Absolute Vorticity

Good Evening. Concerning the mjo plots and though I have not followed Kyle's model like some folks have but I really have not seen anything to my liking on how the mjo seems to work. Sure it may work sometimes but what I can gather from his model is the mjo is always on the move and that is not how it works. I believe for the most part the last 3 weeks or so we have been in the COD and when that happens the last phase you left tends to be the kind of weather you will have but more of a tame version compared to a raging phase. I believe the Aussie model is correct and hanging in the 2/3 area and we are starting to see some pattern changes though slower than what the NWS is seeing. Yes we get mild next week but until I see more changes I believe the pattern comes back to more of a 3 days of colder than normal then warm up a day or 2 and then repeat. Will it become stormier and yes but we are getting closer to the rainy season which is normally late Feb until mid-July for us though we know around here it can rain anytime of the year.

That's what I said earlier also Tim... up and downs in Temps. We probably will get to Phase 4 eventually. 3 cold springs in a row would be awfully tough to achieve lol We'll see, but I think the guidance continues to rush the sustained warmth. We will continue to see more and more of it and 60s are not far off. We had a glancing blow of it last week before the sleet fest.

i think this weekend is my last chance. the core of winter is over IMO. long range is showing warmth and rain after V-day. the pattern is already turning and looks like we will probably be above avg temps second half of month.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 pm i think this weekend is my last chance. the core of winter is over IMO. long range is showing warmth and rain after V-day. the pattern is already turning and looks like we will probably be above avg temps second half of month.

That’s the direction I see things going as well. Another warm GFS run overnight. Bring it! I’m ready for thunderstorms

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:14 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 pm i think this weekend is my last chance. the core of winter is over IMO. long range is showing warmth and rain after V-day. the pattern is already turning and looks like we will probably be above avg temps second half of month.

That’s the direction I see things going as well. Another warm GFS run overnight. Bring it! I’m ready for thunderstorms

You had a #2 warm december. That's enough Heat Miser! You'll be back soon enough. Give us a break!

Good morning all! I could be wrong with my up n down pattern thoughts ion the longer term. Ensembles are contuing to show more warmth coming esp into early March. If the MJO gets into Phase 4 then it'll absolutely happen. My thinking has always been that the MJO does get there but slower then models iondicate and I think they are rushing the NE Pacific ridge retrograding to the west sot he trough can diog more into the Western US. We'll see, as always. I may have to come over to the warm side, but I'm not yet ready to do that.

In the short term, A few flakes to the north possible this morning, otherwise rain likely Fri afternoon and evening. Amounts wise models range from 0.10 to 0.25" so some of you will see more rain then others. I know Joe has outdoor pans Fri evening. Might want to put on a rain coat if radar has better coverage. I don't think it's a wash out but a tenth to quarter inch of rain being outside is not good either lol

I think we'll see some flurries Sat morning. Going dry and cold for SBS. For Monday, V-day, will continue the flurry chance in the morning there as well if do see that last clipper system moving thru. Then we warm up and get wet Thurs / Fri of next week.

As of 2/8 per the Aussies, MJO is in week Phase 2, close to the neutral circle.

Confidence is growing for that warm up for the eastern US sometime during the last week of Feb into March, how long it lasts still in question of course. Possible PV from hell , late winter style in the making, once the SE ridge gets going watch out

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:27 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:14 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 pm i think this weekend is my last chance. the core of winter is over IMO. long range is showing warmth and rain after V-day. the pattern is already turning and looks like we will probably be above avg temps second half of month.

That’s the direction I see things going as well. Another warm GFS run overnight. Bring it! I’m ready for thunderstorms

You had a #2 warm december. That's enough Heat Miser! You'll be back soon enough. Give us a break!

Oh come on wasn’t that sleet fest enough excitement for you until next winter?!?!

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:06 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:27 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:14 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 pm i think this weekend is my last chance. the core of winter is over IMO. long range is showing warmth and rain after V-day. the pattern is already turning and looks like we will probably be above avg temps second half of month.

