August 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Hey Les, I start looking at places like Alaska which shows storminess in the western part of the state plus I start looking at better rain chance in the pacific northwest and northern plains. Do we get an extended period of above normal temps and its possible but once you get to late August and September those highs are in the low 80's instead of mid 80's plus longer nighttime hours as well. Again next week wonderful for the 3rd week of August and getting dew points in the ow 50's and maybe upper 40's is rare for this time of year. Hopefully this is the start of a wonderful fall season with temps just near normal will work for me.

[tpweather]

Outside of CVGs surrounding counties, most in the drought areas(aka, south of 71) received very little rain yesterday, anywhere from nothing to about half an inch. So hopefully more of the drought effected areas can get some action today before more extended dryness sets in

I agree and that area does look to be in the best place today and Sunday. Again mid-late summer and some folks will be left out but it does look very nice especially south and east of I-71. Should be a nice build-up of moisture ahead of the cold front which no doubt was a bad forecast by models earlier this week and once again models have problems with tropical systems and how they can hold up the pattern even if its only for a few days. The good thing is any rain helps and with temps and dew points heading south starting Monday any rain will hopefully soak in. Lawns can fight back first and usually not a problem but some vegetation has more problems in fighting back from dry conditions. I got 1.08 on Friday and really I started out this summer very dry compared to most but have recovered in the past 30 days or so though still a tad below normal. Good thing is besides earlier in June extended heat has stayed away for us and what could have been a hot summer is turning out rather normal

[MVWxObserver]

Had some very nice downpours early this morning here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Looks like a lone shower heading towards the local area. Again most folks will miss out on this but some could get a quick 1/10 of an inch plus this should not hamper us for development later today by any mean.

[tron777]

Outside of CVGs surrounding counties, most in the drought areas(aka, south of 71) received very little rain yesterday, anywhere from nothing to about half an inch. So hopefully more of the drought effected areas can get some action today before more extended dryness sets in

I agree and that area does look to be in the best place today and Sunday. Again mid-late summer and some folks will be left out but it does look very nice especially south and east of I-71. Should be a nice build-up of moisture ahead of the cold front which no doubt was a bad forecast by models earlier this week and once again models have problems with tropical systems and how they can hold up the pattern even if its only for a few days. The good thing is any rain helps and with temps and dew points heading south starting Monday any rain will hopefully soak in. Lawns can fight back first and usually not a problem but some vegetation has more problems in fighting back from dry conditions. I got 1.08 on Friday and really I started out this summer very dry compared to most but have recovered in the past 30 days or so though still a tad below normal. Good thing is besides earlier in June extended heat has stayed away for us and what could have been a hot summer is turning out rather normal

I will also agree with the best locations to be SE of I-71 especially for today's action. Visible looks good for some sunshine today and we've got some 30 knot bulk shear just off to the west.

[tpweather]

A brief shower this morning and it really felt like that might be the case has the humidity was so high this morning. Should break out in sunshine over the next few hours and then should see a uptick in showers and thundershowers I would say starting in the early afternoon northwest of here and working east/southeast during the later afternoon and evening. Hopefully more folks will cash in but not ruining any activities.

[tpweather]

A nice downpour as I added 0.13 to my total so up to 1.21 since Thursday. Totals like I have mentioned will be spread out wide over the 4 day period.

[tron777]

I'm in Milford at Cooper's football game. It's getting hot now with the sun out. Down 13-6 at the half.

[tron777]

Cooper's team ended up winning 14-13 and are 1-0 on the season. His brother, Colton won his first game as well 13-12. Colton's game next Saturday is a home game so will go and see him play then.

Weatherwise, nice little line of strong storms impacting our Eastern counties. Hopefully Bgoney was able to get in on that action. For the rest of us, the humidity and warmth is building. Most of the spotty showers are well N of I-70 in ILL and IN. 86 as of 1pm at CVG so a 90 degree day is certainly possible. Plenty of CAPE for the entire area but shear is lacking.

The latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Not much has changed regarding the expectations for storms
today, either in coverage or intensity/severity. Rapid
destabilization amidst an uncapped environment and sufficient
forcing is expected toward/beyond 16-18z, with CI expected to
follow soon afterwards. While there will be scattered storms just
about anywhere/everywhere, the greatest coverage (numerous)
thunderstorms should focus near/S of the I-71 corridor,
particularly near/S of a line from near Switzerland Co IN to
Fairfield Co OH. The greatest coverage and intensity of storms
should focus from 2 PM to 8 PM.

[tron777]

88 now at CVG.

