January 2025 Wx Discussion

[tron777]

18Z GFS offers up a dusting to 1" of snow Sun after midnight thru Mon morning with that little clipper system. Then we go into the deep freeze and await our fate by next Fri / weekend. Rain to flakes or another winter storm? You make the call! ®

[tron777]

23 / 2 at CVG today. One of the colder days so far this season.

[Bgoney]

23 / 2 at CVG today. One of the colder days so far this season.

It actually felt rather comfortable this afternoon with that sun and no winds

[tron777]

23 / 2 at CVG today. One of the colder days so far this season.

It actually felt rather comfortable this afternoon with that sun and no winds

It did! Took the garbage out to the curb in just a sweat shirt lol

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 26, DAY 28 and CMH 27 today.

[tron777]

Good morning guys! Anybody game for another snow storm next weekend? Check out the GFS, esp the 6Z run. Euro has been trying to hint at it too. A risk of a cutter is on the table like the 0Z CMC / GEFS showed with rain to snow being the result. At this time, we will continue to keep that one eye open on this system as our possible next thread maker.

[fyrfyter]

12z GFS looks similar. We are literally riding the line once again. Seems to be getting that icy look, pushing the 540 well North of us.

[tron777]

12z GFS looks similar. We are literally riding the line once again. Seems to be getting that icy look, pushing the 540 well North of us.

I'm interested to see how the deep snowpack (even SW of us) will impact this system in the coming days. Euro is trying to cook up something too.

[tron777]

12Z Euro AI has a 2 part storm like the Euro for 18-20st period. Some rain on the 18th then a second, much stronger piece tracks from the Gulf into WV the heads East. Nice snow storm on this run, so we'll see what happens. Good case scenario for us to maintain snowpack going into Feb if we can dodge a lot of rain next weekend.

[tron777]

In the short term... watch the little clipper early Mon morning. Still think a dusting is possible with an isolated spot getting up to 1". Wed ish do we get a stripe of snow from another clipper or a miss to the SW towards LOU? Then we watch next weekend for potential mischief. Behind that potential storm looks to be the coldest air of the season too!

[tpweather]

Good evening. Nice to see more snow and see if a couple minor systems over the next 5 or 6 days. Ratio's will be high with any moisture we can mustard up. Then we have a so-called January Thaw and yes this can get us out of the deep freeze of next week but also can lead to another stormy period. What forms and way to early but normally models will try and warm us up to fast especially at the surface and that is something we need to watch later next week and the weekend. This pattern is one that can cause the frz/rain problem especially at the start of the warm up. Many times models will just show rain when in reality we are still very cold at the surface. Will watch that say for the 16-20th period. Most likely we will have a couple of storms during the last half of the month and that does not include any clippers that may arise. What a great January and hopefully end up with a bang. Still believe February will be milder and sure always a little tough with the extra snow and ice on the ground but watch the mjo to see if by early February we are in those warmer phases and Mother Nature will try and even things out before winter is over imo.

[tron777]

Good evening. Nice to see more snow and see if a couple minor systems over the next 5 or 6 days. Ratio's will be high with any moisture we can mustard up. Then we have a so-called January Thaw and yes this can get us out of the deep freeze of next week but also can lead to another stormy period. What forms and way to early but normally models will try and warm us up to fast especially at the surface and that is something we need to watch later next week and the weekend. This pattern is one that can cause the frz/rain problem especially at the start of the warm up. Many times models will just show rain when in reality we are still very cold at the surface. Will watch that say for the 16-20th period. Most likely we will have a couple of storms during the last half of the month and that does not include any clippers that may arise. What a great January and hopefully end up with a bang. Still believe February will be milder and sure always a little tough with the extra snow and ice on the ground but watch the mjo to see if by early February we are in those warmer phases and Mother Nature will try and even things out before winter is over imo.

No doubt the warm up is coming Tim but will it come before or after Valentine's Day is the question. Somewhere in there this pattern will break. But I do think at the very least, it hangs on for the rest of January. Maybe into early Feb if things work out right.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / CMH reached 24 and DAY 26 on Fri.

[tpweather]

Of course put the longer term forecast in the incorrect area. Shorten post and a January Thaw late in the week and yes models will be to warm next Thursday and Friday as it never takes into account snow cover until maybe a day or so before the date. By next Saturday and that should be the best day of melting and temps get closer to what models show. We will have an arctic front sometime next weekend into the early part of the following week. Looks to a wide outbreak and with still plenty of snow cover where will it set up shop. The nao is turning positive but how strong and how long and even the ao as well. The Pna still running positive though and this helps bring cold air into the country as well. Again give it until about Tuesday or Wednesday and we see what the new pattern may look like but at the moment another round of cold storminess should start to hit here sometime next weekend. Will watch for fr/rain as well and though air temps may get above 32 does not mean surface temps will reach that as quickly and still by then some side roads will still have snow and ice on them anyway

[tron777]

CVG is up to 14.2" for just the month of January. Below are the Top Ten snowiest Januarys at CVG. We're getting close to cracking the Top Ten already, wow!