That’s the direction I see things going as well. Another warm GFS run overnight. Bring it! I’m ready for thunderstorms

You had a #2 warm december. That's enough Heat Miser! You'll be back soon enough. Give us a break!

Oh come on wasn’t that sleet fest enough excitement for you until next winter?!?!

Do I seriously even need to answer this question?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:03 am Confidence is growing for that warm up for the eastern US sometime during the last week of Feb into March, how long it lasts still in question of course. Possible PV from hell , late winter style in the making, once the SE ridge gets going watch out

Yessir. Potential is certainly there for an above active severe weather season. Would be quite the contrast to last year’s record slowness.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:03 am Confidence is growing for that warm up for the eastern US sometime during the last week of Feb into March, how long it lasts still in question of course. Possible PV from hell , late winter style in the making, once the SE ridge gets going watch out

Yessir. Potential is certainly there for an above active severe weather season. Would be quite the contrast to last year’s record slowness.

It's not going to be difficult to beat last year it was so bad. Just like this winter snowfall wise. Pretty easy to beat when you're low to begin with. If the current look from the GEFS verifies, the pattern is looking very good in about 2 weeks from now.

Total ice coverage combined at 41% as of last sunday


Ice coverage for each lake:


Lake Superior: 34%
Lake Michigan: 24%
Lake Huron: 55%
Lake Erie: 82%
Lake Ontario: 29%

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:42 am Total ice coverage combined at 41% as of last sunday


Ice coverage for each lake:


Lake Superior: 34%
Lake Michigan: 24%
Lake Huron: 55%
Lake Erie: 82%
Lake Ontario: 29%

That's pretty good considering the late start to winter.

12Z NAM at CVG has some light rain Fri evening ending as mood flakes Sat morning. QPF is light 0.09"

Good Morning and Les we are on the exact same page for the longer term. Thoughts almost exactly the same and key to the forecast is if the mjo makes it way to phase 4. I am just going with the odds as the mjo has remained longer than predicted in each phase this winter and also longer in the cod. That is a trend and until I see that trend is broken I am going to stick with that happening once again. Sure late Feb and early March we will get a day or two of warmth ahead of a storm system like next week but long term warmth I really will wait until I see the pattern change.

Tim, Good morning! Please keep in mind we may have to change to Bgoney's and Trev's warmer thoughts, but I am going with the up n down temp trend until I see the MJO going towards the warmer phases.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:30 am Tim, Good morning! Please keep in mind we may have to change to Bgoney's and Trev's warmer thoughts, but I am going with the up n down temp trend until I see the MJO going towards the warmer phases.

Les I will never go to the other side lol.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:03 am Confidence is growing for that warm up for the eastern US sometime during the last week of Feb into March, how long it lasts still in question of course. Possible PV from hell , late winter style in the making, once the SE ridge gets going watch out

after this weekend winter is over as far as im concerned

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:30 am Tim, Good morning! Please keep in mind we may have to change to Bgoney's and Trev's warmer thoughts, but I am going with the up n down temp trend until I see the MJO going towards the warmer phases.

Les I will never go to the other side lol.

I think we're by ourselves on this one. I'm glad that we will go down in flames together and not alone!

Nothing too exciting the 12Z GFS until we get to the Thurs / Fri system next week. On this run, we see a big cranked up Plains Low with a blizz potential and heavy snow over the Plains and Western Lakes. T-storms for us Thurs night and Friday with a windy and very warm Thurs into the 60s! :0 Looks like we've got the two low idea on this run and it's very very slow with bringing out that second piece out of NM. We'll see if anything can come of it in a bit.

Plenty of qpf for late next week system , 1.5-2.5 for the region

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 12:29 pm Plenty of qpf for late next week system , 1.5-2.5 for the region

My driveway could use some thawing. Perfect!

0.23" QPF for CVG for Friday. Supports Tim's call there still.

Euro has 0.11" of rain, which is more like my call lol Model battle continues for rainfall amounts on Fri. I still think we'll see some flurries Sat morning also esp north of the Tri-state. Should be a good fetch coming off of Lake Michigan.