Absolute Vorticity

Jacob755 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 12:31 pm Delhi Township bottom out at 33° from my weather station

I'll have to check mine later when I get home, but I probably had the same as you.

For all of the forum coverage area:

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 degrees are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill sensitive
vegetation.

I had 30 here, but didn’t hurt any plants or flowers

The changes in the 500mb are too small to change the pattern for the central and eastern parts of the country. Still dominated by a sprawling ridge meandering back and forth in central parts of the US. A cutoff low gives minor qpf to the four corners area but the ridge weakens it to nothing further east, along with another warmup , mid 70s for a few days next week

I agree Bgoney.... we should be in the 70s starting this weekend thru perhaps Thurs of next week.

Official lows this morning around the region

The talk on social media is for a possible severe wx event for the OV sometime during the last week of the month. I have highlighted this period for a potential change to a more active pattern myself. With the ongoing drought, I do question the moisture return from the Gulf. As most of you know, you need good moisture from the Gulf with regards to getting a warm, moist and humid airmass to promote t-storm development. I do believe that we will see a good clash of the airmasses which is another ingredient. Things such as timing of the cold front IMO is also an unknown at this time. We'll keep an eye on it as we always do on this forum, but I don't think hyping this is a good idea due to the unknowns this far out.

I didn't see any graupel yesterday but CVG must have. Wow!

CVG got to 57, DAY 58 and CMH 52 today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:38 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:22 am First post in sometime. Light frost on the rooftops and cars here this morning. don't see any on the grass, Heading out in a little bit so I won't be surprised if I see some on the grass.

JP. Always good to see you post. Don't be a stranger lol

Hi Tim, Hope all is well with you. Thanks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:39 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:26 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:22 am First post in sometime. Light frost on the rooftops and cars here this morning. don't see any on the grass, Heading out in a little bit so I won't be surprised if I see some on the grass.

Welcome back, JP! I hope you've been doing well. Also hope you have time to post more often too.

Thanks Les. Hope you have been doing well too. Tis the season for snow weenies being hopeful.

Yep! We are inching closer! Might see our first Upper Midwest snow event by months end.

Seems like there is always snow around the time Halloween is here.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 9:22 am Great to see you back JP!

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around 55 today.

Thanks Eric. It was a tad bit chilly out there this morning.

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 6:22 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 9:22 am Great to see you back JP!

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around 55 today.

Thanks Eric. It was a tad bit chilly out there this morning.

I know what you mean bro. Yesterday evening my Dad and I brought our Geraniums into the sun room and placed them on firm plastic planter sheets, they're kind of like Weather Tech mats that a vehicle would have, we also brought Mums into the garage.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 1:19 pm The changes in the 500mb are too small to change the pattern for the central and eastern parts of the country. Still dominated by a sprawling ridge meandering back and forth in central parts of the US. A cutoff low gives minor qpf to the four corners area but the ridge weakens it to nothing further east, along with another warmup , mid 70s for a few days next week




IMG_2452.jpegIMG_2451.jpeg

Bgoney, those maps are great especially the bottom one. This is text book pattern in late October of a La Nina winter. Getting that cold in Canada and Alaska is a big part of us having a nice touch of winter in late November or early December. Those places need to get cold with plenty of snow cover. The USA for the most part is milder in the autumn season when we have a La Nina on the doorstep. Again not every La Nina will be the same as many other items to study as well but this part of the equation is not doubt shaping up the way we expected. What is another interesting part of this is when the USA stays mild for the most parts its the coasts on both sides that tend to get any decent cold weather in later October and November. So far the northeast has been much colder than normal with warming slow at best. The long term forecasts is showing warming in the northeast this time and a nice cold shot for the pacific northwest. This fits the pattern but what I don't like about long term forecasts is what happened last week when they had one day where they showed cold for us and then went directly back to above normal. That has not been the case and not sure what the NWS was looking at or is there more to that than we know.

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 6:20 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:38 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:22 am First post in sometime. Light frost on the rooftops and cars here this morning. don't see any on the grass, Heading out in a little bit so I won't be surprised if I see some on the grass.

JP. Always good to see you post. Don't be a stranger lol

Hi Tim, Hope all is well with you. Thanks.

Hey JP. Everything is going well and hope you and your family are doing well.

