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Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:24 pm
by chrisdeweese73
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:18 pm
chrisdeweese73 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:13 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:11 pm
Welcome to all new members! Looks like we've got a major winter storm to cover in a couple more days guys! Mainly rain for Wed but Wed night thru the day on Friday looking more and more interesting by the hour. Euro coming up soon! If it goes south then wow!
Not a new member but I had to switch email providers and lost access to reset my old password.....DrDestructo here! Hope everyone is well!
Ahhh! long time, no see Doc!! Hope you're ready to potentially make some coin finally! you should be on a nice spot per latest trends.
We shall see.....the trends look favorable!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:29 pm
by tron777
Wouldn't that be something if these south trends were real and / or continued and we got a lot of snow versus ice and sleet? Then we keep seeing more snow this month, etc. We made a run at the Feb 2010 spot last Feb, but the pattern crapped out on us plus the sleet fest really hurt us. If we avoid a huge icing at CVG with this event, can we make a run at #1 again? We'll see, but it is going to take snow with this system to get us off on the right foot. Ice storm or 2021 sleet fest will hurt those chances for monthly records.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:30 pm
by tron777
If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:31 pm
by BookNerdCarp
I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:34 pm
by tron777
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:31 pm
I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?
This is an overrunning set up. We're not dealing with a phasing system here or a strong low pressure center. An arctic boundary being pushed in via a strong Canadian High will interact with a frontal boundary and warm moist air from the Gulf. The warm air overruns the boundary and dumps ice, and snow in the cold air north of the frontal boundary. It will run from SW to NE and track towards the SE thru the area. Cold air undercuts the warm air coming in from the south. Very heavy precip makers without having a strong low so no warm tongue of death.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:34 pm
by Trevor
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:31 pm
I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?
Not having a strong low will lead to less in the way of strong WAA.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:40 pm
by Pete1
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:30 pm
If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!
Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:41 pm
by BookNerdCarp
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:34 pm
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:31 pm
I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?
This is an overrunning set up. We're not dealing with a phasing system here or a strong low pressure center. An arctic boundary being pushed in via a strong Canadian High will interact with a frontal boundary and warm moist air from the Gulf. The warm air overruns the boundary and dumps ice, and snow in the cold air north of the frontal boundary. It will run from SW to NE and track towards the SE thru the area. Cold air undercuts the warm air coming in from the south. Very heavy precip makers without having a strong low so no warm tongue of death.
Kind of what I thought but wasn't 100% sure. Gonna be a mess.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:42 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:30 pm
If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!
Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati
Wow! I'd be happy with less in the way of ice and more of a 4-8" or 6-10" type of thing. If your location can remain all snow a foot to a foot and a half of snow is certainly possible though. I'm really going to be surprised if we are mainly snow here. I don't think that is going to be the case. Not saying heavy snow is off the table, it isn't but the major ice and sleet risks are still there too. A long ways to go man lol
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:43 pm
by tron777
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:41 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:34 pm
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:31 pm
I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?
This is an overrunning set up. We're not dealing with a phasing system here or a strong low pressure center. An arctic boundary being pushed in via a strong Canadian High will interact with a frontal boundary and warm moist air from the Gulf. The warm air overruns the boundary and dumps ice, and snow in the cold air north of the frontal boundary. It will run from SW to NE and track towards the SE thru the area. Cold air undercuts the warm air coming in from the south. Very heavy precip makers without having a strong low so no warm tongue of death.
Kind of what I thought but wasn't 100% sure. Gonna be a mess.
It's going to be a mess everywhere to varying degrees Wed - Fri without a doubt.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:48 pm
by Pete1
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:42 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:30 pm
If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!
Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati
Wow! I'd be happy with less in the way of ice and more of a 4-8" or 6-10" type of thing. If your location can remain all snow a foot to a foot and a half of snow is certainly possible though. I'm really going to be surprised if we are mainly snow here. I don't think that is going to be the case. Not saying heavy snow is off the table, it isn't but the major ice and sleet risks are still there too. A long ways to go man lol
Sure wish I had Biffs Grays sports almanac at the start of football season. 125/1 odds to make the Super Bowl. A measly 100 dollars on the bengals to make the SuperBowl would have returned 12,500 dollars
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:49 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:42 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:30 pm
If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!
Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati
Wow! I'd be happy with less in the way of ice and more of a 4-8" or 6-10" type of thing. If your location can remain all snow a foot to a foot and a half of snow is certainly possible though. I'm really going to be surprised if we are mainly snow here. I don't think that is going to be the case. Not saying heavy snow is off the table, it isn't but the major ice and sleet risks are still there too. A long ways to go man lol
Sure wish I had Biffs Grays sports almanac at the start of football season. 125/1 odds to make the Super Bowl. A measly 100 dollars on the bengals to make the SuperBowl would have returned 12,500 dollars
Yeah. I could bet on the outcome of this winter storm too!