EDIT: 89 now as of 3pm.

[Bgoney]

Got brushed with that line while still in the development stage , picked up .40” and happy to get that

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Mason County in northern Kentucky...
Robertson County in northern Kentucky...
Lewis County in northeastern Kentucky...
Southeastern Brown County in southwestern Ohio...
Southern Adams County in south central Ohio...
Scioto County in south central Ohio...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 312 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles east of West Union to 7 miles northwest of
Fairview, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Portsmouth, Maysville, Wheelersburg, Washington, New Boston,
Manchester, Aberdeen, Vanceburg, South Webster, Lewisburg,
Rosemount, Clarktown, Camp Dix, Rome, Lucasville, Foxport, Head of
Grassy, Tollesboro, Sciotodale, and Blue Creek.

[MVWxObserver]

Had a very nice dedication for a surprise mini arboretum in honor of a couple Mary Anne and Bob who reside in my neighborhood given by their son and stepson Brian. The breeze was nice, too, as it took the edge off of the humidity. Brian was decked out in a tree costume complete with 2 plush chipmunks or squirrels on the back of his costume. He also danced around as he came down the makeshift walkway.

Currently 79 here in G'ville and progged for around 86.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

1711 UNK 1 E Pitts Estill KY 3771 8387 Delayed social media report of downed large tree branches at 3135 Tipton Ridge Road. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

1739 UNK 1 NNE Mount Orab Brown OH 3904 8392 Single tree down near Kroger. Photo verified. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1835 UNK Peebles Adams OH 3895 8341 Trees down along Old State Route 32 in Peebles. (ILN)

1838 UNK 1 N Frankfort Franklin KY 3820 8486 Scattered minor tree damage reported in downtown Frankfort and on the east side of town. Estimated 900 to 950 people without power. (LMK)

1841 UNK 1 NW Roscoe Coshocton OH 4029 8189 Multiple trees down and small hail all along Hill Street and County Road 55 in Coshocton County (PBZ)

1846 UNK Manchester Adams OH 3869 8360 Power poles and lines down - time estimated. (ILN)

1846 100 1 S Oggs Station Montgomery KY 3801 8382 (JKL)

1846 100 1 N West Union Adams OH 3881 8354 (ILN)

1850 UNK 1 NE Wills Creek Coshocton OH 4019 8184 Tree down on powerlines. Powerlines caught on fire. Time estimated via radar. (PBZ)

1850 UNK 1 SSE Morgan Run Coshocton OH 4027 8178 Tree down into powerlines. Time estimated via radar. (PBZ)

1900 UNK Coshocton Coshocton OH 4029 8186 Large tree limbs/branches down (greater than 2 inches) (PBZ)

1905 UNK 9 NNE Tollesboro Lewis KY 3868 8349 Video from Concord area showing numerous branches down. Time estimated from RADAR. (ILN)

1906 UNK Sandy Hook Elliott KY 3809 8312 A tree was blown down on KY-557 near Sandy Hook. (JKL)

1907 100 1 S Wooster Wayne OH 4080 8193 Quarter size hail. (CLE)

1909 UNK 1 W Bakersville Coshocton OH 4036 8167 Trees down across County Road 2. Time estimated via radar. (PBZ)

1910 UNK 5 W Wooster Wayne OH 4079 8202 Public report of tree damage on multiple properties. Along with a downed limb ... 3 whole trees came down with 1 landing on a house and one landing on the road. (CLE)

1925 UNK 4 SE Grayson Lake State Park Carter KY 3819 8296 Utility company reports tree down on lines along Hilton Branch Road. Time estimated from radar. (RLX)

1932 58 5 W Lexington Fayette KY 3803 8460 ASOS station KLEX Lexington. (LMK)

1937 60 4 NNE Keene Jessamine KY 3798 8459 Estimated 50 to 60 mph winds from two different sources near the Jessamine and Fayette County line. (LMK)

1940 UNK 4 NNW Hamden Vinton OH 3922 8256 Utility company reports tree down on lines along State Route 683. Time estimated from radar and utility company outage report. (RLX)

1943 UNK 5 SSW Lexington Fayette KY 3797 8453 Large tree branch snapped and fell onto a home in South Lexington. (LMK)

1943 UNK Mount Carmel Fleming KY 3848 8364 Multiple trees were blown down on Praiter Road in Mount Carmel. (JKL)

1944 UNK 2 S Clintonville Clark KY 3805 8427 Large tree down on Clintonville Rd at Van Meter Rd. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

