Absolute Vorticity

Atm,, I agree. No changes with my thoughts and appreciable rains, until we get a neighboring low pressure to go along with these cold fronts , meager amounts can be expected

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:12 pm Atm,, I agree. No changes with my thoughts and appreciable rains, until we get a neighboring low pressure to go along with these cold fronts , meager amounts can be expected

Hey guys and I guess the problem I see is the low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Looks odd and may be correct but I believe that is key to getting some decent rains. I still believe the western GOM will be sending up tons of moisture and probably more than the models see and like we see with many systems in the winter its not the first one that we worry about so much but a second one that could develop over the southern plains and move this way later in the week. Only time will tell and if the High in the Atlantic Ocean is really strong it does put up a road block and I do understand that portion but the I am just not sold on the low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. I love these kind of forecasts because they are not always easy and that is good sense the last 6 weeks or so have been about as the easy as it comes to forecasting.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:12 pm Atm,, I agree. No changes with my thoughts and appreciable rains, until we get a neighboring low pressure to go along with these cold fronts , meager amounts can be expected

Exactly. Drought begets drought as the old saying goes. It'll be temporary as it usually is around here but it'll be a while longer before we're out of it.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:25 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:12 pm Atm,, I agree. No changes with my thoughts and appreciable rains, until we get a neighboring low pressure to go along with these cold fronts , meager amounts can be expected

Hey guys and I guess the problem I see is the low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Looks odd and may be correct but I believe that is key to getting some decent rains. I still believe the western GOM will be sending up tons of moisture and probably more than the models see and like we see with many systems in the winter its not the first one that we worry about so much but a second one that could develop over the southern plains and move this way later in the week. Only time will tell and if the High in the Atlantic Ocean is really strong it does put up a road block and I do understand that portion but the I am just not sold on the low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. I love these kind of forecasts because they are not always easy and that is good sense the last 6 weeks or so have been about as the easy as it comes to forecasting.

The issue is that we're not in a favorable pattern for phasing systems. We need to get the amp'ed pattern back. With us being so dry, the -PNA we are going into will keep ridging over us with the warm up coming as we all know, but to get a nice storm to go with it next week, is going to be tough. The better rains will fall to our West. That ocean low looks to stay well east of us. The northern low is over SW Canada and the S Low may miss us to the south so we're in between all of the pieces of energy so lighter totals are expected. If the jet stream was in a different configuration for next week... that odd ball GFS solution from a few days ago would have a lot more merit. It's just not going to happen fort next week another then a cold frontal passage and light rains to go with it. Something can change sure, it's in that 4-7 days out range. But for right now... things just look tough.

One thing I agree with is if the PNA really goes negative then much harder to get some decent rains. Just not sure yet about that outcome but in a few days hopefully that part of the puzzle will help out. The models really never saw the extent of the current cold wave until about 5 days in advance so I always am a little hesitant to agree completely but I am the guy who states get off the lawn lol. Really I am not like that at all but always fun to act like an old man once in awhile.

Les no doubt the comment about drought breeds drought is always in play and even more so in the summer. I guess the problem is we have drought in the west as well and does it revert back to that area. Interesting forecast and I agree about the first front not bringing in much rainfall but its later in the week is where I see a much better shot. The drought may win out and we get very little rain later next week but just sort of want to see the set up once we get closer the first front early in the week.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:40 pm Les no doubt the comment about drought breeds drought is always in play and even more so in the summer. I guess the problem is we have drought in the west as well and does it revert back to that area. Interesting forecast and I agree about the first front not bringing in much rainfall but its later in the week is where I see a much better shot. The drought may win out and we get very little rain later next week but just sort of want to see the set up once we get closer the first front early in the week.

My early Guess Tim on how long the -PNA lasts will be thru Week 1 in November. I maybe too fast on that. Might last till mid month. Second half of November, should have a much colder look to it. That is kind of how I currently see the long term going. Could easily be wrong, but that's my early guess.

I do think the +PNA returns to the West. We'll see when once we get closer but I honestly don't see a raging -PNA like we had last December. My goodness... that was horrible.

In addition to the freeze warning for tonight... we also have a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow due to gusty winds and a dry airmass. I would not burn any leaves or brush at this time.


