July 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z Euro is swinging for the fences... over 3" at CVG on Saturday thanks to an MCS.

[tron777]

Cut off low for next week stays to the south. So you all get nice weather as well as me in Mich. Euro solution looks good if it pans out of course.

[tron777]

For now.. MD issued - watch unlikely to be issued:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1266.html

[tron777]

83 here and at CVG for the high today. Nice breeze now from a nearby outflow boundary. Temp has dropped a bit as a result. Probably means no more rain for a while here. Most everything looks to stay to the NW of the Metro - mainly LOU region and counties over SE IN.

[Bgoney]

Another shutout here last 24hrs. Carbon copy of yesterday's weather. 50% of scattered heavy downpours. 100% in Tim's backyard. Very little chance for severe criteria. A shower could pulse to strong but with low shear sustaining it would be short lived. Rest of week unchanged . 20% wed/Thurs before things ramp up Friday/Saturday

[cloudy72]

So my dome has definitely taken this week off - since Saturday, have picked up 2.62" rain.

[tron777]

I've seen over an inch... probably 1.15" or something to that affect. Hope to see folks get it who need it today. Wed and Thurs are slim to none before chances return Fri and the weekend... esp on Sat the way things continue to look.

[tpweather]

Another shutout here last 24hrs. Carbon copy of yesterday's weather. 50% of scattered heavy downpours. 100% in Tim's backyard. Very little chance for severe criteria. A shower could pulse to strong but with low shear sustaining it would be short lived. Rest of week unchanged . 20% wed/Thurs before things ramp up Friday/Saturday

I am calling uncle as another round overnight and rain this morning. My total is nearing 3 inches and I live probably live 10 miles east of Les. Will be interesting as Thursday and maybe most of Friday may be dry and getting rather warm. Plenty of sun is possible and this can get the atmosphere charged up again and this could lead to heavy rain later Friday and Saturday. If we get lucky the front makes it through and an nicer brand of air arrives but as we know this time of year fronts always have a hard time moving to far south.

[tron777]

I just had a passing shower, which wet the ground again. Probably another 0.01-0.02" or so. I am nickeling and diming my way like in winter.

[tron777]

1.4" is CVG's event total thus far thru about 6am this morning.

[tron777]

More and more guidance continues to latch on to the idea of the front getting thru and stalling over SKY or the TN Valley. If correct, cooler and drier weather by about Tues or so of next week for you guys. Probably almost the entire time for me in Mich with minimal shower chances. Weather looks perfect up there.

[Bgoney]

Another shutout here last 24hrs. Carbon copy of yesterday's weather. 50% of scattered heavy downpours. 100% in Tim's backyard. Very little chance for severe criteria. A shower could pulse to strong but with low shear sustaining it would be short lived. Rest of week unchanged . 20% wed/Thurs before things ramp up Friday/Saturday

I am calling uncle as another round overnight and rain this morning. My total is nearing 3 inches and I live probably live 10 miles east of Les. Will be interesting as Thursday and maybe most of Friday may be dry and getting rather warm. Plenty of sun is possible and this can get the atmosphere charged up again and this could lead to heavy rain later Friday and Saturday. If we get lucky the front makes it through and an nicer brand of air arrives but as we know this time of year fronts always have a hard time moving to far south.

Thats it Tim, pack your bags, you are staying at my house, a day or two should be enough for a good soaking. In exchange all the free beer and pizza to your liking. I'll throw in gas money.

[tpweather]

Another shutout here last 24hrs. Carbon copy of yesterday's weather. 50% of scattered heavy downpours. 100% in Tim's backyard. Very little chance for severe criteria. A shower could pulse to strong but with low shear sustaining it would be short lived. Rest of week unchanged . 20% wed/Thurs before things ramp up Friday/Saturday

I am calling uncle as another round overnight and rain this morning. My total is nearing 3 inches and I live probably live 10 miles east of Les. Will be interesting as Thursday and maybe most of Friday may be dry and getting rather warm. Plenty of sun is possible and this can get the atmosphere charged up again and this could lead to heavy rain later Friday and Saturday. If we get lucky the front makes it through and an nicer brand of air arrives but as we know this time of year fronts always have a hard time moving to far south.

