Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:12 am**

Up to around a quarter of an inch of rain now, maybe a third for today. Tack that on to what we got Monday and totals down my way are in that 1.25 to 1.5" range - event total so far. Deepening low now 1009 MB over Eastern OH (I wish this was January LOL) now allowing for the deform rains to start developing. Look for increasing rains today esp East into tonight with this slow moving low. I would love for this pattern to keep repeating. If so we're gonna have some fun folks.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:15 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:21 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:16 pm
That will get the leaf color to get going.
I think the warm days and cool nights coming up after we get by this storm system should start the process over the next couple of weeks.

Agreed

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:19 am**

Pouring rain and windy here. Have not ventured out to check the gauge yet. If I do, I may put on my swim trunks.

Go from a/c to heat at night this weekend???? I hate damp chills.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:23 am**

Welcome to Fall JP and everyone else! We'll get back into the high 70s+ next week. Can't rule out an 80 down here even. But we should drop again to start Rocktober unless Sam and the tropics have a say. Gonna be interesting to see if the tropics can interact with any of these incoming troughs. Should be a good start to Rocktober!

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:26 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:12 am Up to around a quarter of an inch of rain now, maybe a third for today. Tack that on to what we got Monday and totals down my way are in that 1.25 to 1.5" range - event total so far. Deepening low now 1009 MB over Eastern OH (I wish this was January LOL) now allowing for the deform rains to start developing. Look for increasing rains today esp East into tonight with this slow moving low. I would love for this pattern to keep repeating. If so we're gonna have some fun folks.

Just like with winter time storms, the forecast rain totals are not going to be as predicted. Some more, some less than forecasted. Dayton seems to be in the middle of the two heaviest bands, at least so far. As this low strengthens I would expect the Dayton area to begin to add up on totals also.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:34 am**

dce wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:26 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:12 am Up to around a quarter of an inch of rain now, maybe a third for today. Tack that on to what we got Monday and totals down my way are in that 1.25 to 1.5" range - event total so far. Deepening low now 1009 MB over Eastern OH (I wish this was January LOL) now allowing for the deform rains to start developing. Look for increasing rains today esp East into tonight with this slow moving low. I would love for this pattern to keep repeating. If so we're gonna have some fun folks.
Just like with winter time storms, the forecast rain totals are not going to be as predicted. Some more, some less than forecasted. Dayton seems to be in the middle of the two heaviest bands, at least so far. As this low strengthens I would expect the Dayton area to begin to add up on totals also.

Agree Doug... overall I think the models did good, but they never do for all areas. Most folks should be in that 1-3" range by the time this one is done. Could see a rouge 4" amount out there. Seen 5-6" amounts outside of our coverage area already.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:16 am**

A nice steady rain here.... US 23 corridor looks like some very heavy rain there... CMH down to Portsmouth.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:19 am**

Up to 1.60 inches so far today. 2.30 total since yesterday.

In case you all missed this. I saw this on FB by NWS. https://www.weather.gov/iln/rainfall-mo ... V84MsBWWrA

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:31 am**

11am CVG event total - 1.29"

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:05 pm**

Looks like the pattern is going to repeat itself again with some kind of a closed low / cut off low dropping into the Great Lakes the first week of Rocktober with a blocking ridge over Eastern Canada, Eastern Atlantic and New England. Puts us in a cloudy, cool, and showery scenario. Not sure if any tropical action gets involved. all depends on the timing of Sam and how the block sets up yo see if it sneaks underneath it or gets kicked back out to sea for a miss. Could go either way this early but that's the deal in the longer term pattern for early Rocktober.

Before then for the rest of September, once we get past this system, a taste of fall for temps. A weak system for Sat. Gorgeous after that into early next week... we warm up near 80 (U70s easy), then a weak system around Wed of next week. Then the cut off scenario I just spoke of for early Rocktober.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:08 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:05 pm Looks like the pattern is going to repeat itself again with some kind of a closed low / cut off low dropping into the Great Lakes the first week of Rocktober with a blocking ridge over Eastern Canada, Eastern Atlantic and New England. Puts us in a cloudy, cool, and showery scenario. Not sure if any tropical action gets involved. all depends on the timing of Sam and how the block sets up yo see if it sneaks underneath it or gets kicked back out to sea for a miss. Could go either way this early but that's the deal in the longer term pattern for early Rocktober.

Before then for the rest of September, once we get past this system, a taste of fall for temps. A weak system for Sat. Gorgeous after that into early next week... we warm up near 80 (U70s easy), then a weak system around Wed of next week. Then the cut off scenario I just spoke of for early Rocktober.

