Absolute Vorticity

Good afternoon all! Sorry for the lack of posts. Work kicked my ass all day long. Literally the entire day I was on a call or calling someone back. I haven't checked a model from the 12Z run on. 69 here and at CVG right now, so a gorgeous day! Should be able to crack 70 (L70s) for tomorrow and Wed with lows in the 40s. I like a chance for rain Wed night into Thurs with the next frontal system moving in. Not a lot of rain IMO but the chance is there. We look to cool down at least into the L60s behind that system for highs, but the models continue to be uncertain with the track of that upper low. Sunday looks wetter then Sat per the latest guidance. If correct, we'd be stuck ion the 50s for highs with clouds / rain versus the L60s if we were to stay dry. That'll be the challenge. Where does that rain set up shop? We will continue to monitor, but the weekend isn't looking all that good attm.

Looks like Tim and I are on the same page at this time which is a good thing.

Some much needed storminess for the North American west coast the next 10 days . Models showing a doozy of a wind storm along with several smaller storms hitting the coast. Expect an expansion and even more GOA/NEpac waters to cool , possibly affecting patterns going forward.. +EPO/-PNA dominating the next 2 weeks along with a -NAO

Due to the above.... we will probably begin Nov on an above avg note. Question is.... do we turn colder for the middle or later part of the month? If that answer turns out to be yes, then the early start to winter call is beautiful. We'll just have to wait and see what things look like as we get closer. Plenty of time for us to do just that. One constant that I continue to see on the really long term guidance is a persistent block over Hudson's Bay. Currently, we're not seeing any truly cold air because we've got to get Canada cold first. Most of the cold is still in the developing stages in Siberia and Alaska. The position of the block that I just mentioned will aide in the storm track that we primarily see this winter. I think the -PNA is fine to keep the storminess coming. Will the block aide in keeping the storm track far enough south for us to be on the frozen side versus the wet side. We will probably be riding the line at times. As they say... that's sooooo Cincinnati!

Great Posts guys and that pattern over the next few weeks is just fine. There is enough energy hitting the west coast and with some blocking to our north some of that storminess will make it here in a different way. Normally we would see these storms hit the west coast this time of year and head up to Canada. Some of that energy will try and do that but with the -nao these systems will work back southeast and that is where you can get these cutoff lows that can bring us some cooler and wet days.Les you made the most important statement and that is with the blocking. Getting a -pna usually is not a good thing for us unless you have that blocking and if this happen over the next 3-4 months on a steady basis we will be busy as no doubt we will be above normal in the precip totals but will we have the cold air at the correct times. That is why predicting snowfall totals imo one of the hardest things too predict in the winter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:36 pm Great Posts guys and that pattern over the next few weeks is just fine. There is enough energy hitting the west coast and with some blocking to our north some of that storminess will make it here in a different way. Normally we would see these storms hit the west coast this time of year and head up to Canada. Some of that energy will try and do that but with the -nao these systems will work back southeast and that is where you can get these cutoff lows that can bring us some cooler and wet days.Les you made the most important statement and that is with the blocking. Getting a -pna usually is not a good thing for us unless you have that blocking and if this happen over the next 3-4 months on a steady basis we will be busy as no doubt we will be above normal in the precip totals but will we have the cold air at the correct times. That is why predicting snowfall totals imo one of the hardest things too predict in the winter.

Good evening Tim! Agreed... predicting snowfall is very tough but it's challenging and I enjoy a challenge so I try each year anyway. I've come close a couple of times, but normally blow it. It can come down to just 1 system sometimes. Other times, you can have bad luck in a good pattern. We've seen that plenty of times. But anyway... my point still stands. The -PNA is fine to keep the storminess coming. Can the blocking continue and be in the correct spot to force the storm track far enough south for us. As always, you don't need brutally cold air, just air cold enough to support snow. I've always said that and will continue to do so. Now, if you want very cold air, then we need to see a -EPO for that and not the current +EPO regime that is currently happening and will continue to do so as Bgoney mentioned.

GFS/EU show similar amounts for the west coast over only 10 days. Here's the EU. Put that in your reservoir and smoke it.

42 imby this morning. Still looking at nice weather today and tomorrow. Shower chance Wed night into Thurs. Maybe a spotty shower on Friday as well. Due to that weekend system, the frost threat is likely now dead thanks to clouds and / or showers. I think Sat is a nice, but cool day with the rain chances for Sunday.