Thats it Tim, pack your bags, you are staying at my house, a day or two should be enough for a good soaking. In exchange all the free beer and pizza to your liking. I'll throw in gas money.

Les I am taking you up on the offer lol. You got me at free beer. Have a nice trip and glad the weather is looking good. I hope that front makes it through the local area early next week but I always worry that in mid-July fronts tend to stall or just sit around before they fall apart. Going to try and mow this morning when the lawn is dry and again twice a week mowing.

[tron777]

Another shutout here last 24hrs. Carbon copy of yesterday's weather. 50% of scattered heavy downpours. 100% in Tim's backyard. Very little chance for severe criteria. A shower could pulse to strong but with low shear sustaining it would be short lived. Rest of week unchanged . 20% wed/Thurs before things ramp up Friday/Saturday

I am calling uncle as another round overnight and rain this morning. My total is nearing 3 inches and I live probably live 10 miles east of Les. Will be interesting as Thursday and maybe most of Friday may be dry and getting rather warm. Plenty of sun is possible and this can get the atmosphere charged up again and this could lead to heavy rain later Friday and Saturday. If we get lucky the front makes it through and an nicer brand of air arrives but as we know this time of year fronts always have a hard time moving to far south.

Thats it Tim, pack your bags, you are staying at my house, a day or two should be enough for a good soaking. In exchange all the free beer and pizza to your liking. I'll throw in gas money.

Les I am taking you up on the offer lol. You got me at free beer. Have a nice trip and glad the weather is looking good. I hope that front makes it through the local area early next week but I always worry that in mid-July fronts tend to stall or just sit around before they fall apart. Going to try and mow this morning when the lawn is dry and again twice a week mowing.

My luck is not as good as Tim's but I can't turn down an offer like that either.

[Bgoney]

I have a total .60" in the last 12 days so I'm ready for any and all gully washers

[tron777]

I have a total .60" in the last 12 days so I'm ready for any and all gully washers

My Brother is quite a ways west of you in Day Heights and he always gets the rain it seems like. That place, and the city of Milford too, seems to get most of the action leaving the eastern part of the country where you are mainly dry.

[tpweather]

The good news is the monsoon season is starting in the southwest part of the USA. That is about right on time and they need a nice season as it has been dry even for that area. Will this aid in helping push some of the heat further east and the answer is yes but what we are seeing is the heat being pushed across the northern plains into the upper midwest which is rather common as well. Again if we get a dry spell next week then we would start out rather nice with temps in the low-mid 80's but could try and inch up towards 90 but again with so much wet ground this sometimes can help in getting more showers and thundershowers to develop.

[tron777]

The bulk of the heat does shift east in time from the Pacific NW / Western US area to the S Rockies / 4 Corners Area towards the end of the month. Still for us, I see a relative NW flow and a weakness in the 500 MB pattern for weak troughiness to continue for the OV. Decent agreement on the idea from the Ensembles at this point. Basically in English more of the same is in the offing for us.

[tron777]

A gloomy morning in progress with more light development over the area. Looks like a copy of yesterday to me before chances decrease Wed and Thurs.

[tpweather]

Les make it stop lol.

[tron777]

Les make it stop lol.

Had another pavement wetter here. Sun is out briefly. Next cell should miss me and probably is aimed right at your hood Tim.

[tron777]

Nice cell over Hamilton (the city) again this morning. That seems to be a daily occurrence.

[cloudy72]

Nice cell over Hamilton (the city) again this morning. That seems to be a daily occurrence.

It is amazing how my hood can go from "king of the domes - deflect anything you see", to the rainfall magnet of Ohio. LOL Not that I am complaining!

[tron777]

Nice cell over Hamilton (the city) again this morning. That seems to be a daily occurrence.

It is amazing how my hood can go from "king of the domes - deflect anything you see", to the rainfall magnet of Ohio. LOL Not that I am complaining!

I get enough rain to get by here... saving my luck for winter.

[cloudy72]

Nice cell over Hamilton (the city) again this morning. That seems to be a daily occurrence.

Deja Vue - another one! LOL