Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 10:10 am

MJSun wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 10:07 am Allergies are awful too because of all the dry air and ragweed.

Same here Mollie! it's been awful!

I can certainly relate, too, Mollie and Les!

Gets wearisome the histamines war and sneezing.

Both CVG / CMH reached 90 and DAY 89'ed on Wed.

Good morning all! We continue to bake with 90+ thru Sunday before relief comes next week. I am seeing some rain chances, albeit slim to start out the week. Then we get a cold front around mid week, which definitely looks to drop our temps down into the 70s which is normal for this time of year. The better temps come towards the second half of next week.

After that, all eyes are on the Gulf for the potential to see a big hurricane. It is currently looking like FL / East Coast gets impacted with this one as the next trough scoops it up and we get missed to the east. That idea can change, but it is the most likely scenario at this time. To note... the AI version of the Euro wants to bring it to the OV with a lot of wind and rain so I won't totally discount the idea, but for now, my thoughts are a swing and a miss.

It’s been an easy way to go as far as forecasting goes for temps and precipitation for several weeks with the way the 500mb pattern setup. Starting next week it starts to be a little more unpredictable. Is the GFS losing the influence of the Great Lakes high pressure on the OV to soon for early next week and a more southern push of rain ? Or more like the EU and keep most of the moisture to our north and west

The biggest challenge that I see right now is the potential hurricane in the Gulf and what impact will it have on the pattern? I have come out and said a swing and miss to the east at this time, but that can change of course since the system has not developed yet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 7:47 am The biggest challenge that I see right now is the potential hurricane in the Gulf and what impact will it have on the pattern? I have come out and said a swing and miss to the east at this time, but that can change of course since the system has not developed yet.

That too, but I’m looking more at the early week chance for rain amounts atm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 7:51 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 7:47 am The biggest challenge that I see right now is the potential hurricane in the Gulf and what impact will it have on the pattern? I have come out and said a swing and miss to the east at this time, but that can change of course since the system has not developed yet.

That too, but I’m looking more at the early week chance for rain amounts atm

Gotcha. I'd love to see some of the guidance be correct with the front being a slow mover and even a stall on top of us would also help with regards to rainfall amounts. We're still in a pretty blocky pattern with the Omega Block so I would favor a slower solution at this time with the location of best rains still TBD.

We also have to figure, for the early week rains , that amounts will be over done by models into our region due to the moisture traveling over another very dry part of the country before it reaches us and our dry grounds

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:54 am We also have to figure, for the early week rains , that amounts will be over done by models into our region due to the moisture traveling over another very dry part of the country before it reaches us and our dry grounds

Great post!

Expansion continues. Look at Ohio’s percentages of drought severity.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:25 am Expansion continues. Look at Ohio’s percentages of drought severity.


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Starting to see tumble weeds developing, the OV is not meant for having this desert type of climate! the next several days looks to really amplify this. Hopefully, we'll see SOME rain early next week!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:47 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:25 am Expansion continues. Look at Ohio’s percentages of drought severity.


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Starting to see tumble weeds developing, the OV is not meant for having this desert type of climate! the next several days looks to really amplify this. Hopefully, we'll see SOME rain early next week!

This September heat wave is really putting it over the top. 1988 had no such stretch of September heat and even had more moisture for the summer than summer 2024

I really wonder how the drought will impact moisture return as we head into the Fall and eventually the winter? Usually with a La Nina you see a northern stream dominated jet stream pattern instead of an STJ like with a Nino.

12Z GFS looks decent for rain chances early next week. Amounts TBD thanks to he drought. The hurricane is still expected to be a miss wide right at this time. 12Z GFS and 0Z Euro AI both are showing that solution.

Already 88, record at cvg is 94…..

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 1:00 pm Already 88, record at cvg is 94…..

The record for Fri is 95 and Sat 97 so those will probably remain safe. At least I hope so!

90 now as of 2pm at CVG.

92 at4 pm reading

92 was it per the 5pm climate report. Oh so close! I hit 91 today.

I don’t know if they got chased out of the big bean field but the outside of my house has been invaded by stink bugs

CVG got to 92, DAY 91 and CMH 89'ed today.

Good morning and Happy Friday to you all! 3 more hot days to go then we track rain chance sometime on Sun (low chance) with the better chances coming early next week. The 70s for highs (normal temps) return by the second half of next week. Some guidance has an inch plus of rain coming our way here soon but as we've discussed, tamper expectations thanks to the drought. Looks like we get rain chances thru about Wed of next week.

GEFs 5 day averages(anomaly )next 10 days, EU about the same . And the rest of the month normals (cvg) Poor Canada.

The above maps show ridging increasing over Eastern Canada / Hudson's Bay. For us to get sustained cooler weather, we would want a trough or an upper low there. Hopefully the 90s are at least coming to a close after this weekend.