Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:40 am

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:38 am So far 06z euro Aifs stays the same FWIW
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Awesome track for us!

Almost perfect and that scares me lol

It is frightening isn't it? We aren't used to this.

I remember sleetfest 2024. I don't want a repeat.

Looks like the mean for CVG is near 7.5 with a few above a foot and Indy is around 8 but a few nearing the 20 inch mark. The nam on the last run was much better than yesterday and hopefully that trend continues today.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:43 am I remember sleetfest 2024. I don't want a repeat.

Bingo! We have had a couple of those in the 2020s. I'm all set, thanks!

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:45 am Looks like the mean for CVG is near 7.5 with a few above a foot and Indy is around 8 but a few nearing the 20 inch mark. The nam on the last run was much better than yesterday and hopefully that trend continues today.

Thank you Tim. Also for CVG, check the Precip type too and see what it is showing. Thanks!

09 sref South a little bit and came in stronger.

Not only is the storm exciting but the cold coming in the next few weeks will keep snow on the ground for quite a long time. If we can keep snow of the ground for a week it seems huge but this could be 2-3 weeks the way I see the pattern shaping up

Les even during the late Sunday early morning Monday the type for snow is still over 40p/c chance with sleet and frz/rain around 10p/c and even rain around 7 p/c.

What I love about the latest sref is you have more members above the mean than below. Always a good sign and not one of those wacky ones where one model shows 20 inches and the mean is distorted because of that one member

Les I have not look at this many models runs in years.

Shortwave arriving on the west coast

Thank you all! Man that 9Z SREF was a nice improvement. 12Z NAM one would think should follow suit.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:57 am Les I have not look at this many models runs in years.

LOL! You are upping your game now!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:02 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:57 am Les I have not look at this many models runs in years.

LOL! You are upping your game now!

Model model on the wall who’s the fairest of them all

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:02 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:57 am Les I have not look at this many models runs in years.

LOL! You are upping your game now!

Lol if I only had a game to begin with

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:02 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:57 am Les I have not look at this many models runs in years.

LOL! You are upping your game now!

Model model on the wall who’s the fairest of them all

I am rooting for the Canadian model please for 1000 Alex

12z nam 12km will be south of 06z. There’s more ridging forcing it down at 36hours

What I can see from the Nam so far and this is comparing from 24 hours ago but the low in Colorado yesterday was 998 and today 1000. Great Post Phr0z3n about the ridging

No doubt the high in south central Canada is stronger than yesterday and more what is was like earlier in the week. Very good sign my friends

Surface low at 39 hours is a little bit south and stronger

Stronger and more north at h45. Not a lot though

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:02 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:57 am Les I have not look at this many models runs in years.

LOL! You are upping your game now!

Model model on the wall who’s the fairest of them all

The one that gives me the most snow of course!

Great posts guys! Love seeing the low come in a bit stronger and more southerly. Those are good trends for the Tri-state. Icing concerns could be more in line for Central KY which again, would be wonderful news for us if correct.

Have you noticed that this is starting to look like a Miller B. The blocking high to the north is moving with the surface low.

Do we want this system to be slower or a little faster to keep us more on the snow side?

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:22 am Do we want this system to be slower or a little faster to keep us more on the snow side?

What a great question. I would say a tad faster as the front end is going to be all snow and and extra hour or two can only help