Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:52 am So apparently had a storm between 1 and 2 and somehow managed 0.59”!

And you are playing the lottery today, correct?

Copying over my morning post from the last page:....

Good Saturday morning to you all!

Keeping today dry (minus a pop up for the SE Crew), otherwise POPS are back now for tomorrow and every day next week. How much moisture can we get from Fred and another incoming front is going to be the keys to us getting some nice rains or being more scattered and a lot of us failing.

I am going with scattered POPS in the 40/50% variety for Sun - Tues with likely POPS by Wed and Thurs with the leftovers of Fred. Scattered again on Friday. We'll see how things shape up as we go out in time. 2" of rain thru mid week is absolutely likely should Fred come far enough north to bring the rain shield to us.

Models show the following precip amounts for Cincinnati ending at Wed evening 8pm.
0Z Euro - 1.5"
0Z GFS - 0.20" 6Z GFS - 0.60"
0Z NAM ending ending 8am Tues morning: 1.3"
6Z NAM ending early Tues afternoon: 0.90"

So as you can see....some show scattered, very little, and others show some much needed rainfall. We know based on this past week how bad the models have done with rainfall distribution. Awful in fact. Throw in a front and Fred and we are probably best to keep nowcasting it. Bottom line... we've been screwed yes, but more rain chances, plenty in fact, are coming. Just have to wait and see who can cash in.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:52 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:52 am So apparently had a storm between 1 and 2 and somehow managed 0.59”!

And you are playing the lottery today, correct?

Ok so I need to learn how to read my weather machine. The 0.59” was for the MONTH so far - I got 0.27” this morning. Lol

With Fred now looking more likely to affect next weeks weather I'll post more model stuff in this thread along with our tropical thread. Another westward shift of remnants in some modeling today

You still got rain though Mike which was awesome! Mowed, watering now, and picked beans out there today. I will be ready to receive some rain should it materialize in the coming days. Sure hope so! 84 so far at CVG, 83 here. Humidity is better. Won't last with Fred coming ashore next week so savor it now.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:25 pm With Fred now looking more likely to affect next weeks weather I'll post more model stuff in this thread along with our tropical thread. Another westward shift of remnants in some modeling today

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This looks awesome! Stop there. I saw an uptick in Euro QPF for next week and the GFS as well so along with the tropical model tracks above, if correct, everyone should see some much needed rainfall.

Good Afternoon and mowed the grass this morning and was surprise the ground was wet and ended up with about 6/10ths of an inch yesterday which surprised me. Going to make 2 predictions and this is with rainfall through Wednesday. 1.44 inches of rain at CVG and 4.72 inches of rain in Greenville. This goes from Sunday 1201am - Thursday 1201am.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:44 pm Good Afternoon and mowed the grass this morning and was surprise the ground was wet and ended up with about 6/10ths of an inch yesterday which surprised me. Going to make 2 predictions and this is with rainfall through Wednesday. 1.44 inches of rain at CVG and 4.72 inches of rain in Greenville. This goes from Sunday 1201am - Thursday 1201am.

Wow! I'd take an inch plus! I am rooting on your call Tim!

Wow! What a wet morning here! It's been raining for the last 2 or 3 hours imby. Looked at the radar and a nice cell developed and very slowly strengthened and moved right over me, CVG, etc. Totals right now:

CVG - 0.70"
Me: 0.76"
Boone Co Mesonet: 0.68"

The Dome has been broken, the yard is saved!

Update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak upper level disturbance and an associated mid level
deformation axis will pivot very slowly northward across
southeast portions of our area through this afternoon. Isolated
to scattered showers are occurring with this, mainly along and
southeast of the I-71 corridor. Will continue with some lower
end chance pops into this afternoon to account for this. Low
instabilities should help limit thunder, but these showers will
be slow moving. The combination of northeast low level flow and
a fair amount of clouds across much of the area, will help keep
temperatures on the cooler side with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 70s.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 8:50 am Wow! What a wet morning here! It's been raining for the last 2 or 3 hours imby. Looked at the radar and a nice cell developed and very slowly strengthened and moved right over me, CVG, etc. Totals right now:

CVG - 0.70"
Me: 0.76"
Boone Co Mesonet: 0.68"

The Dome has been broken, the yard is saved!

