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Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 7:03 am
by tron777
AWESOME!!! That looks so beautiful! Anyone else capture anything last night? Look again tonight too. Clear skies are a lock for tonight.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 7:31 am
by tron777
We have some light showers and perhaps a t-storm for northern posters moving into the region right now. In a couple of hours, it's outta here and we're left with clearing skies and 30 mph wind gusts this afternoon. Temps near 70. U40s to L50s again tonight and an awesome Mother's Day ahead with low to mid 70s expected.
Monday late in the day and certainly by the evening hours, more rain and t-storms are in the forecast with a very wet Tues ahead. The action ends early Wed then we get a break for Thurs. Next system due in with more rain and storms by the end of next week. Severe wx is currently not expected but if that changes you'll be the first to know, as always!
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 8:00 am
by tpweather
Good Morning Les and forecast looks good. Looks like rainfall totals locally probably in the .5-1 inch range locally late Monday through early Wednesday. I agree severe weather looks unlikely but never say never but this system looks more like a decent rain maker. Then again by late next week another system looks to arrive. Temps will be fine through the period for mid-May
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 8:11 am
by tron777
These pics of the Northern Lights were sent to me by one of our wonderful forum members, wrmwxfreak (Casie). Her location is in the Middletown area if I remember correctly. Thank you Casie for sharing these and allowing us to see them. Gorgeous photos!!!
Northern Lights1.jpg
Northern Lights2.jpg
Northern Lights3.jpg
Northern Lights4.jpg
Northern Lights5.jpg
Northern Lights6.jpg
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 8:12 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat May 11, 2024 8:00 am
Good Morning Les and forecast looks good. Looks like rainfall totals locally probably in the .5-1 inch range locally late Monday through early Wednesday. I agree severe weather looks unlikely but never say never but this system looks more like a decent rain maker. Then again by late next week another system looks to arrive. Temps will be fine through the period for mid-May
Good morning Tim! I like those rainfall amounts at the present time and your thoughts on temps are spot on! We will be within 3-5 degrees of normal most days so seasonal temps for sure. Love it!
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 8:16 am
by tron777
Trev posted this on his FB page this morning just so you can see the temps for the next 10 days graphically.
10 Day Temps.jpg
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 8:21 am
by tpweather
Les those temps are real close to normal and again maybe a day late next week or weekend the temp may be cooler depending on cloud cover and rain but overall mid-May looks like mid-May should be weather wise. BTW the only problem with the weather is my sinus problems which many folks have in this part of the world. Mine are worse with a wet pattern like we are in at the moment
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 10:10 am
by tron777
0.01" at CVG, here, and at the Boone Co mesonet site when that weak frontal system passed thru a bit earlier. Sunshine is knocking in our doorstep from the West. Once that happens and the atmosphere gets mixed out a little bit, dews will drop and the winds should also pick up.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 10:43 am
by MVWxObserver
Beautiful pics and thank you for sharing, Angela and Casie!
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 11:36 am
by MVWxObserver
An aunt of mine who resides in a condo in north Greenville and whose power went out at 8 o'clock Tues night from a tornado, texted my Mom saying that it was restored at 8:30 Wed night. Very thankful that she and others in the area are back on.
Her oldest daughter who resides in Hollansburg, OH near Greenville has two freezers and so, thankfully, my aunt's food was all spared.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat May 11, 2024 6:06 pm
by tron777
It's been a busy day today. Saw Harper in a play at the Milford Youth Theater. They did a play Frozen, Jr. Then I got the grass cut today while the temps felt good and also a nice breeze! That way I can dedicate tomorrow to Mom of course.
My Brother just fished the Cabela's NTC Championship out of Lorain, OH on Lake Sire and out of 280 some boats, they got 24th place! We are so proud of him! He will get a ring, a nice plaque and a check. I don't know how much since the pay out is not listed on thewalleyefederation.com's website.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun May 12, 2024 8:51 am
by Trevor
Thinking a 1/5 risk for severe is looking like a good bet for Tue. Planning to add one into my afternoon forecast update today.
Euro is most aggressive.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun May 12, 2024 9:29 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and a beautiful Mother's Day. Another busy week as more rain expected. How much rain through next weekend and I would probably go 1-2 inches before all is said and done. Like all forecasts this is just the average and most likely totals by next weekend. Some folks may get less and a few folks more. We should be able to handle 1-2 inches and hopefully the farmers have had a few nice days to get some crops in the ground. No heat wave for May that I can see as rain continues in the southern plains and southeast and that is key in getting a heat wave started. Until it starts to dry up in those areas and it will then we can continue to put aside the heat though we can still be above normal in temps but much of that is overnight lows should be higher with more water vapor in the air.
Hope everyone has a wonderful day and enjoy some outdoor activities.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun May 12, 2024 10:17 am
by tron777
Happy Mother's Day to all Mom's out there on our forum! A wonderful day in progress and I hope everyone can enjoy time spent with thier Mom's.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun May 12, 2024 1:58 pm
by MVWxObserver
HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY AV MOMS!! 
Currently 68 here in G'ville and progged for around 75.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun May 12, 2024 6:03 pm
by tron777
I had a nice Mother's Day with my Mom. We went to Church this morning and then breakfast as we do most Sunday's, and then I came home after that and detailed my car. Inside and out, washed, waxed, the whole thing. It'll look good until I drive in the rain on Tuesday.
