Absolute Vorticity

Hey Les and the two things I have noticed early on with the nam compared to yesterday is the high to the northeast is not as strong and the low coming out of the Rockies is weaker. If this trend continues that is good new for us. Of course this is at hour 42 and once you get past hour 48 the nam gets goofy most of the time.

12Z NAM is definitely slower vs the 6Z run. Let's see how that impacts when the storm starts to blow up as well as low track.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:27 am 12Z NAM is definitely slower vs the 6Z run. Let's see how that impacts when the storm starts to blow up as well as low track.

Very interesting and most times you want the system to blow up early but in this case imo the later it blows up the more cold air works in here. That is because this cold air is so dense and heavy it bullies its way south. Okay looked at the nam through hour 48 and that is enough. I always have problems with the nam beyond this time period so I will wait to see the other model runs later today.

Well that was an interesting NAM run.

So NAM keeps us in the zero to +5 range all day Friday with wind chills of -20 and below! Yowzas!

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:40 am Well that was an interesting NAM run.

Looks bizarre to me. Would love to see that outcome, but I don't think it's right.

I thought we would see more wrap around snow too on this run but nope. It's almost like the NAM is back to the strong low / glorified arctic front idea we were seeing on the Euro and CMC like 7 or 8 days ago.

LOL, Nam just wiped out any heavy snow predictions for most of NOAA offices to our west

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:50 am LOL, Nam just wiped out any heavy snow predictions for most of NOAA offices to our west

I'm watching the meltdowns on AmWx from the Chicago Crew. Not quite as entertaining as the Mid Atlantic and I-95 Weenies that melted down several days ago, but It's still keeping me entertained all the same.

Nam shows .40"-. 50" qpf AFTER the front passes , that just aint happening

Snow Talk

Wind chills near -60 in parts of North Dakota now....

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:57 am Nam shows .40"-. 50" qpf AFTER the front passes , that just aint happening

0.35" at CVG... don't I wish.

All I can say as these trends have been going in the right direction, which makes me happy!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:05 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:57 am Nam shows .40"-. 50" qpf AFTER the front passes , that just aint happening

0.35" at CVG... don't I wish.

With its own solution , that just doesn't make sense. Not saying that under a different scenario that couldn't happen,, just not current NAM scenario

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:05 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:57 am Nam shows .40"-. 50" qpf AFTER the front passes , that just aint happening

0.35" at CVG... don't I wish.

With its own solution , that just doesn't make sense. Not saying that under a different scenario that couldn't happen,, just not current NAM scenario

Of course. I understood that logic.

12Z RGEM has a couple inches for Cincy and 3-4" in our NW counties in Indiana. Very little to the North and East of town due to the dry slot and track of the surface low.

EDIT: My apologizes, that was the 0Z run. Serves me right trying to post and work at the same time. 12z RGEM was actually better for all AV forum areas and shows a general 2-3" for most folks.

GFS must have had a nervous breakdown

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:58 am GFS must have had a nervous breakdown

It might be initializing finally on Pivotal Weather. Probably a ton of traffic on the NCEP servers.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:04 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:58 am GFS must have had a nervous breakdown

It might be initializing finally on Pivotal Weather. Probably a ton of traffic on the NCEP servers.

Yeah it just started updating on Pivotal - out to hr 6 at the moment.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:04 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:58 am GFS must have had a nervous breakdown

It might be initializing finally on Pivotal Weather. Probably a ton of traffic on the NCEP servers.

Yeah it just started updating on Pivotal - out to hr 6 at the moment.

Same with Tropical Tidbits.

CMC similar to EU track into central Indiana , but catapults it much quicker NE from there

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:13 am CMC similar to EU track into central Indiana , but catapults it much quicker NE from there

I don't think that this storm is going to move that quickly like the CMC shows. I don't buy the rocketing out of here look that the model is showing.

12Z GFS may come in fairly close to the 6Z run. We'll see in a couple more panels.