Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:48 am
I second this notion!
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December 2022 Weather Discussion
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Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:48 am
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:51 am
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:54 am
Wow, HIP-HIP HOORAY, For he's a jolly good felloooooooo..... HB Trev!! A gift is on its way, one size fits all.
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:02 am
Les please don't tell me this is April 1st and I missed the entire winter.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:34 am Wow... I just checked the CPC Super Ensemble analogs for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods. For the 6-10 day, December of 1976 came up twice #1 and #3 on the list of the top 10 analogs for the period. In the 8-14 day, December of 1976 came up 3 times! Hey Tim... paging Tim...
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:13 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:02 amLes please don't tell me this is April 1st and I missed the entire winter.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:34 am Wow... I just checked the CPC Super Ensemble analogs for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods. For the 6-10 day, December of 1976 came up twice #1 and #3 on the list of the top 10 analogs for the period. In the 8-14 day, December of 1976 came up 3 times! Hey Tim... paging Tim...
--- Nah, you're good! GEFS and EPS are in wonderful agreement in the extended range with the PNA becoming more neutral if not weakly positive. I'll go with neutral to play the normal conservative card. A strongly -EPO and -AO with a weakly -NAO. I just love seeing this combination and the position of the ridges look good with the EPO being more east based (but not too much) and the linkage across the top of both blocking ridges (EPO / NAO). If this advertised pattern comes to fruition and we don't score, I'll have to buy extra beer to cry in. Nothing in weather is a guarantee so it would be foolish to say that we are guaranteed a snow storm in this pattern. However at the same time, I believe the odds are increasing. I am see 2 maybe 3 potential windows from around 12/18 - 12/25. Can't ask for more then that on December the 9th!
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:15 am
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:30 am
Les I love the the PNA heading towards neutral or maybe slightly positive. This imo has been the one we really needed to change and each day the computer outcome is getting better and better.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:13 amtpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:02 amLes please don't tell me this is April 1st and I missed the entire winter.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:34 am Wow... I just checked the CPC Super Ensemble analogs for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods. For the 6-10 day, December of 1976 came up twice #1 and #3 on the list of the top 10 analogs for the period. In the 8-14 day, December of 1976 came up 3 times! Hey Tim... paging Tim...
GEFS and EPS are in wonderful agreement in the extended range with the PNA becoming more neutral if not weakly positive. I'll go with neutral to play the normal conservative card. A strongly -EPO and -AO with a weakly -NAO. I just love seeing this combination and the position of the ridges look good with the EPO being more east based (but not too much) and the linkage across the top of both blocking ridges (EPO / NAO). If this advertised pattern comes to fruition and we don't score, I'll have to buy extra beer to cry in. Nothing in weather is a guarantee so it would be foolish to say that we are guaranteed a snow storm in this pattern. However at the same time, I believe the odds are increasing. I am see 2 maybe 3 potential windows from around 12/18 - 12/25. Can't ask for more then that on December the 9th!
Concerning the December of 1976. Wow is a great word to describe that period. Of course that was during an El Nino but weak and I wonder if the current La Nina is fading and we know it takes time for models to catch up.
Going to see snow in the northern and central plains next week which is very helpful as well. To many things look good starting next Friday and trying to figure out what I am missing that could destroy the pattern lol
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:31 am
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:36 am
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:48 am
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:55 am
Two hail Mary's and one Our Father did the trick
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:18 am
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:40 am
12Z GFS has the "wall of rain" moving in for rush hour Wed morning of next week. Could be a tough commute with moderate to heavy rain across the area should this model run be correct. We will of course be tweaking the forecast thru the weekend for next week as more data rolls in. This run gives CVG about 1.5" of rain so that is right inline with the 1-2" call I've had for a couple of days now. I'll continue to roll with it. Then we get the dry slot Wed night into Thurs then snow showers with the upper low for Friday into Saturday. My confidence is growing with this idea for how next week shapes up. We shall see because we have to get this right and see the impacts of the new pattern so we can get the future systems coming in from the SW correct once the trough and cold air is in place.