CVg JAn Snow Top Ten.png

Thanks Tim for talking temps in your above post. I will talk precipitation. Our next shot for snow is Sun night into early Mon. Still thinking a dusting to an isolated 1" case are possible. Then can we get another one for Wed? The short answer is no. Models have sped up that clipper to Tues evening so I will do the same. Again, not a huge deal with that one, just a few snow showers and another covering possible.

The bigger deal will be towards next weekend. Models are even in more disagreement this morning then they were yesterday. Cold and dry... rain to snow, a couple different pieces of energy? We'll just have to wait and see how things look once we get closer.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and great post and just need to wait until probably the middle of the week to see how the pattern develops. January Thaw and sure but this is not the kind where you have several days in the 40's and 50's. Matter of fact may be lucky to get 1 day in the 40's and that would be ahead of the arctic front but of course the timing would have much to say about that as well. With the nao going positive we know the gfs will just have systems flying by and that model is usually to quick so give it until mid-week. The nao and ao both look to go positive but not that strong of a signal so both should turn negative once again.

We need 6 inches to get into the top 5 and the pattern at least gives us a chance. Heading out to shovel shortly and 3 inches seems correct on the total from yesterday. Still a tad concern Sunday night and early Monday and though the clipper is north of here many times you get enough moisture and it turns out to be frz/drizzle. Sure we may see 32 on Sunday but the roads not so much an especially side streets and sidewalks. Then the next clipper for later Tuesday should be snow and again ratios quite high so even a small amount of precip can add up. Coldest morning either Wednesday or Thursday and yes this cold blast is stronger than this past week so this time zero should be in the bag as expect a better shot of a clear sky and lighter wind. Last week though cold it was just not enough to get rid of the low level moisture which ended up with clouds and some low lying fog which kept temps up at night

[tron777]

Tim, I am thinking the same. We'll get a day or two above freezing (like mid and upper 30s) then go back below for a while after that system passes. Black ice will be a concern going forward. We'll thaw a bit in the afternoons then re-freeze overnight. So going to work or school each morning next week... we need to proceed with caution.

[tron777]

No change from the 12Z GFS on the first clipper but the second one has flared up a bit for Tues afternoon and evening. QPF at CVG is 0.04" with each one so if correct, an inch plus of snow is possible from both clippers combined. We'll take it! A nice little stat padder lol

For Fri night and esp next Sat... rain from the 12Z GFS then turning sharply colder. Flash freeze??? I sure hope not. 12Z CMC is even worse with a big cutter and some heavier rain. Not what I want to see. It would certainly work on nuking our wonderful snow pack. Hope to see things change and trend colder due to the snow pack. I am probably grasping at straws though.

[tron777]

The GFS today is suppressing the energy needed for a secondary storm once we're on the cold side. Past Euro runs have been trying to cook something up. Today's 12Z CMC does also.

[tpweather]

Les I believe the gfs is a tad quick and do like the CMC so far. A few things and normally when we get these true arctic fronts and this one is really the best we have seen this season is we have one round of milder and rainy weather and then a second system will form near the gulf coast. How far south does the arctic front go will be key and by then the snow say from Tn and south will have been melted even before the first storm. Going to watch the southeast ridge as well and has been rather quiet but need to see if that becomes a decent part of any forecast. Again we are 6 days away from the 1st storm but nice to see the models playing their normal bias this far out lol.

[Bgoney]

33 here . Some great snow man making temps out there

[tpweather]

Yes and this current air mass is milder than what we saw after the last storm. Of course short-lived but will take any warming for snow removal. My sidewalk and driveway are completely ice free and with the added sun today drying up as well. Looking forward to some rain late in the week for just a little clean up on the roads but that will be short-lived as well.

[tron777]

I never thought we'd get above freezing today. Wow! So much for getting a big streak going.

[tron777]

Yes and this current air mass is milder than what we saw after the last storm. Of course short-lived but will take any warming for snow removal. My sidewalk and driveway are completely ice free and with the added sun today drying up as well. Looking forward to some rain late in the week for just a little clean up on the roads but that will be short-lived as well.

I'm all about maintaining our pack now.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is uneventful. Nothing from the 1st clipper and only 0.02" from the second. For Sat... a tenth of an inch of a wintry mix then we turn dry and cold.