Mom and I went out for an early dinner after that.
Okay so weatherwise... most of Monday looks good with temps around 80 or so. We get wet late Monday / Mon night into Tues morning. Then a break then another round for Tues afternoon and evening. Wed looks wet esp the first half of the day but the afternoon may start to dry us out (I hope lol). Thurs looks good then another system to track on Friday. Lingering showers also for next weekend but at this point, it doesn't look like a washout.
As far as severe wx chances go, I know Trev mentioned that he is keeping an eye on Tuesday. Nothing for us has been outlooked as of this post from the SPC. Based on what I am seeing, I'm not sure myself. This is because if we see morning rain / clouds on Tuesday, how much of a break do we get before the PM round comes in? ILN only has us in the lower 70s for highs on Tues and if correct, that would imply too much clouds and rain for decent CAPE. It is May, so we need to always keep one eye open for sure but as of now, not so sure I see severe wx as of yet. As usual, we'll see!
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun May 12, 2024 6:21 pm
by tron777
75 / 46 at CVG today. Similar temps here.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun May 12, 2024 10:25 pm
by MVWxObserver
CVG reached 76, DAY 75 and CMH 73 today.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 13, 2024 4:39 am
by tron777
Good morning folks! No changes to the above thinking other then this coming weekend. Can we get the Friday system out of here in time to leave us with a nice weekend of temps near 80 and dry conditions? Stay tuned... otherwise my post from yesterday still looks valid for today thru Friday.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 13, 2024 6:24 am
by Trevor
I issued a 1/5 risk of severe for my coverage area tomorrow. SPC has nothing but I see enough evidence to support it. Details found on my page.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 13, 2024 6:29 am
by tron777
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2024 6:24 am
I issued a 1/5 risk of severe for my coverage area tomorrow. SPC has nothing but I see enough evidence to support it. Details found on my page.
Good morning Trev! I did not get a chance to see the latest Euro. Is it still the aggressive model? I'm still on the edge with this personally. I just think that there will be a lack of instability. Should see some decent shear and helicity though which is my guess as to why you did what you did on your FB Page? Also, lapse rates maybe kind of poor too. As usual, we'll see! Sometimes these marginal events do end up being halfway decent more then the hyped up ones.
The boys also believe that the threat for severe wx will be low. See a snippet of their overnight AFD below.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will be getting organized over Missouri tonight,
before reaching Western Kentucky by late Tuesday. As moisture
and lift increase in the circulation ahead of the low, showers
will begin to impact the area tonight, with showers and a few
thunderstorms becoming widespread Tuesday afternoon. Have
backed off on timing of widespread showers relative to previous
model runs. Severe thunderstorm threat appears to be low due to
weak shear and relatively low CAPE under 1000 J/KG. Slow moving
cells, favorable thermodynamic profiles showing tall skinny
CAPE, and ample PWAT point to the possibility of heavy
downpours.
After mild lows around 60 tonight, readings reaching the near
normal low and mid 70s on Tuesday will be limited by clouds and
precip.
PROPS to you Trev if you score one with the forecast!
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 13, 2024 6:36 am
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2024 6:29 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2024 6:24 am
I issued a 1/5 risk of severe for my coverage area tomorrow. SPC has nothing but I see enough evidence to support it. Details found on my page.
Good morning Trev! I did not get a chance to see the latest Euro. Is it still the aggressive model? I'm still on the edge with this personally. I just think that there will be a lack of instability. Should see some decent shear and helicity though which is my guess as to why you did what you did on your FB Page? Also, lapse rates maybe kind of poor too. As usual, we'll see! Sometimes these marginal events do end up being halfway decent more then the hyped up ones.
The boys also believe that the threat for severe wx will be low. See a snippet of their overnight AFD below.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will be getting organized over Missouri tonight,
before reaching Western Kentucky by late Tuesday. As moisture
and lift increase in the circulation ahead of the low, showers
will begin to impact the area tonight, with showers and a few
thunderstorms becoming widespread Tuesday afternoon. Have
backed off on timing of widespread showers relative to previous
model runs. Severe thunderstorm threat appears to be low due to
weak shear and relatively low CAPE under 1000 J/KG. Slow moving
cells, favorable thermodynamic profiles showing tall skinny
CAPE, and ample PWAT point to the possibility of heavy
downpours.
After mild lows around 60 tonight, readings reaching the near
normal low and mid 70s on Tuesday will be limited by clouds and
precip.
PROPS to you Trev if you score one with the forecast!
CAMs also support a Very Low Risk (equivalent to SPC marginal). Nothing crazy but I do see enough evidence for possible isolated severe.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 13, 2024 7:00 am
by Trevor
I definitely agree with ILN re: heavy downpours. Here's the HRRR to help illustrate that. Some areas will likely score...possibly big...tomorrow in the rainfall department.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 13, 2024 7:00 am
by Trevor
Here's the NAM which may represent the localized nature even better.
Re: May 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon May 13, 2024 7:09 am
by Trevor
Euro has a nice band of thunderstorms tomorrow evening. As ILN stated and I agree, lower CAPE values will keep the ceiling fairly low for this one. 500-1000j/kg likely...somewhere in there. This favors isolated, pulse strong/marginally severe storms versus longer-lasting intense thunderstorms.
EDIT: attached is a lightning density map.