Absolute Vorticity

Larry still at 120 this morning.

The Gulf wave has a 10% chance now in 48 hours and still holding at 30% over the next 5 days.

Larry taking a bit of a hit atm going through EWR and trying to recover

Larry could be first hurricane since Igor in 2010 to hit Newfoundland.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:57 am Larry could be first hurricane since Igor in 2010 to hit Newfoundland.

There's that year again.

The Gulf tropical wave now has a 30% chance in the next 48 hours of development and 40% in the next 5 days. Didn't want to see an uptick in the percentages on this one but it is what it is. We may have a Gulf system down the road to contend with. Again... UGH! If it hits, I hope it is next week when I am on vacation so my work doesn't get me any busier then I already am due to Ida.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

50% now on the Gulf wave as of 8pm.

Larry continues his slow decline, he never did reach what was expected

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:35 am Larry continues his slow decline, he never did reach what was expected

125 I think was the highest, right? Was expecting a Cat 4 around 140 if I remember the original intensity forecast.

As of 2pm: Larry is down to 110 mph now and the Gulf Wave is at 60%.

Now have TS Mindy in the Gulf.

Mindy won't last long moving to the NE at 21 mph.

Tropical Storm Mindy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
500 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT MINDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

Recent data from NOAA buoy 42036 indicates that the maximum
sustained winds in Mindy are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 86.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

TD Mindy is over S FL / S GA and we can almost kiss that quick hitting system good bye. Larry is down to 100 mph winds now as his slow decline continues.

Our next wave in the SW Caribbean moving towards the S Gulf in the coming days... has a 20% chance in the next 5 days.

The tropics are very busy still as we move into the peak of the season.

Mindy - Off the East Coast and is no longer a threat to the US.
Larry - Winds of 85 mph racing to the NNE and St. John's Newfoundland is at risk. Larry will die near the south coast of Greenland and is expected to bring blizzard conditions and 3 to 5 feet of snow.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean has a 60% chance now in the next 5 days and could be our next Gulf trouble maker down the road.
Finally, another wave coming off of Africa has a 70% chance in the next 5 days.

The Gulf wave now has a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days and the wave off of Africa a 50% chance over the next 5 days.

The Gulf wave is still at 90% chance and 2 waves near Africa one at 20% and the other at 10% for development.

Look for the Gulf wave to become TS Nicholas before long as that system looks to be an "insult to injury" for parts of TX and LA late today through about Tues. Places that don't really need any more rainfall esp LA i.e. in the wake of Ida.

UPDATE: As of 11 o'clock TS Nicholas has formed!

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1 of 2 waves near Africa is still at 20% while the other has diminished to 0%.

TS Nicholas the main event for this week to keep tabs on.

UPDATE: As of 11 PM the other wave near Africa is at 10%.

Another African wave has a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Otherwise TS Nicholas the main event moving north with sustained top wind of 60 mph.

Nicholas should move fast enough to not cause major widespread flash flooding. 8-10" in a small area along the coast 4-8" inland,

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The African wave has early potential of being an east coast/New England problem around the 26th-27th. Still waaaay to early to speculate though.