Absolute Vorticity

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Got to 92 in DAY on Mon.

Currently 77 here in G'ville.

Isolated pop-ups this morning Into early afternoon. Then late afternoon into evening looks a lot like Saturday's action , with a skinny corridor of repeated rounds of t-showers and heavy rain and outside of that area more Isolated pop-ups. No way of pinpointing where that corridor will be until it happens

Not everyone sees precip much like Saturday , 30 to 40% chance region wide

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 5:39 am Isolated pop-ups this morning Into early afternoon. Then late afternoon into evening looks a lot like Saturday's action , with a skinny corridor of repeated rounds of t-showers and heavy rain and outside of that area more Isolated pop-ups. No way of pinpointing where that corridor will be until it happens

Not everyone sees precip much like Saturday , 30 to 40% chance region wide

Agreed. Some folks when this is done will see 0.10-0.50" range and others 2"+. I favor folks S of the river for the higher totals where the front stalls out for a bit on Wed before finally clearing the area.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 5:39 am Isolated pop-ups this morning Into early afternoon. Then late afternoon into evening looks a lot like Saturday's action , with a skinny corridor of repeated rounds of t-showers and heavy rain and outside of that area more Isolated pop-ups. No way of pinpointing where that corridor will be until it happens

Not everyone sees precip much like Saturday , 30 to 40% chance region wide

Good Morning and agree 100p/c. Hopefully some of the folks that got missed will get in on some of the action later today and Wednesday. I got enough where the lawn looks nice but not enough to say no more rain. Love to see an inch or so along with cooler temps and longer nights is just what the doctor ordered.

I'd be good with no rain from this system but that probably isn't going to be the case.

Up this way we could use the rain - I think especially for snowbo and Eric and folks north of 70 that have been mostly missed by the rains recently. I saw DAY has only had 0.52" this month. I could use some rain in my hood as well.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:58 am Up this way we could use the rain - I think especially for snowbo and Eric and folks north of 70 that have been mostly missed by the rains recently. I saw DAY has only had 0.52" this month. I could use some rain in my hood as well.

You guys are the ones who need it. Even CMH and JP had some decent rains a few weeks ago. Totally agree on Dayton area folks getting the shaft recently. Good luck to you all! A slight risk is out for folks S of I-70 unfortunately for excessive rainfall. A Marginal risk tomorrow near and S of the river.

Here is a nice visualization of the "haves" and "have nots"

Past 14 day precip anomaly:

From the boys:

Morning update...
Biggest changes this morning were to lower temperatures by a few
degrees across the frontal zone (west/central Ohio & eastern
Indiana) as considerable cloud cover is expected to linger
through the afternoon hours, limiting temperatures to the lower
70s. Much of the thunderstorm activity overnight has weakened
leaving behind scattered stratiform rain showers. No major
changes made to the previous forecast for this afternoon as
showers and thunderstorms redevelop with daytime heating.

HRRR has been totally useless throughout the morning with its hourly updates for the current clusters of heavy rains in the midwest. Expect that uselessness to continue for the forecast the rest of today

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:12 am Here is a nice visualization of the "haves" and "have nots"

Past 14 day precip anomaly:


hrap-all-ohio-14day_anom-9960000.png


hrap-all-ohio-14day_percent_anom-9960000.png

Great Map and you can see where Boone country and northern Kenton and Campbell got decent rains plus southern Kenton County but where I live its like a circle of dome as less than 1 inch in my backyard.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:31 am HRRR has been totally useless throughout the morning with its hourly updates for the current clusters of heavy rains in the midwest. Expect that uselessness to continue for the forecast the rest of today

Terrible in the past several weeks. Once in a full moon it hits but when you can't even so what is happening at the surface currently then I worry about the model in general.

I think the NAM has been doing better to be honest. 12Z run showing the scattered action with the front stalling over NKY for tomorrow. That fits my thoughts well.

You can see a nice instability gradient over the Tri-state. I like seeing that and I think we should see convection develop in this area later this afternoon. Convective temp at ILN is 85 degrees.

I think ILN will add Hamilton County and a portion of SEindiana to the watch

SE Indiana seeing some mod to locally hvy rains and a few isolated cells also for W. Hamilton and Butler co's. A few showers also NW of Dayton.

Good Afternoon and I see some folks especially in southwest Ohio got a little rain today. Models not doing well in this type of pattern so a more general forecast which means some folks will get some rain and other not so much. No way of knowing where these storms will pop up but two main chances. One is overnight when the LLJ gets a little stronger and this can be a focus of showers and thundershowers in the 4a-9a period. Then the timing of the front Wednesday afternoon will determine who gets hit later in the day. At this point folks further south have a better shot at some decent rains but a thundershower can pop up anywhere until the front passes. Does not look like we have quite the moisture content we had this past Thursday-Sunday but enough where some heavy rains can fall in a localized area and give those folks an inch or so. Everyone else may end up with little and in some cases no rainfall. The good thing is cooler and drier air will start to get in here later Thursday and last through at least Saturday and maybe a little longer. No true heat in the forecast which is great news.

Nothing here, just warm and humid. Couple of storms trying to push into Boone Co but they are small cells and very isolated. A little cluster over Dearborn Co in IN. Otherwise we are fairly quiet for this point in the day where we have peak heating.

My gauge has picked up a tenth from today for a combo of .40" from the past few days.

Currently 73 here in G'ville.

Most of the action is now along and S of the River for the most part. Still have not seen a drop here today, The Dome has been holding up.

We got a brief downpour this afternoon, around a tenth of an inch. And Eric, jealous of your 73 degrees.

Storms gathering to our SW moving slowly NE. Will they move into our Metro NKY counties or not? We shall see!