Absolute Vorticity

for me this has been a nickel and dime winter. every system has been a 1-3" type event " or less " but they have been numerous . one thing it does not seam as cold as it was back in Jan. the models have been overdoing the cold a little bit i think but overall still seasonal cold feeling .

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 8:02 am for me this has been a nickel and dime winter. every system has been a 1-3" type event " or less " but they have been numerous . one thing it does not seam as cold as it was back in Jan. the models have been overdoing the cold a little bit i think but overall still seasonal cold feeling .

I never expected Feb to be as cold as Jan. However, I do think we'll have a decent period of below avg temps for the second half of the month. I am basing this on MJO Phases 8 then 1 which should give us more favorable teleconnections. One thing that is 100% legit is that there will be no shortage of storm systems.

For this weekend, I am going with rain on Sat ending as some flakes on Sunday. Then we are cold for Pres Day into Tues. Then, I am watching for another possible event around the 19th. GFS and CMC have the energy suppressed with the Euro / Euro AI / EPS showing a light to moderate snow event. About 1/2 of the 12Z GEFS members have it.

This is the next decent window IMO.

Good Evening and not sure where to put the news so I picked this area. My mom died this morning and she is finally heading to her heaven. She was very religious and just wish her peace. She was 92 and for the most part very healthy until she broke her first hip about 12 years ago. Will be busy this week and probably next week as we make plans and that includes my son coming in from Wisconsin. So yes I will still be here at times and does help in keeping your mind busy.

Tim, I am so sorry for your loss. I lost my mother in 1997 and it was very difficult and I think of her almost daily. There is no love like a mother's love!! I hope that you will find peace and comfort and know that those of us on this forum will be praying for you and your family!!! I do know that she will live in your heart forever!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 8:08 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 8:02 am for me this has been a nickel and dime winter. every system has been a 1-3" type event " or less " but they have been numerous . one thing it does not seam as cold as it was back in Jan. the models have been overdoing the cold a little bit i think but overall still seasonal cold feeling .

I never expected Feb to be as cold as Jan. However, I do think we'll have a decent period of below avg temps for the second half of the month. I am basing this on MJO Phases 8 then 1 which should give us more favorable teleconnections. One thing that is 100% legit is that there will be no shortage of storm systems.

i agree and i also think we will most likely reach our seasonal snowfall averages this winter by the time its over by mid March or so. i am just over half way there now.

So sorry for your loss, Tim and family, and prayers and condolences with you all.

CVG got to 41 and both DAY / CMH 38 today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 6:01 pm Good Evening and not sure where to put the news so I picked this area. My mom died this morning and she is finally heading to her heaven. She was very religious and just wish her peace. She was 92 and for the most part very healthy until she broke her first hip about 12 years ago. Will be busy this week and probably next week as we make plans and that includes my son coming in from Wisconsin. So yes I will still be here at times and does help in keeping your mind busy.

I'm so sorry Tim. My prayers are with you and your family. I'm a text or phone call away if you need anything or need to talk down the road.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 8:08 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2025 8:02 am for me this has been a nickel and dime winter. every system has been a 1-3" type event " or less " but they have been numerous . one thing it does not seam as cold as it was back in Jan. the models have been overdoing the cold a little bit i think but overall still seasonal cold feeling .

I never expected Feb to be as cold as Jan. However, I do think we'll have a decent period of below avg temps for the second half of the month. I am basing this on MJO Phases 8 then 1 which should give us more favorable teleconnections. One thing that is 100% legit is that there will be no shortage of storm systems.

i agree and i also think we will most likely reach our seasonal snowfall averages this winter by the time its over by mid March or so. i am just over half way there now.

We need about 3 inches or so at CVG to reach our season norms so IMO it should be very easy to make it to above avg levels this year. CVG is at 20.5" on the season going into the event today.

No changes guys to the weekend forecast after seeing the overnight models. Rain Sat ending as some flakes on Sunday. Still digging the 19-20th for a snow storm. All 3 global models are showing this system in one form or another.

Qpf for the next week. 2-4” expected up-river.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 8:18 am Qpf for the next week. 2-4” expected up-river.


IMG_3189.png

The OH river no doubt will need to be watched in the next several weeks if not sooner. For anyone who is interested or needs info follow the OHRFC website for details.

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/

The Saturday into Sunday system is beginning to look a lot more interesting on the models. We start out as rain, but there looks to be a pretty decent period of accumulating snow as the colder air comes in.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:50 am The Saturday into Sunday system is beginning to look a lot more interesting on the models. We start out as rain, but there looks to be a pretty decent period of accumulating snow as the colder air comes in.

How fast do we change to snow is key for Sunday. We will have falling temps during the day so the cold air isn't a problem. How much moisture do we have to work with on the backside is the key to success with that one.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:59 am

dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:50 am The Saturday into Sunday system is beginning to look a lot more interesting on the models. We start out as rain, but there looks to be a pretty decent period of accumulating snow as the colder air comes in.

How fast do we change to snow is key for Sunday. We will have falling temps during the day so the cold air isn't a problem. How much moisture do we have to work with on the backside is the key to success with that one.

Right now the trend is our friend. The last couple of model runs show a pretty good hit for Ohio including AV land. The Euro, CMC, and GFS are in our good agreement at the moment. Hopefully this will continue to trend into a nice storm.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 2:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:59 am

dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:50 am The Saturday into Sunday system is beginning to look a lot more interesting on the models. We start out as rain, but there looks to be a pretty decent period of accumulating snow as the colder air comes in.

How fast do we change to snow is key for Sunday. We will have falling temps during the day so the cold air isn't a problem. How much moisture do we have to work with on the backside is the key to success with that one.

Right now the trend is our friend. The last couple of model runs show a pretty good hit for Ohio including AV land. The Euro, CMC, and GFS are in our good agreement at the moment. Hopefully this will continue to trend into a nice storm.

It's going to be interesting for sure.

I would like to thank everybody with the kind words concerning my mom's passing. She was a sweet lady who is finally home.

Praying for your family Tim. Even when we know it’s time, it’s never easy. May her memory be a blessing.

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 6:03 pm Praying for your family Tim. Even when we know it’s time, it’s never easy. May her memory be a blessing.

Thanks Leslie. She spent the last 3 years in a nursing home but had really declined over the past 6 months or so. She is at peace and finally home

Tim , sorry to hear. Prayers going your way

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 6:15 pm Tim , sorry to hear. Prayers going your way

Thanks Bgoney. She is at peace and that is the main item.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2025 5:52 pm I would like to thank everybody with the kind words concerning my mom's passing. She was a sweet lady who is finally home.

Anytime Tim! Just over a year later after my Dad's passing and we are still grieving. I often wonder if it'll get any easier. I think it's okay though as it keeps me thinking about him everyday so I'll never lose the good times that we had with him.

We could get a nice soaking of an inch or more if some of these NW low solutions are right for the Sat and Sun system. Of course as I say that the 18Z GFS went back south lol Anyway... the main item of concern should heavy rain materialize is localized flooding esp in areas that saw today then the secondi concern is rain changing to snow sometime after Midnight Sat night into Sun morning with the deformation snows. Low track and strength of the low will be determining factors.

CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 35 today.