Then for next week, we warm up for a few days ahead of a potent cold front. If the GFS is right, the trough takes on a negative tilt and severe wx would be possible with that system. It's a long ways out, we're talking around the Rocktober 27th. That is a long ways out but a system to watch for sure.

That is great news for the pacific northwest. Plenty of rain and mountain snows. These systems are powerful which happens quite often in late October for that area of the country though in recent years not so much. So when we get the so called leftover's of these storms they may not always contain tons of moisture if we are not getting that highway from the GOM but they have tons of wind energy. So the system late Wednesday and early Thursday may produce low amounts in terms of rainfall but expect it to be a rather windy day. I agree with Les about the frost and with cloud cover likely it's going to be hard to produce frost but daytime temps should be below normal and either Sunday or Monday still expecting a day that should have temps remain in the low 50's. A quick warm up after that before the next system comes in and this should be a rather strong system that may well produce severe weather for us before turning colder. Btw have the yard down to once a week but it still is lush especially for this time of year.

Good morning Tim! Lush here also. I need to mow before the week is out. I think we'll stay in the 50s on Sunday if the track of that system is correct. It'll be close for us in terms of scattered showers or a steadier rain. LOU's forecast area maybe more in line for a steadier rain but this far out, the track of that system is not yet set in stone.

Good Morning Les and correct we need to see the exact track of the system. Btw in the extended you can really see the cold expanding in Canada and that is great news. We are on the same page over the 10 days or so which is usually a good sign with the forecasts.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:44 am GFS/EU show similar amounts for the west coast over only 10 days. Here's the EU. Put that in your reservoir and smoke it.

Hmm - I thought CNN's "meteorologists" told us it was never going to rain there ever again. Good thing we are smarter than they are! 43 here this morning.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:00 am Good Morning Les and correct we need to see the exact track of the system. Btw in the extended you can really see the cold expanding in Canada and that is great news. We are on the same page over the 10 days or so which is usually a good sign with the forecasts.

Yes Sir! Absolutely!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:02 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:44 am GFS/EU show similar amounts for the west coast over only 10 days. Here's the EU. Put that in your reservoir and smoke it.

Hmm - I thought CNN's "meteorologists" told us it was never going to rain there ever again. Good thing we are smarter than they are! 43 here this morning.

It has been one of the driest years on record for California, but never going to rain again? That's absurd!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:16 am 42 imby this morning. Still looking at nice weather today and tomorrow. Shower chance Wed night into Thurs. Maybe a spotty shower on Friday as well. Due to that weekend system, the frost threat is likely now dead thanks to clouds and / or showers. I think Sat is a nice, but cool day with the rain chances for Sunday.

Then for next week, we warm up for a few days ahead of a potent cold front. If the GFS is right, the trough takes on a negative tilt and severe wx would be possible with that system. It's a long ways out, we're talking around the Rocktober 27th. That is a long ways out but a system to watch for sure.

Definitely agree Les it looks quite interesting towards month's end. This is about when all my leaves fall to the ground, and we get a nice big wind storm to blow them all down the street so I don't have to rake them!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:02 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:44 am GFS/EU show similar amounts for the west coast over only 10 days. Here's the EU. Put that in your reservoir and smoke it.

Hmm - I thought CNN's "meteorologists" told us it was never going to rain there ever again. Good thing we are smarter than they are! 43 here this morning.

I believe their was a song It never rains in southern California in the 60's. I wonder why and maybe because rainfall is usually low in southern California. Yes it has been dry recently but mother nature always seems to balance things out in the end. I also believe several years ago when Texas was i a drought we heard the same nonsense and since that event happen it has been very wet. So you get these talking heads who just spit this junk out and no thought process at all. Even scarier though is the folks that watch these folks and just take it as the truth. Come on folks use your brain and add some common sense.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:10 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:16 am 42 imby this morning. Still looking at nice weather today and tomorrow. Shower chance Wed night into Thurs. Maybe a spotty shower on Friday as well. Due to that weekend system, the frost threat is likely now dead thanks to clouds and / or showers. I think Sat is a nice, but cool day with the rain chances for Sunday.

Then for next week, we warm up for a few days ahead of a potent cold front. If the GFS is right, the trough takes on a negative tilt and severe wx would be possible with that system. It's a long ways out, we're talking around the Rocktober 27th. That is a long ways out but a system to watch for sure.

Definitely agree Les it looks quite interesting towards month's end. This is about when all my leaves fall to the ground, and we get a nice big wind storm to blow them all down the street so I don't have to rake them!

