Absolute Vorticity

Well this isn’t any fun…. We all agree!!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:32 am Well this isn’t any fun…. We all agree!!!

LOL

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:36 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:32 am Well this isn’t any fun…. We all agree!!!

LOL

Give it a few hours. We'll find something to disagree on before too long.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:53 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:36 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:32 am Well this isn’t any fun…. We all agree!!!

LOL

Give it a few hours. We'll find something to disagree on before too long.

I’ll start it off, you guys believe in Santa?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:56 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:53 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:36 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:32 am Well this isn’t any fun…. We all agree!!!

LOL

Give it a few hours. We'll find something to disagree on before too long.

I’ll start it off, you guys believe in Santa?

Yes I do! My Mom said many many years ago that if you stop believing, you stop getting!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:56 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:53 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:36 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:32 am Well this isn’t any fun…. We all agree!!!

LOL

Give it a few hours. We'll find something to disagree on before too long.

I’ll start it off, you guys believe in Santa?

When my sister and I were preschool or K age our folks took us to see the big guy at a Shillito's in Cincy. Shillito's another store that of course has bit the dust. I also remember once as a kid getting a mint-flavored ice cream soda at the Shillito's lunch counter.

Some favorite Santa scenes for me are "A Christmas Story" and "Elf". Also the scene where that character Miles decks Buddy in a meeting room.

Currently 54 here in G'ville.

12Z GFS has the front coming thru around the 20-21st then a second low running up the front which changes the rain to first flakes of the season at might. Then we get some kind of a cut off low. Very low confidence in terms of pattern and storm evolution that far out.

The upgrades from the ECMWF are coming out tomorrow. There’s a list of things that are over my head to be released to the public but the one thing I hope gets picked up by the freebie model sites is the EU Hres control out to 15 days, like the GFS , for our viewing pleasure

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 2:13 pm The upgrades from the ECMWF are coming out tomorrow. There’s a list of things that are over my head to be released to the public but the one thing I hope gets picked up by the freebie model sites is the EU Hres control out to 15 days, like the GFS , for our viewing pleasure

That would be awesome! The AI Euro goes out to 360 hours so why not the Op Euro too?

Low 60s for most folks on this gorgeous Veteran's Day! 30s next couple of nights so a bit chillier in the mornings they we have been seeing. Still nothing out of the ordinary. It is almost mid November already! Time is flying as we head into the Holiday Season.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 5:16 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 5:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:54 am

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:30 am It's mainly the oaks now in my hood for leaf droppage. Most everything else is about down.

Yes the good ole oaks, bradford pears. and ginkos up here. My bet is that most of the ginkos are down now. I will need to go look at a couple of clients that have those. I hate those. lol Got some maples that still have some left.

Oaks have big leaves too but if I recall, gingko leaves are even bigger so those have to be a pain to grind up.

I think the Gingkos are just a bit smaller than the oaks. But those definitely do not like going through the leaf loader. They won't really grind and clogged up the hose some. lol

Back to weather, 1.10 inches here. It's a start.

Thanks for the correction JP! Glad to see your area get some rain too. I know you all have been hurting this year for moisture.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:58 am 12Z GFS has the front coming thru around the 20-21st then a second low running up the front which changes the rain to first flakes of the season at might. Then we get some kind of a cut off low. Very low confidence in terms of pattern and storm evolution that far out.

You made me look. Interesting snowfall totals. lol

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:58 am 12Z GFS has the front coming thru around the 20-21st then a second low running up the front which changes the rain to first flakes of the season at might. Then we get some kind of a cut off low. Very low confidence in terms of pattern and storm evolution that far out.

You made me look. Interesting snowfall totals. lol

LOL! It's all fantasy of course this far out. I do think that colder look that is coming after the 20th is real. How intense and its duration are the unknowns.

Good Evening and I agree about all the above posts. The Shillitos's display was great and both my kids were able to enjoy that but I probably enjoyed it more watching them. I love Home Alone and yes corny but something about that movie I have always loved. Yes I believe in Santa Claus and that will never change. Busy on Tuesday but hopefully by Wednesday I will fine something we disagree on about the weather lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:06 pm Good Evening and I agree about all the above posts. The Shillitos's display was great and both my kids were able to enjoy that but I probably enjoyed it more watching them. I love Home Alone and yes corny but something about that movie I have always loved. Yes I believe in Santa Claus and that will never change. Busy on Tuesday but hopefully by Wednesday I will fine something we disagree on about the weather lol

Hi Tim, I love both Home Alone and Home Alone 2 also. A few weeks ago I found a pic of Macaulay Culkin and news report of him on my local WHIO7 website wearing a Joe Burrow uniform for Halloween as he kind of resembles Joe.