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:56 am
Now the GFS doesn't form the big Nor- Easter on this run as it has in previous runs. 12Z CMC still has the strong storm idea for New England. To me this is important. We want the bigger storm idea to send the colder air further south for the next system to work with. A weaker system would not drive the cold air as far to the south. Just something to watch for trends this weekend.
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 12:45 pm
This once again is the new gfs being the old gfs. Moves energy so quickly and with a strong negative NAO next week a big storm should form on the east coast. So with the new pattern two major things we will watch and that is the gfs way to fast with systems and the Euro holding to much energy back in the southwest. Give credit to the CMC as it has led the way with the new pattern and has not waffled much at all. The CMC tends to find 2 or 3 systems and 1 pattern change a winter season but when systems get closer to happening that model tends to have problems. Not sure why but so make it 3 things we need to watch with the new pattern.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:40 am 12Z GFS has the "wall of rain" moving in for rush hour Wed morning of next week. Could be a tough commute with moderate to heavy rain across the area should this model run be correct. We will of course be tweaking the forecast thru the weekend for next week as more data rolls in. This run gives CVG about 1.5" of rain so that is right inline with the 1-2" call I've had for a couple of days now. I'll continue to roll with it. Then we get the dry slot Wed night into Thurs then snow showers with the upper low for Friday into Saturday. My confidence is growing with this idea for how next week shapes up. We shall see because we have to get this right and see the impacts of the new pattern so we can get the future systems coming in from the SW correct once the trough and cold air is in place.
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:21 pm
For the possuble east coast storm next weekend, it all depends which model has the west coast correct. The GFS has a kicker system on the coast which pushes the ridge into the plains and no east coast storm, CMC has no kicker energy and the ridge is in the rockies, hence an east coast storm
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:34 pm
No doubt I will take the hot hand of the cmc. We will see later what the Euro has cooked up for late next week. If the NAO is truly as negative as the models show east coast storm is very likely. Gfs again probably way to fast with systems across the USA and even ones out in the pacific ocean.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:21 pm For the possuble east coast storm next weekend, it all depends which model has the west coast correct. The GFS has a kicker system on the coast which pushes the ridge into the plains and no east coast storm, CMC has no kicker energy and the ridge is in the rockies, hence an east coast storm
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:38 pm
Even without the east coast storm the GFS had cold air heading very far south. In my opinion, beyond about 5 days the model is useless right now. I'm sticking with the Euro and CMC for the medium range. This update to the GFS has seemingly made it even worse, if that was even possible.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:56 am Now the GFS doesn't form the big Nor- Easter on this run as it has in previous runs. 12Z CMC still has the strong storm idea for New England. To me this is important. We want the bigger storm idea to send the colder air further south for the next system to work with. A weaker system would not drive the cold air as far to the south. Just something to watch for trends this weekend.
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:46 pm
Great post Bgoney and upon further inspection, since the CMC has no kicker system you get a brief PNA spike or a brief relaxation of the persistent -PNA. I also agree with you Tim that the GFS's timing is probably wrong with the wave spacing. If it's too fast then the run we just saw is no doubt incorrect. I checked the individual GEFS members and they are literally split between the two ideas. 12Z Euro looks to have the Coastal storm on this run. Pretty strong too!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:34 pmNo doubt I will take the hot hand of the cmc. We will see later what the Euro has cooked up for late next week. If the NAO is truly as negative as the models show east coast storm is very likely. Gfs again probably way to fast with systems across the USA and even ones out in the pacific ocean.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:21 pm For the possuble east coast storm next weekend, it all depends which model has the west coast correct. The GFS has a kicker system on the coast which pushes the ridge into the plains and no east coast storm, CMC has no kicker energy and the ridge is in the rockies, hence an east coast storm
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:48 pm
Oh without a doubt Doug... the model has been awful beyond 5 days. There's no question about it. Agree with using the foreign models as well as ensembles. EPS has been more consistent vs the GEFS. Even the Canadian Ensemble (GEPS) also has been consistent (although I do think they have been overdone on the intensity of the cold).dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:38 pmEven without the east coast storm the GFS had cold air heading very far south. In my opinion, beyond about 5 days the model is useless right now. I'm sticking with the Euro and CMC for the medium range. This update to the GFS has seemingly made it even worse, if that was even possible.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:56 am Now the GFS doesn't form the big Nor- Easter on this run as it has in previous runs. 12Z CMC still has the strong storm idea for New England. To me this is important. We want the bigger storm idea to send the colder air further south for the next system to work with. A weaker system would not drive the cold air as far to the south. Just something to watch for trends this weekend.
