb21 42"
Feb22 5"

For the end of next week... No change from the 12Z GFS. Still a cutter with the secondary low forming way too far East for us in terms of backside snows. Not much in the way of backside snows period minus a few spots in the Apps, N Maine and SE Canada. Welcome to La Nino!

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:10 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:58 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:46 am the mjo is doing exactly what it did last winter. we always got close to the good phases but could never get into it and if we did it wouldnt last long and go back into a shit phase. honestly I am not expecting much of this winter , i have a sub par outlook. will probably end up like last year and less then half the seasonal avg snowfall

Not sure how your area did the last several Februarys but around here, it has been our best wintry month.

At CVG:

Feb 2022 - 4.8"
Feb 2021 - 21.9" (second snowiest Feb on record)
Feb 2020 - 4.8"

for me
Feb 20 .5"
Feb21 42"
Feb22 5"

We have similar trends it appears.

12Z CMC is a big ole rain storm for most minus the Apps. It may turn out to be an Apps Special. It's a possible solution at this range.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:26 am 12Z CMC is a big ole rain storm for most minus the Apps. It may turn out to be an Apps Special. It's a possible solution at this range.

Good Morning Les. Very possible and the upper system can have its own cold air plus the mountains can provide lift as well and that is why the mountains get tons of snow. Can we get some snow out of this and sure but again nothing to write home about at this moment. The pattern remains busy though and I agree the pattern change at mid-month looks to be slower than I thought so do we push it back to February. Not going that far yet and lets see how the next 3-5 days shake out around the world.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:26 am 12Z CMC is a big ole rain storm for most minus the Apps. It may turn out to be an Apps Special. It's a possible solution at this range.

Good Morning Les. Very possible and the upper system can have its own cold air plus the mountains can provide lift as well and that is why the mountains get tons of snow. Can we get some snow out of this and sure but again nothing to write home about at this moment. The pattern remains busy though and I agree the pattern change at mid-month looks to be slower than I thought so do we push it back to February. Not going that far yet and lets see how the next 3-5 days shake out around the world.

Hey Tim! I'm not pushing it back to Feb either. Still like the 20th give or take at this time. 12Z GEFS Mean tracks the low to about Lexington, Ky then does the transfer to the EC Low that moves offshore.

This system is starting to get into the UKIE's range and ending at 144 hours or Fri morning... the low is near Owensboro, KY. The model stops there.