Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:18 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:57 am Good morning Tim! I like your thoughts on the coverage for this weekend. Looks like we are on the same page there. On this forum, Bgoney has done a great job with the ENSO updates and I think most of us on here are also in agreement with the Nina continuing for a while longer. I have no idea how the upcoming winter may go. I'm waiting to see how this Nina is going to behave as we progress thru the rest of summer.

Hey Les. I believe the one area of the weather and climate that causes more problems is the oceans. I believe we have just scratched the surface knowing everything happening and how it affects the weather and yes climate as well. Over the past ten years or so we have seen milder late fall and early winter but also colder late winter and early spring. Is this just a blip or something longer term. I have no ideal but again I know when forecasting later in November and December has been tougher because of a bias I have entrenched in my brain. Sometimes those are hard to get rid of no matter how hard you try.

It's funny... the old ways and methods of long range or seasonal forecasting aren't working quite as well as it used too so something def has changed in our climate puzzle. Some people argue AGW, but I like your thoughts. The seasons have shifted by about a month or so over the last 20 years. We are seeing the summer heat linger longer into Fall. Winters start later but last longer into Spring. It is taking spring longer to get started. We have to adapt and change our ways of forecasting if we're ever going to get it right.

And that is why some Tigers and Redlegs season openers can start out sleety, snowy or mixed bag.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:18 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:57 am Good morning Tim! I like your thoughts on the coverage for this weekend. Looks like we are on the same page there. On this forum, Bgoney has done a great job with the ENSO updates and I think most of us on here are also in agreement with the Nina continuing for a while longer. I have no idea how the upcoming winter may go. I'm waiting to see how this Nina is going to behave as we progress thru the rest of summer.

Hey Les. I believe the one area of the weather and climate that causes more problems is the oceans. I believe we have just scratched the surface knowing everything happening and how it affects the weather and yes climate as well. Over the past ten years or so we have seen milder late fall and early winter but also colder late winter and early spring. Is this just a blip or something longer term. I have no ideal but again I know when forecasting later in November and December has been tougher because of a bias I have entrenched in my brain. Sometimes those are hard to get rid of no matter how hard you try.

It's funny... the old ways and methods of long range or seasonal forecasting aren't working quite as well as it used too so something def has changed in our climate puzzle. Some people argue AGW, but I like your thoughts. The seasons have shifted by about a month or so over the last 20 years. We are seeing the summer heat linger longer into Fall. Winters start later but last longer into Spring. It is taking spring longer to get started. We have to adapt and change our ways of forecasting if we're ever going to get it right.

And that is why some Tigers and Redlegs season openers can start out sleety, snowy or mixed bag.

It's rarely ever sunny and 75. It's usually rainy or nasty and in some cases... my favorite! SNOW!

Not much happening with the radar up north and again the chances of anything breaking out were slim and getting closer to none. Will we get any rain before Sunday is still up in the air and does the batch shown by models to the northwest hit us late Friday or early Saturday. Still believe Sunday and Monday look good for a decent amount of rain for many folks. Front nearby and dew points on the rise and yes the added moisture from the gom. Again sometimes hard to get that moisture this far north without a true low to bring it northward but I believe the flow should be strong enough to have some extra moisture introduced to the pattern. After that we will see if the heat surges in or does the trough in the east hold a little tougher than what I thought would happen

I see little in the way of 90s over the next week, maybe 10 days. I am not saying it can't or won't occur but I do think the chances are low for a while longer. If we can get more storm chances, that would help keep temps in check but with the tropics not ready to play yet, it'll be tough.

12Z Euro tries to hold on to some light rain Sat morning for CVG, but I think it'll miss to the SW or fall apart before it gets here. I suppose I cannot totally toss this solution but I think our airmass will be too dry to support convection until Sunday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 2:11 pm 12Z Euro tries to hold on to some light rain Sat morning for CVG, but I think it'll miss to the SW or fall apart before it gets here. I suppose I cannot totally toss this solution but I think our airmass will be too dry to support convection until Sunday.

I agree Les and believe the rain will be over western Indiana and western Kentucky. Even there it should become lighter as it gets into those areas. Still believe we need to wait until Sunday though its summer and with increase humidity a pop up storm can happen but any widespread coverage not until then.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 2:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 2:11 pm 12Z Euro tries to hold on to some light rain Sat morning for CVG, but I think it'll miss to the SW or fall apart before it gets here. I suppose I cannot totally toss this solution but I think our airmass will be too dry to support convection until Sunday.

I agree Les and believe the rain will be over western Indiana and western Kentucky. Even there it should become lighter as it gets into those areas. Still believe we need to wait until Sunday though its summer and with increase humidity a pop up storm can happen but any widespread coverage not until then.

I'm on board with this Tim. Looks good!

Euro has some heavy rains 1-2" for Sun into Mon period. Wish it wasn't showing up on a model esp with it being only Tuesday.

BG 2pm Update:

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 2:52 pm Euro has some heavy rains 1-2" for Sun into Mon period. Wish it wasn't showing up on a model esp with it being only Tuesday.

Les the good thing its Wednesday.lol

EU is loving a shortwave rounding the big high in the NWflow for some beneficial rains Sunday/Monday. Agree , to early to expect widespread coverage but keeping fi gers crossed . Crops in the big fields out this way not looking to good. Corn is tasseling and its probably 3-4 feet shorter than what it should be and the soybeans are likewise much smaller

Is it going to rain? Radar looks like showers moving this way. Top is down in the Jeep…so…

Got a little ground wetter here. Sending the rest down Mike and Doug.

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:27 pm Got a little ground wetter here. Sending the rest down Mike and Doug.

Yes! Getting the tail end of the downpour here. Of course I just got through watering the plants lol

We'll see how long these storms can drop SE before falling apart. Good luck all, this is the secondary front that drops those dews nicely thru Sat.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 2:52 pm Euro has some heavy rains 1-2" for Sun into Mon period. Wish it wasn't showing up on a model esp with it being only Tuesday.

Les the good thing its Wednesday.lol

Whoopsie!

Just got a second downpour and now a third approaching! Was definitely not expecting this.

Got .15 in the gauge.

Downpour number three - think this is a record for my hood. LOL

Had an area of convection just north of Greenville that skirted as it was moving southeast.

Look forward to Sun-Mon.

Congrats to those who got some activity on Wed!

Congrats to those who got a little something. Nothing was expected down here and nothing is expected down here until Sunday/ Nice weather from now until then. Humidity and temps will be in check. Also... Good Morning and Happy Birthday to Tim! One of our loyal forum members, a good friend, and just a hell of a nice guy! Hope you have a great day today, Tim and thanks so much for being part of our forum for all these years!

So managed 0.55”! Definitely a prize when I wasn’t expecting anything. Dome took a vaca day.

Wow, HB to the one and only Timstradamus. Many more. Great day for golf, hit em high ,hit em long, and don't forget your foot wedge

Happy Birthday Tim!!!! Have a beer or two on me!! (And thanks for poking the hole in my dome yesterday)

I may have to offer up a 12 pack to the weather gods for Sunday in the hopes My Dome breaks.