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:53 pm
Rainfall wise for Wed... the Euro only has around 3/4" at CVG which is below my forecasted range. Not changing my rainfall amounts call unless we see the QPF reduced from other guidance over the weekend.
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:54 pm
Les you mentioned I believe yesterday how strong the high would be in the Rockies later next week and you can see a big difference between the Euro and GFS. I believe the Euro has a better shot of being correct and what this also does is systems coming in from the pacific must go over the ridge or come underneath and if you ever get the two to meet watch out. I have no ideal which model has performed better with the set up next week but both the CMC and Euro imo is seeing the pattern I see. If I miss the pattern then most likely I will miss the forecast for later next week.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:46 pmGreat post Bgoney and upon further inspection, since the CMC has no kicker system you get a brief PNA spike or a brief relaxation of the persistent -PNA. I also agree with you Tim that the GFS's timing is probably wrong with the wave spacing. If it's too fast then the run we just saw is no doubt incorrect. I checked the individual GEFS members and they are literally split between the two ideas. 12Z Euro looks to have the Coastal storm on this run. Pretty strong too!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:34 pmNo doubt I will take the hot hand of the cmc. We will see later what the Euro has cooked up for late next week. If the NAO is truly as negative as the models show east coast storm is very likely. Gfs again probably way to fast with systems across the USA and even ones out in the pacific ocean.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:21 pm For the possuble east coast storm next weekend, it all depends which model has the west coast correct. The GFS has a kicker system on the coast which pushes the ridge into the plains and no east coast storm, CMC has no kicker energy and the ridge is in the rockies, hence an east coast storm
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:56 pm
Les I went lower and again my reasoning is the storms in the south could end up robbing us of some moisture on Wednesday so I went with the .5-1.0. Again I could change next week but at the moment that is how I see this playing out.
Re: December 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:01 pm
We are def on the same page here. I'm also siding with the foreign models at this point. It really make sense with the pattern and the big time blocking. Just a matter of timing as usual so we'll see which solution ends up right over the weekend or by early next week at the latest. An occluding low which transfers its energy to an EC Low make sense with this set up. Do we get that temp PNA spike so the Nor Easter can develop is the question. I say yes at this time.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:54 pmLes you mentioned I believe yesterday how strong the high would be in the Rockies later next week and you can see a big difference between the Euro and GFS. I believe the Euro has a better shot of being correct and what this also does is systems coming in from the pacific must go over the ridge or come underneath and if you ever get the two to meet watch out. I have no ideal which model has performed better with the set up next week but both the CMC and Euro imo is seeing the pattern I see. If I miss the pattern then most likely I will miss the forecast for later next week.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:46 pmGreat post Bgoney and upon further inspection, since the CMC has no kicker system you get a brief PNA spike or a brief relaxation of the persistent -PNA. I also agree with you Tim that the GFS's timing is probably wrong with the wave spacing. If it's too fast then the run we just saw is no doubt incorrect. I checked the individual GEFS members and they are literally split between the two ideas. 12Z Euro looks to have the Coastal storm on this run. Pretty strong too!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:34 pmNo doubt I will take the hot hand of the cmc. We will see later what the Euro has cooked up for late next week. If the NAO is truly as negative as the models show east coast storm is very likely. Gfs again probably way to fast with systems across the USA and even ones out in the pacific ocean.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:21 pm For the possuble east coast storm next weekend, it all depends which model has the west coast correct. The GFS has a kicker system on the coast which pushes the ridge into the plains and no east coast storm, CMC has no kicker energy and the ridge is in the rockies, hence an east coast storm