Awesome news bro! Now spread this my way! Lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 8:50 am Wow! What a wet morning here! It's been raining for the last 2 or 3 hours imby. Looked at the radar and a nice cell developed and very slowly strengthened and moved right over me, CVG, etc. Totals right now:

CVG - 0.70"
Me: 0.76"
Boone Co Mesonet: 0.68"

The Dome has been broken, the yard is saved!

Dang Les , thats fabulous . Been working in the yard all morning here. Now waiting my turn.

Good Morning and got another 6/10ths this morning so 1.2 since Friday. Lets see how much we can add to those totals this week. Leaving for Greenville Monday morning and expecting lots of rainfall there this week but not to hot but of course steamy.

Thank you all! Glad I got my yard work done yesterday. Worked out perfectly! Tim... safe travels my friend when you go back down south. For those waiting for some rain for their lawns and gardens, most of it has weakened and a few isolated downpours leftover. May have to wait honestly until tomorrow and really, at anytime over the next week as Fred approaches. I am feeling better about our rain chances for the next week for sure.

Congrats to those who have had some cashing in this weekend!

Currently 77 here in Greenville.

I touched 78 earlier when the sun was out. 76 now with the clouds back.

Per the NWS in Fairbanks, this is for you Tim!

Summer is really trying to come to a close in parts of northern Alaska. On and off snow is forecast for higher elevations of the Brooks Range through Tuesday. Around 5 inches of snow is expected at Atigun Pass along the Dalton Highway. Snow is not uncommon in mid-August in the Brooks Range and it looks like this year is no exception.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 4:42 pm Per the NWS in Fairbanks, this is for you Tim!

Summer is really trying to come to a close in parts of northern Alaska. On and off snow is forecast for higher elevations of the Brooks Range through Tuesday. Around 5 inches of snow is expected at Atigun Pass along the Dalton Highway. Snow is not uncommon in mid-August in the Brooks Range and it looks like this year is no exception.


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I should post this on FB. See how many haters come out of the closet. LOL

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 6:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 4:42 pm Per the NWS in Fairbanks, this is for you Tim!

Summer is really trying to come to a close in parts of northern Alaska. On and off snow is forecast for higher elevations of the Brooks Range through Tuesday. Around 5 inches of snow is expected at Atigun Pass along the Dalton Highway. Snow is not uncommon in mid-August in the Brooks Range and it looks like this year is no exception.


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I should post this on FB. See how many haters come out of the closet. LOL

They will just blame it on climate change LOL

Looks like a soggy doggie week for the next 7 games Redlegs home stand, but we all could definitely use some more rain. It'll feel like tropical convection Miami for the Marlins next weekend.

So gotta throw this out there - my nerves are getting the better of me in regards to next weeks rainfall at least for my hood. I can’t ignore how many times I have seen similar situations where most (if not all) of the moisture stays east of I-71 (the apparent second major weather barrier right behind I-70). Hopefully I am wrong and I can also get some decent rains but not feeling super optimistic

LOL! For the first half of next week, the 18Z GFS has some rain SE of I-71 then shifts it NW of I-71 leaving some of us in no mans land. I believe you were mentioning this Mike?

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 8:42 pm LOL! For the first half of next week, the 18Z GFS has some rain SE of I-71 then shifts it NW of I-71 leaving some of us in no mans land. I believe you were mentioning this Mike?

Yuppers

Looks like a cloudy, drizzly day with temps in the 70s for highs. I've had a ground wetter so far this morning. CVG actually recorded 0.01" so far. POPS continue on a daily basis along with the 80s for the rest of the week and really into this weekend also.

Really pouring now... wow! Wasn't expecting this.