Progged for around 35 here in G'ville on Tues morning.

CVG got to 63, DAY 61 and CMH 60 on Veterans Day.

Good morning! Still 41 at CVG but most of you should be in the 30s right now.40 here currently. So we are tracking our next rain maker Wed night and esp Thurs morning. The AM Rush could be slow going. Expecting 1/2" of rain minimum with the chance at 3/4" now possible. I have raised up the amounts a bit. Then a nice Fri and weekend before our next system comes a calling Sun night into Mon of next week. This front looks weak.

Then we watch the tropics in the extended range as it may impact the timing of our stronger front due in after the 20th. Could be 21-23rd range now thanks tot he tropics. Then we do turn cooler. Any rain / snow TBD but it is looking cooler the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

Good Morning maybe a day below normal which is few and far between. Les I agree about the next system and I raised totals as well with 0.33-0.75 and again I believe most folks get at least the lower end and a few a tad above the high end. Nice to see systems able to produce some decent rains and just what the doctor ordered with the dry conditions in the summer and early fall. We stay busy with a system every 3-4 days and then later next week lets see how the tropics try and interact with the lower 48. Still not sold the storm itself hits the lower 48 but no doubt tropical moisture will be on the increase but further east than the last system. Yes we will turn colder but how cold and how long is a question that is not available at this time.

Tim... the biggest issue currently with the tropics will be the timing of that front coming after the 20th. I don't know if the two features will interact, or if the tropics will be a swing and a miss. What I do think is that the tropics causes the front to slow down so around the 21-23rd time range, is what I am currently going with in terms of the frontal passage. That can and probably will change once we see how the tropics ae behaving over the next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:24 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:58 am 12Z GFS has the front coming thru around the 20-21st then a second low running up the front which changes the rain to first flakes of the season at might. Then we get some kind of a cut off low. Very low confidence in terms of pattern and storm evolution that far out.

You made me look. Interesting snowfall totals. lol

LOL! It's all fantasy of course this far out. I do think that colder look that is coming after the 20th is real. How intense and its duration are the unknowns.

Yep, it's just fun to look at after no rain and very boring weather pattern.

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 8:10 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:24 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:58 am 12Z GFS has the front coming thru around the 20-21st then a second low running up the front which changes the rain to first flakes of the season at might. Then we get some kind of a cut off low. Very low confidence in terms of pattern and storm evolution that far out.

You made me look. Interesting snowfall totals. lol

LOL! It's all fantasy of course this far out. I do think that colder look that is coming after the 20th is real. How intense and its duration are the unknowns.

Yep, it's just fun to look at after no rain and very boring weather pattern.

For sure and who knows JP but we might be talking first flakes in the next 10 days or so. We'll see... some of the Ensembles are trying to indicate that with the upcoming pattern change.

Lots of uncertainty in the extended range due to blocking, a cut off upper low and the tropics. How will the period after 11/20 evolve? Todays 12Z GFS has the cut off low coming in providing several days of cool weather and showers. Then once the core of the upper low swings thru, first flakes of the season would be possible before Thanksgiving! Some interesting times ahead friends so stay tuned to AV for the latest! Get your friends and family to sign up too! It's always been free and will always be free as long as I have any say so. The more, the merrier right? Our favorite season is closing in on us! Snow Lovers and Snow Weenies Unite!®

Uncertainty is an understatement. What do models struggle with the most in forecasting? Exactly What you see coming up in the next 7-10 days , high latitude blocking (-NAO) and tropical mischief. Let the games continue!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 1:13 pm Uncertainty is an understatement. What do models struggle with the most in forecasting? Exactly What you see coming up in the next 7-10 days , high latitude blocking (-NAO) and tropical mischief. Let the games continue!!

That is the perfect recipe for incorrect forecasting. Models love doing the 180 dance in winter with blocking but add the tropics and my guess some wild outcomes on those models over the next week or so. No matter what happens we are able to put our thinking caps on compared to much of the summer and early fall season.