1949 UNK 2 WNW Winchester Clark KY 3801 8422 Power outage reported at a business. (LMK)

1950 82 3 NNW Winchester Clark KY 3803 8421 Mesonet station WNCH Winchester 3 NW. (LMK)

1950 UNK 3 SE Peoli Guernsey OH 4020 8140 Trees down (PBZ)

1954 UNK 1 E Willisburg Washington KY 3781 8511 Power lines down. (LMK)

1954 UNK 6 S Lexington Fayette KY 3796 8449 Multiple reports of tree damage and power lines down in South Lexington ... including on Jairus Drive. (LMK)

1958 UNK Hillsboro Fleming KY 3829 8366 A tree was blown down at 920 Sunset Road in Hillsboro. (JKL)

2001 UNK 2 NNE Spears Fayette KY 3790 8443 Large tree down across road on Crawley Lane. (LMK)

2018 UNK Mackville Washington KY 3773 8507 Large tree down and power lines down in Mackville. (LMK)

2019 UNK 1 WSW Winchester Clark KY 3799 8421 Twitter report of power lines snapped near the Taco Bell in Winchester. (LMK)

2023 100 2 W Brentwood Jefferson OH 4036 8077 (PBZ)

2025 100 E Wintersville Jefferson OH 4039 8070 (PBZ)

2026 UNK 1 SSW Glendwell Jefferson OH 4036 8066 Report down at intersection of Sinclair Avenue and John Scott Highway. Time estimated based on radar. (PBZ)

2030 UNK Pleasant Heights Jefferson OH 4036 8062 Report of trees down along roadway. Time estimated based on radar. (PBZ)

2034 UNK 7 S Clearfield Rowan KY 3806 8343 A tree was blown down at the Bangor Boat Ramp along Cave Run Lake 7 miles south of Clearfield. (JKL)

2035 UNK 1 E Elliottville Rowan KY 3818 8326 A tree was blown down east of Elliottville near the Elliott County line. (JKL)

2041 UNK Stanton Powell KY 3785 8386 Tree down on structure. Time estimated by radar. (JKL)

2042 UNK 1 WSW Knowlton Powell KY 3778 8385 Tree down along Darrel Randall Rd. Time estimated by radar. (JKL)

2043 UNK Buckeye Garrard KY 3772 8450 Trees down on Oscar Ray Rd as well as Tommy Murphy Rd. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2044 UNK 1 WSW Rosslyn Powell KY 3784 8382 Tree down along Brandy Lane. Time estimated by radar. (JKL)

2044 UNK Wellington Menifee KY 3792 8350 A tree was blown down and across Highway 746 in Wellington. Another tree was blown down and onto a powerline on Camp Judy Lane in Wellington. (JKL)

2044 UNK Frenchburg Menifee KY 3795 8362 A tree was blown down on Fletcher Road off Tar Ridge Road in Frenchburg. (JKL)

2047 UNK 3 E Buckeye Madison KY 3771 8445 Metal siding removed from home. (LMK)

2057 UNK 3 WNW Paint Lick Garrard KY 3763 8447 Trees down on Gillispie Pike and Hwy 1295. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2100 UNK 1 SE Perryville Boyle KY 3764 8493 Trees down in the 4500 block of Webster Rd. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2103 UNK 1 N Kingston Madison KY 3766 8425 Twitter post with picture of tree down in Richmond Battlefield Park. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2106 UNK 2 SSE Perryville Boyle KY 3763 8494 Several trees down in this area. Intersection of Mitchellsburg Rd and Harberson Ln. Bakers Ln. and around the 9700 and 10300 block of Lebanon Rd. (LMK)

2107 UNK 1 NE Torrent Wolfe KY 3773 8365 Tree down on vehicle along Highway 715. (JKL)

2107 UNK 1 ENE Koomer Ridge Camp Wolfe KY 3779 8361 Multiple trees down along Chimney Top Road in the Red River Gorge. (JKL)

2110 UNK 2 WSW Berea Madison KY 3756 8432 Few trees down near Ellipse Street as well as Walnut Meadow area. Very rough estimate time ... with strong outflow passing through around 5 PM and a new storm moving over. (LMK)

2115 UNK Sandy Hook Elliott KY 3809 8312 The 911 Call Center received 21 reports of trees down from around the county and 2 reports of downed power lines. Most of the trees were blown down along Brown Ridge Rd. (JKL)

2121 UNK Toliver Wolfe KY 3781 8346 Large healthy tree down on Stamper Branch Rd. (JKL)

2125 UNK 4 N Ellisburg Casey KY 3753 8494 Trees down on Elk Cave Branch Rd. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2130 UNK 1 WSW Moreland Lincoln KY 3749 8484 Trees down on Black Pike near Hustonville. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2130 UNK 5 E Martinsburg Knox OH 4025 8227 Trees uprooted and snapped. (CLE)

