Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 6:21 am Not expecting much sun today. I think we’ll stay in the 80s. Going with 88 at CVG.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 7:10 am Good Morning and some clouds this morning. Give credit to Kevin on channel 5 as he uses the Euro for much of his forecast but decided to cut temps compared to what that model showed. Seems every summer the Euro gets out of whack with temps and are way too high. The only time the Euro does well is when we have a hot spell usually in August or September when the dew points are lower and those temps can rise quite a bit each day. We understand that on this forum and why the gfs has been the model for this week. Yes this week has been toasty but nothing unusual and really just a tad above normal and not sure we even hit what the NWS considers a heat advisory.

I am going to play the media in this post and tell folks please and really please do not wear your winter coats this week. Without the media I would have no ideal how to dress each day.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 8:03 am Good Morning Les and I hope you enjoy your trip. No doubt we get the highest temps just ahead of a cold front and that looks to be Friday and Saturday. Still not sure we get to the mid-90's as the high dew points tend to keep a cap on temps. Hopefully we can get some rain Sunday and like we have mentioned on here for about a month we could see that sudden drought after a rather wet spring. This happens because the spring has been wonderful in terms of water and the vegetation is doing well and then we shut off the rain and boom many things turn brown. We still have another week or so I believe to stay away from that but without many chances for rain it can happen.

BTW a nice frost advisory for parts of North Dakota and yes this has happened in the past in that region of the country but not every year by any means. Next week a little tricky and not sure models have the correct pattern down yet and give it a few more days and then worry about next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 9:28 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 8:03 am Good Morning Les and I hope you enjoy your trip. No doubt we get the highest temps just ahead of a cold front and that looks to be Friday and Saturday. Still not sure we get to the mid-90's as the high dew points tend to keep a cap on temps. Hopefully we can get some rain Sunday and like we have mentioned on here for about a month we could see that sudden drought after a rather wet spring. This happens because the spring has been wonderful in terms of water and the vegetation is doing well and then we shut off the rain and boom many things turn brown. We still have another week or so I believe to stay away from that but without many chances for rain it can happen.

BTW a nice frost advisory for parts of North Dakota and yes this has happened in the past in that region of the country but not every year by any means. Next week a little tricky and not sure models have the correct pattern down yet and give it a few more days and then worry about next week.

Thanks Tim! Channel 12 has us getting 12 days of 90+ in a row before we cool down. Today would be day #4 at CVG if we hit that mark. I looked it up, and the longest streak of 90 degree days in a row is 17 set back in 2011.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 11:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 9:28 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 8:03 am Good Morning Les and I hope you enjoy your trip. No doubt we get the highest temps just ahead of a cold front and that looks to be Friday and Saturday. Still not sure we get to the mid-90's as the high dew points tend to keep a cap on temps. Hopefully we can get some rain Sunday and like we have mentioned on here for about a month we could see that sudden drought after a rather wet spring. This happens because the spring has been wonderful in terms of water and the vegetation is doing well and then we shut off the rain and boom many things turn brown. We still have another week or so I believe to stay away from that but without many chances for rain it can happen.

BTW a nice frost advisory for parts of North Dakota and yes this has happened in the past in that region of the country but not every year by any means. Next week a little tricky and not sure models have the correct pattern down yet and give it a few more days and then worry about next week.

Thanks Tim! Channel 12 has us getting 12 days of 90+ in a row before we cool down. Today would be day #4 at CVG if we hit that mark. I looked it up, and the longest streak of 90 degree days in a row is 17 set back in 2011.

The 12 days in a row will not happen and even if it were to occur mainly low 90's and most days not even getting to a heat advisory. They love to run with those 90's and again this is nothing new for this time of year and really mid-late June we normally have higher dew points than we are looking at and many time mid-upper 70's for dew while we are only in the low 70's. Part of that is we have not had much rain lately.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 11:56 am Exactly Les. May have a few more pop up storms today compared to the last two days especially for folks who missed out completely the last few days. Again these pop up,rain out and then you are good. I would love to see one here around 313pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:18 pm The 12Z GFS wants to get us into the ridge rider pattern with some MCS action next week. Sure hope that is correct. No, we don't need the severe wx but we do need the rain.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:18 pm The 12Z GFS wants to get us into the ridge rider pattern with some MCS action next week. Sure hope that is correct. No, we don't need the severe wx but we do need the rain.

Les that is possible and one reason is the amount of moisture heading into Mexico and Texas moving west. This can get the flow from that area and head north along the western plains and then once in the Dakota's have these MCS's form and move east/southeast. Again no way this far out to predict where these will form and then head this way but there is things happening over the next few days that at lease we can see this happening.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:36 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:18 pm The 12Z GFS wants to get us into the ridge rider pattern with some MCS action next week. Sure hope that is correct. No, we don't need the severe wx but we do need the rain.

Les that is possible and one reason is the amount of moisture heading into Mexico and Texas moving west. This can get the flow from that area and head north along the western plains and then once in the Dakota's have these MCS's form and move east/southeast. Again no way this far out to predict where these will form and then head this way but there is things happening over the next few days that at lease we can see this happening.

It'll depend on the positioning of the ridge. If it's to southwest it should be game on.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:36 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:18 pm The 12Z GFS wants to get us into the ridge rider pattern with some MCS action next week. Sure hope that is correct. No, we don't need the severe wx but we do need the rain.

Les that is possible and one reason is the amount of moisture heading into Mexico and Texas moving west. This can get the flow from that area and head north along the western plains and then once in the Dakota's have these MCS's form and move east/southeast. Again no way this far out to predict where these will form and then head this way but there is things happening over the next few days that at lease we can see this happening.

It'll depend on the positioning of the ridge. If it's to southwest it should be game on.

No doubt and I believe the ridge will be further to the southwest and one reason is over the past few weeks plenty of rain and cooler temps in the northern plains which would make it a tad harder for the ridge to expand further north than what models are showing. Models still have problem with recent soil conditions and do catch on about 3-5 days before and event usually.