Love seeing this cutoff lows and hope this continues through the winter. They tend to treat us better than big systems from the south because they bringer the warmer up the west side of the mountains.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:11 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:08 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:05 pm Looks like the pattern is going to repeat itself again with some kind of a closed low / cut off low dropping into the Great Lakes the first week of Rocktober with a blocking ridge over Eastern Canada, Eastern Atlantic and New England. Puts us in a cloudy, cool, and showery scenario. Not sure if any tropical action gets involved. all depends on the timing of Sam and how the block sets up yo see if it sneaks underneath it or gets kicked back out to sea for a miss. Could go either way this early but that's the deal in the longer term pattern for early Rocktober.

Before then for the rest of September, once we get past this system, a taste of fall for temps. A weak system for Sat. Gorgeous after that into early next week... we warm up near 80 (U70s easy), then a weak system around Wed of next week. Then the cut off scenario I just spoke of for early Rocktober.
Love seeing this cutoff lows and hope this continues through the winter. They tend to treat us better than big systems from the south because they bringer the warmer up the west side of the mountains.

If the blocking continues, we're in! If this is our current pattern for the winter sign me up.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:25 pm**

1006 MB low over OH / WV that continues to tighten up. 82 in PIT ahead of the low and in the 50s where we are behind it. Translate this system to January please. Thank you.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:15 pm**

Update- 3.25" for event so far

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:24 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:15 pm Update- 3.25" for event so far

Wow! You're probably going to be in that 4" camp per radar trends.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 3:36 pm**

Deform band moving in now on the backside of the circulation. 1004 low over extreme Eastern Ohio at this time. A steady / wind driven rain here.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:27 pm**

Up to 2.20 for today. 2.90 since yesterday.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:42 pm**

When I last checked my gauge at around 4 PM it was at 2.30" and so a combo of (then) of 2.80" since Mon.

Currently 52 here in Greenville and progged for around 48 Thurs morning.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:47 pm**

55 glorious degrees here with mod rain continuing under the upper low / deform band of rain. A wet night ahead for the area. But it's mainly being soaked up here. The Dome was dry and this storm should bring the water table back up to normal.

We needed a good rainer /soaker. Very happy here with this system.

1.59" event total at CVG as of 6pm. My hood over an inch and a half as well. 1.58" also at Boone Co mesonet site as of 6:40pm. All of this is since Sun night - event totals.

Posted: **Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:49 pm**

JanuaryIsComing.gif

Posted: **Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:32 am**

1.78" at CVG as of 6am is the new event total officially. About the same here too. Look for the rain to end this morning (Later to the north) with windy and cloudy skies. Perhaps a peek of sun late. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Mid 40s tonight then the low 70s and gorgeous sunshine for Fri. Small chance for rain on Sat with the next front. Then lovely weather Sun thru Tues or Wed of next week. Highs in the U70s to near 80 with lows in the 50s.

Posted: **Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:51 am**

2.25" event total here

Posted: **Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:30 am**

Well, blue skies and sunny now. There goes my cloudy call.

We'll either see CU fill back in or the dry air wins and the mid 60s will easily occur despite CAA. Wish we had some leaf color like in N MN. Would be an awesome morning like it was up there.

Posted: **Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:12 pm**

Summer isn't over yet per the 12Z Euro. Look at those heights for early Rocktober. Mid to upper 80s. This is for CVG.

Code: Select all

THU 12Z 30-SEP  12.8    10.6    1025      86      15    0.00     587     566    
THU 18Z 30-SEP  24.5    10.5    1024      51      13    0.00     588     567    
FRI 00Z 01-OCT  19.8    10.9    1024      63       9    0.00     587     567    
FRI 06Z 01-OCT  14.8    10.2    1026      70       9    0.00     587     565    
FRI 12Z 01-OCT  12.4     9.8    1028      85      10    0.00     587     564    
FRI 18Z 01-OCT  23.5     9.9    1027      45      10    0.00     588     565    
SAT 00Z 02-OCT  18.6     9.4    1026      63       7    0.00     588     566    
SAT 06Z 02-OCT  14.0    10.5    1027      75       6    0.00     588     566    
SAT 12Z 02-OCT  11.3     9.4    1028      86       4    0.00     588     565    
SAT 18Z 02-OCT  22.1     9.3    1026      44       2    0.00     589     567    
SUN 00Z 03-OCT  17.3    10.9    1023      60       2    0.00     588     568    
SUN 06Z 03-OCT  13.3    13.7    1023      75       4    0.00     587     568    
SUN 12Z 03-OCT  11.4    12.4    1025      86       3    0.00     587     566

Posted: **Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:37 pm**

3.50" total here and no signs of it anywhere, the ground soaked every bit in

Absolute Vorticity

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