38 as of 4am at CVG, 34 here as of 4:30am. A bit warmer then yesterday at least down here. Winds are calm but the dewpoint is at 36 so a tad more humidity which won't allow the temps to bottom out. So in short, we are still waiting on our first big frost as well as a freeze which some of you may have already received to the north. Anyway... no changes to the ongoing forecast. It's a broken record. Clear nights, sunny days. The 60s today with the 30s again tonight. Then we warm into the U60s Fri and in the 70s for the weekend thru most of next week. Lows will warm back into the 40s to perhaps 50 or so later on next week.

I still do not see any significant rain chances until we get towards the end of the month. 0.15" is it for rainfall at CVG so another below avg month likely in the books by the time Halloween comes and goes.

31 here. EU did a good job regionally with the low temps this week.

CVG seems to be stuck at 37 so far.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 6:30 am CVG seems to be stuck at 37 so far.

Good Morning Les and you hit the nail on the head with a little more moisture in the air the temp can only dip so far. Outlying areas more than likely lower especially some of the valleys. I was out yesterday and got the old wind burn and it felt a tad chilly but that is fine with me. The forecast looks good and we need some rain but hope it does not happen on Halloween. I can remember going out as a kid and the worse weather was no doubt rain. Hopefully this boring weather ends in November and though we probably stay mild lets get some decent rains in here without the severe storms.

Btw the NWS in Fairbanks,Alaska is talking about the first true arctic air mass to include the entire state plus and bigger storm later Sunday and Monday. They are a tad below on snow this season but one storm can get them back to normal. Got a feeling that Alaska and much of Canada is going to be cold and snowy over the next 4-6 weeks and hopefully this lays down some decent snows which hopefully will help us out in getting some of that cold in here near Thanksgiving and beyond.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 6:39 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 6:30 am CVG seems to be stuck at 37 so far.

Good Morning Les and you hit the nail on the head with a little more moisture in the air the temp can only dip so far. Outlying areas more than likely lower especially some of the valleys. I was out yesterday and got the old wind burn and it felt a tad chilly but that is fine with me. The forecast looks good and we need some rain but hope it does not happen on Halloween. I can remember going out as a kid and the worse weather was no doubt rain. Hopefully this boring weather ends in November and though we probably stay mild lets get some decent rains in here without the severe storms.

Btw the NWS in Fairbanks,Alaska is talking about the first true arctic air mass to include the entire state plus and bigger storm later Sunday and Monday. They are a tad below on snow this season but one storm can get them back to normal. Got a feeling that Alaska and much of Canada is going to be cold and snowy over the next 4-6 weeks and hopefully this lays down some decent snows which hopefully will help us out in getting some of that cold in here near Thanksgiving and beyond.

Good morning Tim! I totally agree with this. The cold will be available this winter season, but the problem is going to be getting it into the Eastern US in my mind. AK / Western Canada should have a nice winter with the -PDO in place as well as the Western US the way I currently see things.

Hey Les and I agree and where will the trough in the west take place. Having it just offshore can be okay because we can get a trough over the eastern 1/3 of the nation sort of like we have in recent weeks. Again that is not the best solution for winter weather locally but it could allow some periods of cold weather though we would be on the western edge. November should hopefully gives us many clues about the upcoming winter like usual and though I agree with your thoughts 100p/c about the -pdo I can still see ways we at least get a few nice weeks with winter precip. As we know predicting snowfall totals is almost impossible but getting what the pattern may look like is somewhat easier

CVG is up to 39 now as of 7am. So somewhere around 36 or 37 was probably it at the Airport for the low. I had 34 when I left for work so I could see 33 for me, which was what I had yesterday morning. So far, HAO 32, ILN 33, and LUK 34.

EDIT: DAY 37, CMH 32

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:07 am CVG is up to 39 now as of 7am. So somewhere around 36 or 37 was probably it at the Airport for the low. I had 34 when I left for work so I could see 33 for me, which was what I had yesterday morning. So far, HAO 32, ILN 33, and LUK 34.

Les I will check on the frost once the sun is up. Yesterday was a heavy frost and would love to see one more this morning

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:07 am CVG is up to 39 now as of 7am. So somewhere around 36 or 37 was probably it at the Airport for the low. I had 34 when I left for work so I could see 33 for me, which was what I had yesterday morning. So far, HAO 32, ILN 33, and LUK 34.

Les I will check on the frost once the sun is up. Yesterday was a heavy frost and would love to see one more this morning

Cool, thanks Tim! Too much UHI for my hood thanks to Boone Co selling their souls to Amazon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 4:28 am

I still do not see any significant rain chances until we get towards the end of the month. 0.15" is it for rainfall at CVG so another below avg month likely in the books by the time Halloween comes and goes.

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