Absolute Vorticity

12Z Euro is coming in stronger and further south at hour 66 with the energy compared to its 0Z run. Let's see what impacts it shows down the road...

Well shoot... upper low is still weak and south and you know the rest.

EDIT: It was a good NW shift from its previous runs. It is almost like the GFS is leading the way and the Euro is a couple of runs behind still.

Wow, talk about a morphing 12z suite for pretty much a good chunk east of the Mississippi for the weekend. It's going to be like that for a few more days. The complexities of the many shortwave and their separation and strength along with the high or block position to the north is wreaking havoc on weekend weather

As long as the GFS is on to something and not "on something", then we are very much still in the game on this system. The keys I believe we have figured out are...

1) Need a weak Thurs system, get it in and out as fast as possible.
2) Need the ULL strong and closed off for a stronger and slower system evolution.
3) 1 and 2 will dictate the track and how far NW the precip shield can come as it rounds the base of the trough and attempts to climb the Coast. We hope that it is an inland runner of course.

WTH... 18Z NAM on Thurs is coming in with 0.21" of QPF at CVG. It's really strong with that system! This has zero model support of course.

Ha Ha - AMP NAM

I found one model that keeps hopes alive for Saturday. It's the NAV GEM! It shows the original more northern and eastern track. A usual clipper like solution we're used to seeing with moisture return from the Gulf. Lock it in?

It really is amazing watching the system track towards us, bend to the south, pass us to the south then bend back to the north once if passes by! Talk about a dome! LOL

18z GFS trying to give us some love with the Sunday system

GFS 18z continues to throw curveballs with every run.

Ha, I just looked at it and it is trending to that Jan 1996/Feb 1998 upper low TN/KY and east coast surface low look. Lol

Gotta like where the models went today, leaving a good deal of potential on the field. That's all it is atm, bit I'll take it.

18Z GFS def continued the 12Z trend. We get snows from the ULL that sometimes can be very beneficial, esp when the East Coast low is slow to get going. It does not rocket up the coast leaving us high and dry. 0.31" at CVG for QPF on this run. Want to see that trend continue tonight for sure and get more models on board would also be nice. That is the key... Thursday system needs to be weak. If it is, we've got a shot at this. If that Thurs system digs, it's going to be a swing and a miss.

Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:47 pm Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

Hope she’s doing well. My mother in law just turned 85 and also has had fall issues. It’s no fun for sure trying to take care of our parents.

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:56 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:47 pm Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

Hope she’s doing well. My mother in law just turned 85 and also has had fall issues. It’s no fun for sure trying to take care of our parents.

Thanks Leslie. Hope your mother n law is doing well. When my mom turned 80 in 2012 she was in great health and was more like someone in the mid 50's. Since then she broke both hips and then during the last year 3 more falls. Both my mother-n-law and father-n-law are having health issues as well so it seems we are either at a doctor's office,hospital or rehab facility.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:47 pm Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

All the best to your Mom, Tim! And for you as well. Sometimes care givers need a little help too. We're just tracking a system for this weekend is all attm along with a cold pattern and chances for wintry precip over the next few weeks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:06 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:47 pm Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

All the best to your Mom, Tim! And for you as well. Sometimes care givers need a little help too. We're just tracking a system for this weekend is all attm along with a cold pattern and chances for wintry precip over the next few weeks.

Thanks Les and I have seen some of the caregivers go down in a hurry as well. I am doing fine and have a wonderful wife who is always there when needed. I love the pattern change and looking forward to some decent systems to track. Hopefully by Wednesday I will have looked at quite a bit of info and give my thoughts on the upcoming system and of course the last half of January. Been awhile since we have had a decent second half of January and in recent years its been more in February when winter decides to show up.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:10 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:06 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:47 pm Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

All the best to your Mom, Tim! And for you as well. Sometimes care givers need a little help too. We're just tracking a system for this weekend is all attm along with a cold pattern and chances for wintry precip over the next few weeks.

Thanks Les and I have seen some of the caregivers go down in a hurry as well. I am doing fine and have a wonderful wife who is always there when needed. I love the pattern change and looking forward to some decent systems to track. Hopefully by Wednesday I will have looked at quite a bit of info and give my thoughts on the upcoming system and of course the last half of January. Been awhile since we have had a decent second half of January and in recent years its been more in February when winter decides to show up.

Good deal Tim! Cannot wait to hear what you are thinking, whenever time permits.

18Z Euro at Hour 90, then it stops... is coming in a tick north of 12Z at the same time so that's good. Euro over all is still well south of the GFS but slowly trending that way. CMC is kind of middle of the road between the two.

Thinking of you Tim!! I remember those days as well.

I hope the Sunday storm turns into a Ohio valley bomb and you get blizzard conditions for 2 days. you all deserve it.

Boy I sure do like the overnight model runs. The GFS and CMC are looking great for our area

Yep, overnight model suite was just as intriguing as yesterday. EU continued its trend of a low more north as well as precip shield, as did the EPS moving moisture closer to the river. GFS , continued its treck with each run improving for cvgland , as well as GEFs . After the changes yesterday we're still at day 5 for possible event, so we know more ups and downs to come .


The EU last 24 hr changes

Good morning all and the models are continuing to throw us a bone. NAM is still fantasy range but even it's north with the low track at 84 hours. versus the low being down along the Gulf Coast. The GFS is wow-wee!!! 6Z run is even more north bringing the low into KY where it dies and does the East Coast transfer to an inland low. Major snow storm for us on the GFS, both the 0Z and 6Z runs. As Mike said, the CMC is playing ball now fully supporting the GFS solution. Euro is still a swing and a miss for us but it's not quite as south as it once was, it is slowly coming north. GEFS is still south of the OP GFS but I am see more members with the N low track then before so it's slowly coming around. EPS is like the OP Euro. We'll see folks but my interest is increasing in this system now due in on Sunday instead of Saturday.