I want my own hotel and casino.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:54 pm
by Pete1
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:49 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:42 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:30 pm
If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!
Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati
Wow! I'd be happy with less in the way of ice and more of a 4-8" or 6-10" type of thing. If your location can remain all snow a foot to a foot and a half of snow is certainly possible though. I'm really going to be surprised if we are mainly snow here. I don't think that is going to be the case. Not saying heavy snow is off the table, it isn't but the major ice and sleet risks are still there too. A long ways to go man lol
Sure wish I had Biffs Grays sports almanac at the start of football season. 125/1 odds to make the Super Bowl. A measly 100 dollars on the bengals to make the SuperBowl would have returned 12,500 dollars
Yeah. I could bet on the outcome of this winter storm too!
I want my own hotel and casino.
We need to find Les’ almanac showing the outcome of all storms before they happen. Absolute vorticity would make world history as never getting a storm wrong.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:55 pm
by tron777
Euro is running, here we go!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:55 pm
by tron777
I love the idea lol
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:06 pm
by cincy bud
I am just praying that I am far enough north and west to avoid some of the ice
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:14 pm
by tron777
Euro so far looks very similar to 0Z.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:15 pm
by tron777
Looks like CVG changes from rain to ice around midday Thurs. Thurs morning for I-70 Crew.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:20 pm
by mainevilleweather
Go team GFS!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:22 pm
by tron777
To me, Euro continues to show a quicker exit and has less QPF over all. Still a respectable system though.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:25 pm
by tpweather
Not many changes to the Euro. Maybe just a tad south but not much but is a little slower so maybe a few more hours or precip on the back end.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:26 pm
by tron777
12Z Euro text data:
Code: Select all
CVG
THU 12Z 03-FEB 0.7 4.6 1019 98 66 0.30 563 548
THU 18Z 03-FEB -1.1 3.5 1017 97 98 0.65 563 550
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -3.8 1.0 1020 94 95 0.49 562 546
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -5.3 -2.8 1023 81 99 0.13 558 541
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -7.0 -6.4 1028 76 99 0.02 554 532
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -3.7 -8.3 1030 51 82 0.01 551 528
HAO
THU 12Z 03-FEB -0.5 3.8 1020 94 80 0.32 562 547
THU 18Z 03-FEB -1.6 2.5 1017 93 98 0.61 562 548
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.4 -0.3 1021 89 96 0.49 561 544
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -5.8 -3.6 1023 81 99 0.12 557 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.2 -6.7 1028 79 97 0.02 553 531
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -5.7 -8.5 1030 61 76 0.01 549 526
MGY
THU 12Z 03-FEB -1.2 3.3 1021 93 86 0.29 562 546
THU 18Z 03-FEB -2.2 2.4 1018 92 98 0.52 562 547
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.9 -0.7 1021 88 97 0.52 560 544
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.4 -3.9 1023 83 99 0.13 557 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.5 -6.8 1028 82 96 0.02 553 531
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -7.2 -8.7 1030 70 74 0.01 549 526
DAY
THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.3 2.2 1021 92 92 0.31 561 544
THU 18Z 03-FEB -3.1 1.6 1019 91 98 0.47 561 546
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -5.7 -1.7 1022 88 99 0.52 559 542
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.1 -4.5 1024 85 98 0.12 556 538
CMH
THU 12Z 03-FEB -0.3 3.5 1021 95 88 0.26 562 546
THU 18Z 03-FEB -0.7 3.7 1018 92 99 0.39 562 547
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -3.1 0.8 1019 91 100 0.69 561 546
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.0 -2.9 1021 85 100 0.22 558 541
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -7.7 -6.3 1026 82 98 0.05 553 533
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -6.4 -8.7 1028 70 83 0.01 548 526
FGX
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -0.5 5.7 1016 99 100 0.96 565 552
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -3.6 0.7 1021 95 98 0.36 562 546
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -5.2 -4.3 1026 80 100 0.08 558 538
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -3.7 -7.1 1028 64 96 0.02 554 532
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:27 pm
by snowbo
A little less QPF, especially around CVG. More in Indiana though.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:34 pm
by cloudy72
Euro says ice ice baby
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:34 pm
by Bgoney
My take on the EU is about an inch QPF north of 71 is frozen type , 71 south .50-75" is frozen type and our SE counties .25-50" frozen type , all considerably less than GFS frozen qPF