2138 UNK 1 SW Crab Orchard Lincoln KY 3746 8451 Trees down on Elm Street. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2142 UNK 1 ESE Junction City Lincoln KY 3758 8476 Trees down on Airport Road near Lincoln Boyle County line. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2145 UNK 2 S Rowland Lincoln KY 3748 8464 Trees down on Fairground Rd. Time estimated from radar. (LMK)

2200 UNK 4 E Johnstown Licking OH 4015 8261 Several branches down on property at Northridge Road. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

2200 UNK 4 E Johnstown Licking OH 4016 8261 Siding damage from another house on Northridge Road. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

2205 UNK Coshocton Coshocton OH 4026 8185 Tree damage in Coshocton. Time estimated via radar. (PBZ)

2206 UNK 1 W Ravenna Portage OH 4116 8127 Tree down. Time estimated from radar. (CLE)

2222 UNK 2 ESE New Guilford Coshocton OH 4028 8212 A tree was reported down on Route 402. (PBZ)

2240 UNK 1 E Portage Lakes Summit OH 4098 8152 Tree limb downed onto car and power lines. (CLE)

2245 UNK 1 E Green Summit OH 4095 8147 Numerous large limbs down ... including one fallen on a vehicle. Pictures shared via social media. Time estimated from radar. (CLE)

2245 UNK 2 WSW Brimfield Portage OH 4108 8139 Tree down on road. Time estimated from radar. (CLE)

2245 UNK 2 SE Elyria Lorain OH 4136 8209 Report from mPING: 3-inch tree limbs broken. (CLE)

2252 UNK 2 NE Brimfield Portage OH 4111 8133 Tree down on roadway. Time estimated from radar. (CLE)

2253 UNK Mogadore Summit OH 4105 8140 A tree fell and took down power lines and a pole at the corner of Norris Avenue and Dick Street. Picture shared on social media. Time estimated from radar. (CLE)

2255 UNK 1 ESE Brandenburg Meade KY 3799 8617 Trees down on powerlines on Old State Road in Brandenburg. (LMK)

2300 UNK Parma Cuyahoga OH 4138 8173 A couple of tree limbs downed in Parma. (CLE)

2322 UNK 1 W Mantua Portage OH 4128 8125 Tree down on road. Time estimated from radar. (CLE)

2325 UNK 1 ESE Lakewood Cuyahoga OH 4148 8177 Tree fell on vehicle. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2332 UNK 1 N South Euclid Cuyahoga OH 4154 8152 Tree and wires down. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2334 125 1 S Mozelle Leslie KY 3699 8340 A social media report of hail up to half dollar size was received with pictures. The hail fell off of US 421 at Elmer Lane between Mozelle and Helton closer to Mozelle. (JKL)

2336 UNK 6 NE Russellville Logan KY 3689 8681 Trees down near the intersection of Plainview Church Road and Proctor Mill Road. (LMK)

2358 UNK 4 S Creelsboro Clinton KY 3682 8519 Numerous trees down along US 127 in the north part of the county. (LMK)

0012 125 3 ESE Trimble Pulaski KY 3700 8469 Half dollar size hail was reported via social media with pictures included. The event occurred at a residence on Springs Road to the southwest of Somerset. (JKL)

0018 UNK 2 ESE Static Clinton KY 3662 8504 Trees down on Beatty Creek Road. (LMK)

[tron777]

Still 89 as of 4pm so we'll have to see if a sneaky 90 got in there once we see the climate report later.

[tron777]

Looks like CVG had another sneaky 90 today per the 5pm climate report. I got 89'ed.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 90, DAY 88 and CMH 93 today.

[tpweather]

Looks like CVG had another sneaky 90 today per the 5pm climate report. I got 89'ed.

Yes and anytime you stay south of these fronts in the summer and yes with a strong wind you get those sneaky 90's. Quite a bit of action in the Ohio Valley today and once again it looks like Sunday may have some additional rain. I picked out 6 cities early in the week for the 4 day period Thursday-Sunday. Some of those cities have done well while other not so much. I need a strong finish by 1159pm Sunday night to get an average of 1-2 inches.Should come down to the wire and maybe one last storm in Columbus on Sunday puts me over that threshold. Next week looks nice but still believe by next weekend and probably into the following week a period of warmer temps that may hang around for a period of time. If we see this happen then usually we need a decent tropical system to help bring some cooler air down or a strong surge of cool air from western and central Canada push through here but that can be tough sometimes in late August.