I start to cut the grass shorter this time of year to try and get those leaves to blow away. I have a lot. I'll be grinding thru November most likely.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:47 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:10 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:16 am 42 imby this morning. Still looking at nice weather today and tomorrow. Shower chance Wed night into Thurs. Maybe a spotty shower on Friday as well. Due to that weekend system, the frost threat is likely now dead thanks to clouds and / or showers. I think Sat is a nice, but cool day with the rain chances for Sunday.

Then for next week, we warm up for a few days ahead of a potent cold front. If the GFS is right, the trough takes on a negative tilt and severe wx would be possible with that system. It's a long ways out, we're talking around the Rocktober 27th. That is a long ways out but a system to watch for sure.

Definitely agree Les it looks quite interesting towards month's end. This is about when all my leaves fall to the ground, and we get a nice big wind storm to blow them all down the street so I don't have to rake them!

I start to cut the grass shorter this time of year to try and get those leaves to blow away. I have a lot. I'll be grinding thru November most likely.

This late start to the leaves changing is killing me. I will be in SC from Nov 5th-21st so my thought process was I would have most of the leaf work done here and then take care of the leaves in SC. My guess when I come back I will be in the yard quite often just before Thanksgiving.

Agreed Tim... only other major outside project I've got is too trim a few of the trees but I usually wait until November for that once it gets colder for the trees to go dormant. Def late this year (leaves) thanks to the warmth we've had. I don't think we'll see a lot of color this year. Mainly turning brown and falling off is what I have been observing.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:28 am Agreed Tim... only other major outside project I've got is too trim a few of the trees but I usually wait until November for that once it gets colder for the trees to go dormant. Def late this year (leaves) thanks to the warmth we've had. I don't think we'll see a lot of color this year. Mainly turning brown and falling off is what I have been observing.

Les we are agreeing way to much lol. Not only of the forecast but with outdoor projects.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:28 am Agreed Tim... only other major outside project I've got is too trim a few of the trees but I usually wait until November for that once it gets colder for the trees to go dormant. Def late this year (leaves) thanks to the warmth we've had. I don't think we'll see a lot of color this year. Mainly turning brown and falling off is what I have been observing.

Les we are agreeing way to much lol. Not only of the forecast but with outdoor projects.

Scary isn't it? Hope you can bring us some snowy luck since you are the precip magnet in 2021.

Well, it was a great day to work outside. Even did a couple of small leaf jobs. Not much color up here either yet.

Got the grass mowed and leaves ground up for another week. Hope we can get some cooler weather. The grass is still growing like mad. Still cutting more grass then I am mulching up the leaves.

Anyway... one more beauty tomorrow for outside projects then as discussed, those small rain chances Thurs / Fri. A dry Sat then all eyes on that Sunday into Monday time period to see if we get rain and 50s or not. Track of that system is still up in the air this far away.

Models have backed off on the chances to see any frost(cvg) for October, unless a last day cold front can deliver, Not surprising with the trough in the west dominating the last 10 days of the month

Good Morning and one last beautiful day ahead of us. The system coming through here late tonight and Thursday has very limited moisture so I am going with amount around .10-.20 and that could be a stretch in some areas though later Thursday the rain totals may go up well to our southeast. Friday could be a typical fall day with maybe a few showers and temps probably near 60 or so. Saturday is the pick day with temps probably getting somewhere in the 62-65 range with plenty of sun. That is the easy part of the forecast as we head into Sunday and Monday. Sunday could offer a wide range of temps as a warm front to the south will try and push northward during the day. Heading into the time of year where warm fronts have a much harder time of moving north and models along with mets miss this quite often. This could end up with folks say in Louisville end up with temps heading towards 70 as showers and thundershowers move in and lets go with Columbus and might be a day that is cloudy with showers and temps in the low 50's. Will need to watch this and see how the warm front advances. Monday looks milder as the warm front should be north for most of us and temps can get in the mid-upper 60's. Looking further ahead a decent storm looks to hit late next week and bring in the coldest air of the young season and Halloween at the moment looks dry but cool and at this point temps probably in the upper 40's during the evening.

Holy updraft Batperson!!!

All Hail Australia. Yesterday.... While many of the stones measured 12 to 14cm (4.7 to 5.5 inches) in diameter, An image had been sent to the BoM’s Queensland office allowing them to verify the 16cm (6.3 inches) reading

And how'd those solar panels work out for you ,Mate.