...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 050 Wayne, Fire Weather Zone
058 Fayette IN, Fire Weather Zone 059 Union IN, Fire Weather
Zone 066 Franklin IN, Fire Weather Zone 073 Ripley, Fire
Weather Zone 074 Dearborn, Fire Weather Zone 075 Ohio, Fire
Weather Zone 080 Switzerland, Fire Weather Zone 089 Carroll,
Fire Weather Zone 090 Gallatin, Fire Weather Zone 091 Boone,
Fire Weather Zone 092 Kenton, Fire Weather Zone 093 Campbell,
Fire Weather Zone 094 Owen, Fire Weather Zone 095 Grant and
Fire Weather Zone 096 Pendleton.

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

29 right now IMBY... the growing season is officially over here! 30 as of 7am at CVG. How low did you all go?

Let's also wish a very happy birthday to fyrfyter! Aaron is one of our admins and tech gurus who was a monster help in getting us back up and running after the old forum crashed. Thanks Aaron for all you do for us here at AV.

CVG was also able to slip down to 29.

Everyone by now knows about the warm up that is coming our way so we'll focus our attn to our next cold front. Going to go ahead and introduce chance POPS into the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday. Depending on timing... we may need to remove Mon night and add in early Wed morning for an exit time. We can adjust that later. Also... continuing to keep rain amounts on the low side and you guys know those reasons already.

Down to the freezing mark here.

Hit 30 this morning but again no frost. The ground is so dry and unable to form frost. Will warm up some today but the wind will make it feel colder and it seems more like a mid-March day. Fri-Sun and maybe Monday the weather looks great and will feel just like spring. Still working on next week and do we see one system or two and I believe 2 is the way to go but will do more homework today.

28 here..

Tim... great post with regards to the lack of frost despite the temps. A had a few patches of frost here, but the lack of ground moisture and the dry low levels were absolutely the cause. Great observation!!

For next week... I'm continuing the 1 system deal with a weakening line coming in with the front. Just my early guess and the timing of the front once we get closer, will make rainfall amounts much easier to predict. For now, keeping things low due to the antecedent dry conditions we've got going into the event.

Mjr wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:37 am28 here..

Some of the coldest temps I could find in the OV was 21 for a low in Monticello, KY. Crawfordsville, IN at 24. For Ohio, 23 at KHAO!

BG Tweeted out the update drought map and everyone is either at D0 or D1 conditions.

I suppose it’s time to let y’all know that I am moving to Lebanon as that is where my girlfriend and her kids reside! Very excited for the future! Hello Warren Co!

Any Lebanon members on here?

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:48 am I suppose it’s time to let y’all know that I am moving to Lebanon as that is where my girlfriend and her kids reside! Very excited for the future! Hello Warren Co!

Any Lebanon members on here?

Awesome! Your avg snowfall may increase by a couple of inches now.

A lot of low clouds now moving in with a weak disturbance. No precip is expected due to a bone dry airmass. PWATS are like at 0.4" with 20 degree dews. We shall see how it impacts temps this afternoon. We should make it into the 50s on good southerly flow but without some sun, we should not hit 60 at all. Could be in the low to mid 50s for highs should we stay overcast the rest of the day.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:51 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:48 am I suppose it’s time to let y’all know that I am moving to Lebanon as that is where my girlfriend and her kids reside! Very excited for the future! Hello Warren Co!

Any Lebanon members on here?

Awesome! Your avg snowfall may increase by a couple of inches now.

Oh believe me I already have thought about that

Also maybe should let City Hall to have extra resources to in place considering I’m a severe thunderstorm and tornado magnet

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:51 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:48 am I suppose it’s time to let y’all know that I am moving to Lebanon as that is where my girlfriend and her kids reside! Very excited for the future! Hello Warren Co!

Any Lebanon members on here?

Awesome! Your avg snowfall may increase by a couple of inches now.

Oh believe me I already have thought about that

Also maybe should let City Hall to have extra resources to in place considering I’m a severe thunderstorm and tornado magnet

When my Brother lived up that way, he typically got much more snow and severe wx then we get down here. Hopefully your g/f and her kids can handle this.

Les has me looking at the models this week and if I am correct they are keeping the cold front about 24-36 hours slower than before. Does this mean more rain,less rain or no rain. I am still on the 2 cold front train but seems the models are going that way but the timing is off and quite a bit off. Unable to get the Euro and maybe Les can talk about that model since its offline on the sources I have looked at this morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:59 am BG Tweeted out the update drought map and everyone is either at D0 or D1 conditions.


DroughtCity.jpg

That's about as widespread as I've seen for our region in quite a while. WATER THOSE EVERGREENS!!!!!!