[Mjr]

Last 36 hrs 1.30 inches.
Won’t have to water the pumpkins for a few days
Question: Do we have a chance at record breaking cold temps next
Monday or Tuesday?

[tpweather]

Last 36 hrs 1.30 inches.
Won’t have to water the pumpkins for a few days
Question: Do we have a chance at record breaking cold temps next
Monday or Tuesday?

Good Morning and great question. I will need to look at the records for the date but my guess we may be close but come up a tad short. Still going to have several days in the 50's and maybe a day or two in the lower part of the 50's. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings the most likely coolest period. Daytime highs though may be close to a record for lowest daytime high but again I will need to look at the records.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and one last day of the humidity for several days. Really no changes overnight for the next few weeks and my guess this week the models will start to see signs of more tropical systems as expected during the peak of Hurricane season. I love reading posts or listening to some the well known met's across the country and how they see what is going on with the current pattern and extended as well. One thing to see different ideals further out but some of them are miles apart on what they are seeing at the moment or what has happened in the past few months.

On this forum the folks that forecast go about things in different ways and that is wonderful. Most folks like a baseball player will go through hot streaks but also have times where they swing and miss quite often. Certain patterns fit certain forecasters eyes.

This summer in general so far has been warm and if you average across the country it will be slightly above normal so far. Some of the met's which will remain nameless talk about wall to wall heat and have for most of the summer. That always scares me when you have the numbers in front of you and they say one thing but you continue on with your original forecast which is not a good look.

The Hurricane season and my guess we will end below normal on what most of the national met's have forecast but again we are just entering the peak so time will tell the story. The pacific ocean once again is so far below the normal its almost hard to grasp. The monsoon season in Asia is starting to head westward and a few weeks later than normal but this should help in the Atlantic over time to produce more tropical systems. The southwest USA monsoon season has really had a hard time in developing this year and that is not good for folks especially in the New Mexico and west Texas area as they need this period to add some rain totals. With the monsoon season not gaining hold that is why we are going to see the heat build in the south central states and some of that heat at times will try and work north and east like next weekend. Seeing signs of fall on the models in the pacific northwest and yes southern Canada and the northern plains. This is common this time of year as their fall is just around the corner.

[tron777]

Last 36 hrs 1.30 inches.
Won’t have to water the pumpkins for a few days
Question: Do we have a chance at record breaking cold temps next
Monday or Tuesday?

Here are the record lows for next week at CVG:

Monday 8/19: 49 from 1953
Tuesday 8/20: 49 from 1932
Wednesday 8/21: 45 from 1950
Thursday 8/22: 48 from 1950

Due to UHI, I think CVG will stay in the 50s but rural areas absolutely have a couple of nights in the upper 40s on the way. I think Tues and Wed mornings will be the coolest. As far as record cool mins for daytime highs.... you have to stay in the 60s this time of year to achieve that and I don't see that happening at all.

[tron777]

According to the boys.... we have a showery day in store by this afternoon. Their latest thinking:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A showery day is in store for the area as there is the
expectation that scattered to numerous SHRA, with perhaps an ISO
TS, will develop this afternoon and continue through this
evening before tapering off gradually after sunset. While the
potential for brief gusty winds may be possible in the strongest
cores, most spots will simply be impacted by SHRA, and possibly
several times through the course of the afternoon/evening.
Numerous small, cellular SHRA is expected to dot the landscape
today, bringing brief downpours and not much else.

With the expansive cloud cover and widespread SHRA, temps will
be held considerably cooler than has been the case recently as
highs only out in the mid to upper 70s.

I don't see much on radar at the moment. However, per water vapor imagery, you can see the upper low / trough dropping in from the Great Lakes. That should be enough to create some lift to spark some more showers this afternoon. I'd like to see a bit of heating from the sun, but I don't think we are going to see much sun today. CAPE is at around a 1000 J/KG so we'll see I guess. ILN has me at 80% POPS for this afternoon and 70% this evening. We shall see how it goes.

[tron777]

Looking longer term, after the fall like airmass this week, the heat looks to return by this weekend. Nice call Tim in the longer term since you mentioned this the other day. We may have a few more 90s coming starting this weekend and continuing in into next week to close out August. However, I still see a trough returning to kick off September so as has been the case for much of the summer, the heat should be short lived. I wish I had better news in the rainfall dept in the expended range. Hopefully all can get wet today because it's going to be a while before it rains again. 7-10 day range in my opinion.